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2026-08-04 10:34:48
🏷️ 20260804 今日关注
SK Hynix, $MU , and Samsung have sold out of 2027 capacity for DRAM/HBM. $SNDK, Samsung, Micron current annual NAND capacity has been sold out, with Kioxia and SK Hynix expected to finalize allocations by August 2026. - Customers are being allocated only 60–70% of the volumes they initially requested - industry insiders pointed out that 2027 will enter the most severe moment of memory shortage - Allocation amounts are mostly decided, but final shipment pricing will be determined closer to delivery Source: Digitimes, citing industry sources. Hard to see those memory "oversupply" claims in early-mid 2027 when they're all sold out of capacity already.
2026-08-04 07:35:14
🏷️ 20260804 今日关注
Be Citadel: > calls for unexpected rate hike few days ago, causing market panic > reaches out and buys billions of liquidated hedge fund AI assets > no rate hike > “Bull market drivers are fully intact”
2026-08-04 05:16:45
🏷️ 20260804 今日关注
The bears have gone back into hibernation
2026-08-02 11:42:29
🏷️ 20260802 今日关注
Trump announced that US has cancelled its attack on Iran. And that they’ve agreed to the perimeters of a deal to open the Strait and end the nuclear program. Anyone else feel like they’ve aged a few years in the past 6 months?
2026-08-01 14:24:58
🏷️ 20260801 今日关注
$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs: Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory. And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand. This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expanding to CW, especially as CPO ramps. I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.
2026-08-01 06:52:21
🏷️ 20260801 今日关注
The media framing and X reactions around Leopold are egregious. Framing his successful multi-year thesis from $SNDK to $BE as a "collapse" or "failure". After July's surprising crash, then personally attacking him on top is just pathetic to witness. It's almost like everyone is cheering for the downfall of others. Yes, July's crash exposed problems with SA’s leverage, liquidity management, and hedging. But his current YTD performance remains +80%, ranking among the best performing hedge funds. And he still has public equities after all this (just removed leverage). I think he's doing something unique while being successful at it. And this draws the envy of others.
2026-08-01 03:16:17
🏷️ 20260801 今日关注
As a earnings recap: $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT guided a 2026 combined capex forecast to ~$720-$745 Billion. Up from $695-$725B Billion previously. Amazon: $220B Google: $195B-$205B Meta: $130B-$145B Microsoft: $175B We've already seen significant deleveraging and retail/institutional margin liquidations (maybe it continues for more time, who knows). But medium-long term, I'm not quite sure how anyone can be bearish the upstream semis or neoclouds. Given each hyperscaler has flagged either compute shortages, rising cloud demand + pricing power, or increased spending for chips/networking. My "bottleneck" thesis with many of these upstream semi supply chains is that when trillions in capital flows into things from InP substrates or memory (which were both treated as cheap commodities) or even energy. Lot of these current AI names that were treated as useless before in telecom cycles or even toilet sellers. Gets rerated when their inflection period hits and capex flows into their balance sheets. As seen with $NVDA GPUs past few years, memory this year, CPUs/MLCCs next few years, CPO in 2027, Glass Substrates in 2027, 800V in 2027, and so on.
2026-08-01 00:18:47
🏷️ 20260801 今日关注
$RDDT ER in a nutshell: Revenue: $804.9M vs. $730.4M (expected). EPS: $1.25 vs. ~$0.95. Net income: $252.8M vs. $196.5M Q3 guidance: Revenue: $860–870M vs. 829.1M Adjusted EBITDA: $385-395M vs. $369M Blowout financials, market always like to explain the drop 22.6% off some new BS narrative. Last quarter: "AI will disrupt Reddit causing revenue loss!" This quarter: "See, DAU fell .6%!" (proceeds to ignore any revenue/profitability growth)
2026-07-31 18:10:30
🏷️ 20260731 今日关注
Just a TLDR of this week: Media: Hyperscalers overbuilt and are selling excess compute. -> $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, and $AMZN: Demand for compute far exceeds capacity. Capex go brrr. Institutions: Emergency rate hike or 3x rate hikes, it's all over. -> Kevin Warsh: No rate Hike. Retail/Media: AI is crashing because it's a bubble. -> Citadel looking to buy AI leveraged hedge funds positions: 👀 Jim Cramer: Sell all your leveraged DC stocks. -> Koreans: SK Hynix +30%, Samsung +26.81%
2026-07-31 16:57:11
🏷️ 20260731 今日关注
Now that I think of it more, $POET optical interposer piece is actually a little more material than I thought with $SIVE. Originally the wording was "readiness" for EOY 2026. But $POET upgraded that wording, by stating "production" with Sivers lasers projected EOY 2026. So a volume orders from across $JBL to $POET, should hit in H1 2027. Which makes a bit of sense, since Sivers did raise an institutional oversubscribed round for future mass production. On a side note, can't believe it's already August and 5 months left until 2027... Which was my inflection window for glass substrates, CPO, 800v, and new architectures to ramp.
2026-07-31 16:25:39
🏷️ 20260731 今日关注
For $XFAB ER transcript: Just to recap, my idea on $XFAB foundry growth opportunities stemmed from SiC for 800v and photonixfab/MTP for CPO applicability. - $XFAB: "We are making progress in co-packaged optics". - "The transition to 800v... is expected to support demand for both SiC and GaN... for XFAB" So those analysts/people that were confidently bearposting about $XFAB that they had "0 exposure to 800V, photonics, CPO" just turned out plainly wrong. At the time I shared my idea, industry materials showed ASE and others cited photonixfab + XFAB as an upcoming CPO player in EU. And filings showed they had exposure names like $NVTS / $POWI in general. So glad $XFAB went out to explicitly clear things up to state they were developing in CPO/800v. Okay back to the ER: - "We continue to expect photonics volume production to start in 2028". Company currently has three silicon photonics projects in development with key partners. I thought it would ramp sometime in H2 2027, but was probably early by a few months. - Several new data center design wins, eg. 3 new SiC design wins (consistent with general 2027 ramp as 800v deployment takes off). So once those ramp in 2027-2028, (markets tend to price things ahead of time), I'd expect $XFAB to be rerated based on growth opportunities. TLDR: - Current revenue numbers not as impressive. - $XFAB confirmed direct exposure to CPO and 800V shifts (biggest win for thesis) - 800V exposure opportunities for SiC (should be 2027) - Timeline is 2028 ramp for photonics volume production Happy exposure thesis to CPO/800V was confirmed from this ER. Might be a bit of waiting for revenue ramp.
2026-07-31 15:14:23
🏷️ 20260731 今日关注
Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN: Amazon: - Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung) - Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the same in 2027. - Most incoming 2027 capacity is already reserved, with substantial 2028 capacity also reserved. Mostly read through on upstream semis. $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $MSFT all identified compute shortage. All the narratives a few weeks earlier was "excess compute" from Meta and others + hyperscalers cutting back on spend... All BS. Amazon earnings was very bullish on AI semi trade. AXTI: - AXT to double InP capacity during 2026. Then double again in 2027. This is expected to make AXT "by far the largest indium phosphide producer in the world." - LFG - Q2 rev was $47.6M, the highest quarterly revenue in AXT history (InP revenue reached a record $30.7M, from DC applications.) - Revenue increased 77% sequentially and 164% year over year. - InP revenue-capacity targets: $60M per quarter exiting 2026. - $130M per quarter exiting 2027 That $130m target could be hiked too since management stated they find "whatever ways to increase that capacity expansion" - Management said the reported backlog remains well above $100M, but that number no longer reflects all available demand. "Customer demand continues to outpace supply, no matter how fast we add capacity." 800G/1.6T is driving the current cycle, while NPO/CPO extends it beyond 2027. Also they're targeting 50%-plus gross margin: "We should definitely be targeting a number that begins with a five." China demand more than doubled, and their agreements with Casela, $COHR and $LITE did not materially drive Q2. This is not even considering my projected massive ASP hikes yet as InP substrates get more bottlenecked. TLDR: - Amazon too much compute demands, needs capex to fufill it, so upstream semis go brrr. - AXT world largest InP substrate supplier, high gross margins, expansion, and supply can't keep up with demand. Bullish on demand side from Amazon + capex. Bullish on upstream optical supply chains from too much demand.
2026-07-31 02:31:07
🏷️ 20260731 今日关注
Did Citadel really just liquidate Situational Awareness… Then brought up entire markets the next day? $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% Amid many others. This has gotta be one of the wildest liquidations I’ve seen.
2026-07-30 16:10:00
🏷️ 20260730 今日关注
There's a lot of stupid commentary around Leopold raising funds. After names like $BE, $SNDK, $SHAZ, and others all had very sharp drawdowns in July. Just remember... here's a man in finance that's 1. 6'5 2. Blue Eyes 3. Hedge Fund Probably better looking than you, and was up 439% through June YTD. Regarding the drawdown, Aschenbrenner acknowledged that the fund had "not been immune" to the market turmoil, particularly in Asia. FT separately reported that leverage amplified both its extraordinary gains and recent losses. He described the sell-off as potentially the best buying opportunity since early 2025 I'd agree with him and hope he succeeds with the raise. Since a lot of the current selloff looks like it overshot its mark through forced deleveraging.
2026-07-30 14:52:06
🏷️ 20260730 今日关注
Just some interesting takeaways from $FORM earnings call on CPO: Since they attributed systems revenue nearly doubled due to: "accelerating growth in co-packaged optics or CPO". Q1 2026: "we now expect 2026 CPO revenues to come in at the high end of the $10 million to $20 million range" Q2 2026 (now): "expect to exceed that range by the end of the third quarter, and to significantly exceed the $20 million level for the year overall." Management stated "We’re seeing some significant acceleration in this [CPO] business". Q: CPO adoption outlook. Are we perhaps expecting the timeline to accelerate a little bit? A: "What I would say is there’s acceleration here in the very short term." But management stated there's not a significant pull-in on timelines. Citing production infrastructure (not just R&D) for: - The growing volumes of CPO chips planned for later this year + test insertion for scale-up and scale-out switches. - Seems like that CPO piece flows through $TSM COUPE [ likely maps to $NVDA CPO products] - "The CPO piece does flow through that 10% customer" So now, test is ramping given management cited growing volumes of CPO chips. "The rapid recent growth of our CPO business is an exciting development, which we believe represents the very early stages of widespread adoption of silicon photonics in the broader semiconductor industry" TLDR: Fundamentally, CPO as a theme is very early, and should start to go brrr soon since it's starting to show up in earnings now (equipment/test players usually appear up first before optical engines / laser volumes ramp). Personally once all the deleveraging stops, I think markets will start to care more.
2026-07-30 07:13:55
🏷️ 20260730 今日关注
Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures" - Quartely capex was $41B, roughly 2/3rds were "short lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs" - Expects capex spend will be over $50 billion for next quarter - Capex Guidance at ~$175 billion and 2027 capex roughly the same. Spending plans unchanged and in line. - "Extending the estimated useful life of our data centers from 15 to 25 years" - "We will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on $AMD Helios and $NVDA Vera Rubin" - "Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity" Meta: - Capex $130-$145 billion (narrowed range), from $125B-$145B. - Meta is receiving offers at a "significant premium" to what they paid for it (compute scarcity, positive for neoclouds like $IREN / $NBIS ) - Expects significant portion of compute (like the 1 GW DC in El Paso) to develop internal models. - Meta has multiple ROI-positive uses for additional compute across its core business (internally, not Meta Compute) - "Finally, we believe that overall industry capacity is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future" - "The industry has under-built historically for the wave of AI adoption, making existing capacity, including our own, extremely valuable" - Susan Li TLDR: - $MSFT and $GOOGL largely sustaining AI capex buildout while remaining FCF positive or through operating incomes. - $META flags available compute materially below demand at least through 2027. And $MSFT also flags compute demand far exceeds supply. - All three hyperscaler capex largely in line with Google hiking capex figures. AI selloff seems extremely overblown now, hyperscalers continuing capex in line (with Microsoft being FCF positive) or even hiked with $GOOGL. Compute scarcity is visible throughout every single hyperscaler ER.
2026-07-30 05:27:33
🏷️ 20260730 今日关注
$AXTI enters long term agreement with $LITE for InP substrates. Lumentum has agreed to pay a deposit of $43.5M as a reservation for capacity.
2026-07-30 04:03:30
🏷️ 20260730 今日关注
To show solidarity with the $IREN holders: I now own 1 share of IREN.
2026-07-30 02:10:55
🏷️ 20260730 今日关注
Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. So far so good, since markets would have sold off on an immediate rate hike (seem to have largely frontran hike expectations off already). Think everyone is waiting for the Fed Chair commentary now.
2026-07-30 01:07:41
🏷️ 20260730 今日关注
US Gov to take 1% stake in $GFS, and award them $300m for the US CHIPS ACT. This is actually a strong read through on $SIVE / $LITE, given this CHIPS ACT is specifically aimed at advancing CPO + Silicon Photonics. (For reference, Sivers and Lumentum were the only two public laser suppliers named in GFS presentation slides. Sivers laser arrays was named recently as a reference design in Globalfoundries SCALE for CPO). Per US Gov announcement: "GlobalFoundries will receive up to $300 million to accelerate domestic CPO R&D by two to three years" (NIST) Never thought we'd see the US Gov / $INTC foundry playbook for CPO in specific...
2026-07-29 06:25:27
🏷️ 20260729 今日关注
I personally see it as extreme short term deleveraging that overshot many individual names. - $BE to $TER reported blowout results, with Bloom reporting 166% Y/Y rev growth + expanding margins + raised 2026 guidance... Teradyne reported 104% Y/Y revenue growth with 300%+ EPS growth. Your leading optical players over in China reported amazing preliminary earnings + extremely strong read through for the Western photonics sector. Think earnings season tend to remind markets about continued AI acceleration. I'm expecting $LITE, $SNDK / SK Hynix, and sector leader ERs to continue that trend. But it does feel like markets are rewarding existing acceleration more rather than future growth a year out over near-term revisions as seen with $AMKR. But as a TLDR, looks very positive for the themes I'm tracking. - Then you have $GOOGL capex raised to $195-$205B, which is typically the biggest AI demand signal from hyperscalers. - 77% 0bps change est. next FOMC decision from prediction markets. Trump administration on Monday called for the Fed to lower interest rates. So your 3x rate hikes fears this year seem kinda overblown. - Chinese fears from DUV to $CXMT overflooding are extremely overblown as well. We see this with every sector from time to time until people remember that lasers or HBM bottlenecks for a reason. As for personal thoughts, it was unhealthy seeing everything rise up or down together, especially with these themes. But I'm personally not worried since I have full conviction in my names, especially optical interconnects like $SIVE or $AAOI. $META compute and $GOOGL GCP margins/growth shows increasing demand for $NBIS and similar neocloud business models. $META + other hyperscaler notes around LTAs with $SNDK and Samsung/SK Hynix, $MU point to structural memory demand. Can go on and on... But when you have Jim Cramer telling every margined DC trader to "sell everything" at market open and news saying there's an AI bubble. I do hate it when others say "it's dropping so sell". My belief is that the important thing to look is accelerating revenue/EPS growth. And if that thesis stays in-tact with revenue acceleration in line with hyperscaler capex. TLDR: I see signs of AI demand / revenue acceleration, hyperscaler capex is one of the most important things to track. And my guess is that we'll see the theme recover broadly. But I can't predict what hour, day, or week that happens.
2026-07-29 02:45:19
🏷️ 20260729 今日关注
FCC set to ban Chinese imports of humanoid and quadruped robots per Reuters. To protect American Humanoid/Robotics programs. Agility Robotics ( $CCXI ) and other US humanoid players should be happy to hear this.
2026-07-27 11:17:03
🏷️ 20260727 今日关注
Wow, $CMXT is up a very normal +469.98% after going public today. Now valuing it at ~$487.31 billion, up from $85.5 billion. Did any of my Chinese followers buy into the IPO?
2026-07-27 09:12:57
🏷️ 20260727 今日关注
Nvidia in talks to backstop $250B worth of OpenAI DC financing. - Softbank’s SB energy develops 10 GW Ohio campus - OpenAI signs long term lease - $NVDA guarantees $250B in financing - OpenAI discussing separate agreement to buy up to $350B in Nvidia chips. Not quite sure if this circular financing is healthy long term, but given the massive size of AI infrastructure spending… Feels like capex beneficiaries will be extremely happy.
2026-07-27 04:12:11
🏷️ 20260727 今日关注
Just some TLDR news: - $CXMT IPO tomorrow if you like Chinese memory. - Samsung Electronics reportedly struggling to secure large FC-BGA substrates. Ibiden (4062) reportedly requested LTA guarantees, Samsung Electro-Mechanics sought prepayments. - Samsung + $AVGO sign memory + foundry AI framework through 2030, expected to exceed $200b - $SOI expects FY2027 silicon photonics revenue to double compared to the previous year, surpassing Morgan Stanley's 60% growth projection. Photonics thesis go brrr. - SK Group + $NVDA sign $500B+ partnership to build out AI DCs and HBM4 memory. - SKC Absolics glass core delay to 2027 from reports. Targeting final reliability testing EOY, mass production next year. So if you're curious, this does push back some ramps from $LPK and others (hence drop on ER). - $QCOM price hikes by double digits for smartphone processors, due to upstream supplier hike pricing. - $META expected to issue $12B in project-level/SPV financing for El Paso, Texas AI DC expansion - Naver announced a $10 billion investment from $NVDA and Brookfield to construct a 1GW-scale AI Factory. Near term plan is 200MW by 2028. (Nvidia $1B investment, Brookfield nonbinding $9B) - 64GB DDR5 server modules rises 146% versus end-June contract pricing - $INTC brought forward 14A process mass production by a year, risk production H2 2027 and volume production in 2028, vs. 2029 HVM expectations. - Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins $200m MLCC order (existing bottleneck). - $AMD (the Bandana bottleneck), announces Helios is in full production with shipments Q3 2026. Including an up to 2GW MI455X GPU deployment with Anthropic and a 6GW infrastructure rollout with OpenAI. Gave new >50% CAGR TAM to $220B by 2030 from $26b in 2025 for CPU market. Rolls out optical interconnects for Mi500 in 2027. From channel checks, AMD is heading down to the CPO route (seems likely to use Ayar). - $ORCL wins $7B Department of War enterprise software contract - JX metal doubles semi target capacity at its KR subsidary with a 4B yen investment, with operations to begin H2 2027, amid surging demand from major customers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - Tungsten hexafluoride spot prices surged 2.1-2.5x Y/Y following Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Gas announcing permanent production halts. Fluorinated liquid supply faces a vacuum as 3M plans to exit PFAS production. - From the four optical chipmaker earnings, Yuanjie/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/Dongshan Precision: no major order cuts, 1.6T shipments expected to accelerate into 2027. Optical chip suppliers expected to capture outsized margins from shortages. - Unitree Robotics Targets 30,000 Humanoid Robot Production Capacity by 2026. Read through on humanoid TAM scaling like $CCXI and others. - Energy storage lithium batteries orders increase first half orders by 2,900% apparently in China. Not as familiar with EVE Energy and other battery makers.
2026-07-25 04:22:41
🏷️ 20260725 今日关注
There you have it, $GOOGL Waymo to explore split with $UBER per FT. My view last year was that Uber partnering with Waymo was a bad choice… since Uber would just serve as a distribution funnel that Google needed as they scale up. And that $NBIS Avride, other neutral players, or vertical integration would be the optimal path forward. Now their own partner Waymo looks to be the strongest disruptor to Uber.
2026-07-25 00:21:59
🏷️ 20260725 今日关注
Jensen from $NVDA has joined X for the first time to share his letter on open models.
2026-07-24 08:11:40
🏷️ 20260724 今日关注
Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization). There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI". Most interesting take was: "Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years". There's a lot of CPO + RNG/MRC optimization TAM cannablization arguments for pluggables recently, but looks like it's here to stay. And that there's going to be multiple architecture paths going forward (CEO also NPO alongside CPO as an major opportunity in the next 5 years). As for challenges: Vickram stated manufacturing capacity + availability of raw material is the main bottleneck. Likely referencing the existing bottlenecks with upstream CW laser ramp. From the podcast, seems like a large focus was on pluggable markets due to larger near-term TAM (which is understandable with $JBL + other players), with CPO being the north star. So it might be interesting if $SIVE M&A ambitions were to acquire more pluggable optical transceiver IP, like what $LITE did with Cloud Light. But TLDR: Lot of different paths moving forward, pluggable here to stay, CPO seems like North Star for where industry is heading. Feels like there's room for every qualified laser supplier given the industry demand is growing faster than what they can all collectively make.
2026-07-24 04:47:09
🏷️ 20260724 今日关注
RT by @aleabitoreddit: The feeling’s mutual. 🤝
2026-07-24 04:46:57
🏷️ 20260724 今日关注
From $AMD Advancing AI, channel checks: Helios networking partners told me they expect AMD to pursue CPO for future generations of Helios scale up networking. And expects other hyperscalers + industry to go down the CPO route. One AI infra executive at a company involved in a hyperscaler CPO programs said they had seen no indication of CPO scale up supply chain delays. Pushing back on recent 3rd party delay reports. This was informal commentary, not official AMD or partner guidance.
2026-07-24 04:04:40
🏷️ 20260724 今日关注
RT @AMD: The feelings mutual. 🤝
2026-07-24 04:04:26
🏷️ 20260724 今日关注
RT by @aleabitoreddit: The feelings mutual. 🤝
2026-07-24 03:48:45
🏷️ 20260724 今日关注
$AMD reached out directly to hand me some special swag! Apparently they only made 30 of these bandanas? I love AMD and Lisa Su now.
2026-07-24 00:49:57
🏷️ 20260724 今日关注
I have this feeling that Lisa from $AMD likes AI. It’s cool getting to meet some of you at the event!
2026-07-23 12:49:37
🏷️ 20260723 今日关注
$INTC and $AMD to sign CPU LTAs with Chinese customers for AI DCs (Reuters). - Prices of some CPU products have risen more than 40% in China since the start of the year from sources. - Month-on-month increases topping 10% for some products CPUs were already a bottleneck, following CPU ratios due to AI inference... But the broader trend of LTAs seems to be appearing from: - Memory, with $MU, Samsung, $SNDK, and SK Hynix signing DRAM/NAND LTAs. - Photonics, with $LITE, $COHR signing EML LTAs. And recent Trendforce reports that $AMD and hyperscalers are now pursuing CW LTAs. And I'm sure there's many more from MLCCs to all the way to substrates. +1 for the bottleneck investors... hard to be a "bubble that pops" if you have take or pay demand spanning multiple years.
2026-07-23 12:35:37
🏷️ 20260723 今日关注
Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.
2026-07-23 05:02:27
🏷️ 20260723 今日关注
2026-07-23 04:45:31
🏷️ 20260723 今日关注
2026-07-23 04:27:50
🏷️ 20260723 今日关注
2026-07-22 23:10:40
🏷️ 20260722 今日关注
$AMD to invest $5B in Anthropic. Anthropic in turn will sign a 2 GW deal to buy AMD’s latest chips, worth tens of billions of dollars. Looks like they’re copying the $NVDA playbook with Anthropic last year.
2026-07-22 15:38:22
🏷️ 20260722 今日关注
2026-07-22 05:02:48
🏷️ 20260722 今日关注
2026-07-22 01:41:05
🏷️ 20260722 今日关注
2026-07-21 17:14:20
🏷️ 20260721 今日关注
It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500. If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition. As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains. Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations. So if you're turning in: - CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink. - AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser. Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here: "We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine" We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.
2026-07-21 16:13:03
🏷️ 20260721 今日关注
Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?
2026-07-21 05:38:14
🏷️ 20260721 今日关注
If you’re curious why $NBIS is up after hours. $NVDA disclosed it owns 9.3% beneficial ownership of Nebius via SEC filings. Not exactly too new since it dates back to Nvidia’s existing share position of 1.19M shares + $2B prefunded warrant of ~21M shares. But great for sentiment having Nvidia be a large shareholder of the Neocloud leader.
2026-07-21 03:36:23
🏷️ 20260721 今日关注
TBH, casually posting novel information discovery to X is how research should be done. Apparently this was #16 on the Smale's list of Mathematical Problems for the Next Century? Kinda shows that the value generated from AI does not scale linearly with token costs... After seeing this, bears are still probably going to say: "B-but where's the profit coming from after AI usage?" AI + capex is likely going to keep going brrr.
2026-07-21 01:18:38
🏷️ 20260721 今日关注
$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.
2026-07-20 14:22:41
🏷️ 20260720 今日关注
Some updates on bottleneck timelines: - ABF substrates: 1 year / eg. Ajinomoto (2802) for ABF film, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, etc make the substrates - HDI Boards: Over 6 months / Victory Giant (300476), Zhen Ding (4958), Unimicron, Compeq (2313), Meiko (6787) - Multilayer boards: ~6 months / Victory Giant, WUS (002463), $TTMI, Gold Circuit Electronics (2368), - CCL: Over 6 months (severe shortages of materials) / Elite Material (2383), Shengyi (600183), TUC (6274), ITEQ (6213), Nan Ya Plastics (1303), Resonac (4004) Mitsui Kinzoku (5706) / HVLP copper foil. Nittobo / glass fiber/cloth - MLCCs, chip resistors, tantalum capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors: 15-20 weeks to 1 year+ MLCC: Murata (6981), Samsung Electro-Mechanics, TDK (6762), Taiyo Yuden (6976), Yageo (2327), Walsin (2492) Chip Resistors: Yageo, Walsin, KOA (6999), Rohm (6963) and $VSH Tantalum capacitors: Kyocera/AVX, Yageo/KEMET, $VSH again Aluminum electrolytic capacitors: Nippon Chemi-Con (6997) Nichicon (6996) | Timelines sourced from Digitimes, did the honors of adding in related companies. But it's slightly more nuanced since MLCCs and others mix. in commodity types vs. AI DCs. Regardless, just some helpful mapping.
2026-07-20 02:46:43
🏷️ 20260720 今日关注
There’s nothing quite like the scent of more AI capex on a Sunday. Probably some ways to go if leading frontier models are out of capacity from too much demand.
2026-07-18 12:39:54
🏷️ 20260718 今日关注
For anyone watching the 25%+ premium in $SKHY versus SK Hynix's Korean shares: The ADRs and local shares become convertible on July 29. Should open the door for arbitrage and likely compress the ADR premium. Maybe lifting Korean shares or pressuring US shares. 2.5% currently is the US ADR stock, so an additional 22.5% can be converted.
2026-07-18 09:00:56
🏷️ 20260718 今日关注
Thanks! I’ve always shared personal research and core thoughts for free. Not trying to sell anything or tell others what to do. And above all, just being transparent about my own returns (win or loss) Maybe this information democratization upsets some business models… When others try and pitch their $40 TA subscriptions that are always right and predicted the semis crash. But if they really believed it, they would have made 5000%+ buying puts and wouldn’t need to market a paywall. Yes, if I’m on 1.4x leverage, and if a portfolio concentrated in memory/photonics underlying crashes -35% on avg… you get a 49% drawdown. I’m just sharing what happens. But I expect AI names to recover since I see demand from compute to energy to memory to networking to be structural.
2026-07-18 08:03:02
🏷️ 20260718 今日关注
The nice thing about X is seeing cultural differences: I get a bunch of sidelined European accounts up 2% YTD off bank saving interest. Coming out of hibernation, and saying all along that investing in $AAOI for photonics or Samsung for memory is considered gambling. And celebrating when everything AI from $MRVL to $NBIS to $INTC finally had a crash after a few hundred percent rally. Think it’s mainly a lack of understanding of technological shifts mixed with capital preservation culture vs. growth.
2026-07-18 05:19:06
🏷️ 20260718 今日关注
Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.
2026-07-18 01:51:55
🏷️ 20260718 今日关注
$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT
2026-07-18 00:54:04
🏷️ 20260718 今日关注
Wow, apparently there’s claims ~3.4% of the adult population in Korea faces liquidation risk? “As of July 13, over 1.2 million leveraged retail traders' accounts hit margin call lines, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts force-liquidated by brokers.” (There were other sources claiming this data came from Goldman Sachs desks rather than SK financial supervisory service data) Regardless, just evidence recent crash was accelerated by liquidation cascades/deleveraging rather than fundamentals:
2026-07-18 00:11:12
🏷️ 20260718 今日关注
Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.
2026-07-17 22:52:40
🏷️ 20260717 今日关注
Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.
2026-07-17 11:16:07
🏷️ 20260717 今日关注
Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.
2026-07-16 23:57:05
🏷️ 20260716 今日关注
My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE. A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0.
2026-07-16 22:54:42
🏷️ 20260716 今日关注
Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.
2026-07-16 21:54:10
🏷️ 20260716 今日关注
Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.
2026-07-16 21:06:22
🏷️ 20260716 今日关注
I hope there's someone at X can fix this subscription bug. Many people are reporting that subscriptions don't renew anymore.
2026-07-16 00:56:28
🏷️ 20260716 今日关注
Anthropic to IPO as early as October per Bloomberg. This is following their $65B financing at a $965 billion valuation last May. Hmm, would you all invest in Anthropic at a $1T+ valuation?
2026-07-15 23:53:21
🏷️ 20260715 今日关注
$AAPL looks to acquire AI chip companies for running AI (Source: The Information) Right now, $MSFT, $META, Amazon, Google are carrying AI capex spend. But what if Apple joined the others after M&A? A possible scenario is that they revise capex largely upward for their own AI buildout. Since they probably witnessed Google cutting off Meta from compute constraints... or what happens when you partner with OpenAI for LLMs. Then learned how important it is to have your own infrastructure. This scenario would be quite bullish thematically from optical networking to foundries and something markets would not expect? We'll see what happens.
2026-07-15 22:54:52
🏷️ 20260715 今日关注
$NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang in Tokyo today said: "The reports are not true. Vera Rubin is already in production. Giant amounts of production incoming" As a flat denial to the accusation that their AI servers would be delayed. Jensen appears to be using the Umbrella term for Rubin Ultra/Kyber, then pointed to current gen ramp. Regardless, lot of damage has been done already to Nvidia supply chains stock prices, after the multiple delay reports. Even if Nvidia refuted them by clarifying Kyber change was an architecture optimization, not impacting timelines. It's a very dangerous and growing trend for folks to post overreaching broader claims from technical nuances to grow viewcount... Especially if they get Jensen has to respond. In the end, I'm trusting $NVDA on timelines since they probably have the greatest visibility into their own supply chain.
2026-07-15 11:08:23
🏷️ 20260715 今日关注
Well, looks like SLC NAND is forcasted to rise up 120-170% for H2 2026 per Trendforce. There's $MU (21%), Kioxia (20%) as largest share, but clearer beneficiaries appears to be: 1. Winbond (2344): ~15% of the SLC NAND market 2. Macronix (2337): ~11% market share 3. SkyHigh Memory via Puya Semi: ~14% market share Given Micron at $1T and others are a bit large relative to SLC NAND TAM. (source: Q1 2026 Winbond presentation/Trendforce).
2026-07-15 09:48:14
🏷️ 20260715 今日关注
$AEHR back up +36.4% today off earnings! 2027 guide: $130-$150m (160-200% growth) from 2026 revenue. Sees opportunity to guide higher (assumes no memory revenue or little to none from newly benchmarked AI customer). Q4 bookings: $60.7M, effective backlog is $100.6M. - Lead AI processor wafer-level burn-in customer is significantly ramping their products. - Engaged with additional AI processor customers who are evaluating wafer-level burn-in. - Benchmark customer, which was a “major supplier of AI accelerators, CPUs and network processors” “exceeded their expectations. From management: The potential revenue opportunity from one of these devices is "significant to Aehr". So another benchmark win for potential HVM in the future. - Wafer level burn-in benchmark with a "global leader in NAND flash completed". Now evaluating a development agreement for HBM/NAND Seems like $SNDK since there was HBF related discussions from last quarter I think. - "Our package level burn-in business for AI processors also gained momentum over the year … from our lead hyperscale customer for Sonoma systems" - Silicon photonics customer already ramping, newer networking customers has forecast additional systems Basically the amount of global semi companies that map to $AEHR is pretty ridiculous across silicon photonics, memory, AI processors, and others. I don’t quite think that $130-$150m guidance is representative of actualized revenue for 2027 if these hyperscalers/semi companies convert to HVM. Typically with these types of qualification into HVM players, markets don’t really judge it by current quarter, but what’s to come. And it looks very positive so far in terms of reactions... $116 -> $60 -> $94 all in the span of a month is pretty insane volatility tho, so good to know what you're holding.
2026-07-14 22:57:21
🏷️ 20260714 今日关注
$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029. Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier. Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today. Also... counterparty to get this done kinda reminds me of OpenAI, where they might not have the funds to actually execute on these LTAs yet compared to $META or $MSFT. But generally positive long term developments, customer diversification was one of the core strengths of Nebius.
2026-07-14 22:35:50
🏷️ 20260714 今日关注
Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI. Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities. Targeting $1.2B net profit, and $3.6B revenue in 2028 (with a ~$28B MC, that's ~23.3 2028 forward p/e). AAOI announced the commencement of its buildout, roughly 400,000 square feet of manufacturing to make 800g/1.6T production go brrr. The overall expansion is also supported by the local city government in Texas. (they also $20.85M worth of subsidies from the State earlier). This one isn't exactly as materially new as Tower, since AAOI originally announced these plans before. Just commencement of it. Regardless, glad to see both of these companies in their Anime training arc phase as they power up.
2026-07-14 09:51:24
🏷️ 20260714 今日关注
So Jensen himself went out to do damage control with $NVDA delays reports apparently: 1. Jensen Huang said no delays: - 800V and rack-to-rack optical interconnects is progressing fully in line with the original plan with no material delay. - Debunked the rumor that the next-generation flagship, Rubin Ultra, would be delayed until 2028 and said it would be on track to ship next year - Rack system optimizations, like replacing Kyber with a new design are architectural optimizations, not impacting delivery timelines. 2. On ASIC competition: no loss of market share. - Talked about how a leading frontier lab that previously relied heavily on internal ASICs has shifted nearly 50% of its compute load to Nvidia 3. On over-reliance on hyperscalers. - AI frontier labs currently contributing to ~20% of demand. - Traditional cloud providers, Nvidia provides Vera CPUs and high-speed networking - Sovereign AI
2026-07-14 07:17:46
🏷️ 20260714 今日关注
TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways: 1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations" Prob most important takeaway as a whole was 800G demand revision (also longer tail demand). Which is a bullish read through on US transceiver makers like $AAOI, $COHR, $LITE. Lot of new customers like neoclouds, AI model companies, contributing to overall demand rather than just hyperscalers, diversification always a bonus. 2. Innolight said the shortage covers the module supply chain broadly including: - Optical chips. - Electrical chips. - PCBs. - Other module materials From last ER, I think they singled out EMLs and CW optical chips as the most constrained. So Innolight's bottleneck list mention broadened since then. They expect some of the component availability to improve gradually from the second half of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Think a lot of this is already known from earlier though. But just some confirmation + easing timelines (EML is extremely bottlenecked, same with CW, this is probably talking about other components). 3. Innolight said module-production equipment is not the constraint. Equipment lead times remain relatively short. So this isn't really a bottleneck compared to others. 4. The overall proportion of silicon photonics continues to trend upward. Last year it was mainly 800G. This year, some 800G customers are further increasing their silicon-photonics proportion. 1.6T also added some new customers Positive for SiPH penetration eg. $SIVE / $JBL, since this shifts away from EML toward CW. Basically: main surprising takeaway is just 800g demand go brrr. Apart from that just reaffirming bottlenecks/timelines/market speculation.
2026-07-14 03:20:46
🏷️ 20260714 今日关注
Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include: - $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply - Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms - Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics, - $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics foundry capacity I’ve covered all of these before, like Tower Semi. But I’m especially happy that Morgan Stanley validated my research that $SIVE is one of the critical global players in CPO. A small $1.5B laser company next to your two leading $60B+ companies… If you also synthesize Rosenblatt Securities recent note that China laser suppliers were quite far from having CPO lasers. This kinda magnifies importance of the three Western leaders of that laser chokepoint.
2026-07-13 08:45:13
🏷️ 20260713 今日关注
Just a semi recap TLDR: - $GLW glass bridge per Morgan Stanley has potential, but hard to displace FAU (like FOCI) in short term - $SPCX Starlink Gen 3 is scaling to 100,000 units (10x prev gen) creating possible capacity constraints for suppliers of switches to CCL. - PCB supply shortages are projected to persist until 2028, and component shortages/price hikes are already forcing ODMs like Inventec to issue conservative H2 shipment - DeepSeek and Zhipu are developing custom ASICs to bypass $NVDA (kinda expected by now). - Anthropic has achieved a $30B ARR and is projected to hit >$1B in Q3 profit. Turns out these frontier labs are more profitable than people think. - US admin pressured $AAPL to source from $INTC, in exchange for tariff exception. Kinda pressuring alignment away from TSM. - $TSM plans a 30x expansion of its Photonic Integrated Circuit (PIC) capacity by 2028, growing from 500 to 25,000 wafers per month - Hanmi Semiconductor is entering the CoWoS packaging equipment market - $NVDA and NTT hosting a conference July 24th to discuss CPO strategies. - 5x general NAND flash price hike this year, market size $489B by next year triggered by RAG/inference. Samsung and SK Hynix make emergency fab investments, NAND equipment suppliers go brrrr. - Gas turbine bottleneck, 40% supply gap accompanied by staggering 5-year delivery cycles (mega-fabs need them for mass production). - AI probe card assembly has hit a severe bottleneck apparently. Which is attempted to by solved with things like Innovation Service's machines. - Nanya, 79.5% gross margins reported, memory go brr. 4x capex for capacity/advanced packaging. - CXMT's STAR Market IPO on July 16, so should bring a lot of attention to memory players in that supply chain. - KYEC $1.4B investment into US for $TSM Arizona output test facilities. Lot of these players like $AMKR and others should go brr in 2028. - $INTC CEO warned last month that helium could hinder the manufacturing costs and delivery times of AI chips - 3D NAND word lines are shifting from Tungsten to Molybdenum starting at the 375-layer node - SambaNova secured JPM for AI inference and raised $1B at an $11B valuation. - HBM prices projections to double in 2027 as $NVDA Rubin platform drives demand. - $MU provides $500 million in funding to support GlobalWafers' US manufacturing capacity - $META 'Iris' will enter mass production in September via $AVGO and TSMC and Meta aims to double computing power to 14GW by 2027. - Largan Precision has secured its first CPO FAU order, mass production slated for middle of next year (kinda indication around Foci and others). - Samsung and SK Hynix have delayed the implementation of hybrid bonding packaging technology for HBM4 apparently - Memory costs (DRAM/NAND) have reached 60% of the BOM for sub-$400 smartphones, causing a severe volume contraction. - SK Hynix successfully rasied $26.5 billion through a Nasdaq ADR - $TSLA issued procurement guidelines requiring suppliers to reach weekly production of 1,000 units by September and double to 2,000-2,500 by year end for its 3rd gen Optimus robot. Apparently Alliance Technology and A-Link may be in this supply chain harmonic reducers and vision lenses? Kinda go through all this stuff every day, but don't wanna be a news reporter so just consolidated stuff I found interesting.
2026-07-13 02:27:32
🏷️ 20260713 今日关注
Looks like the Strait of Hormuz is open for the 50th time this year per Trump. I’m getting tired looking at macro.
2026-07-12 19:25:10
🏷️ 20260712 今日关注
Apparently there’s a new popular trend to bearpost trillion dollar companies. Like $NVDA or $TSM. By finding isolating technical details, then blowing it out of proportions by claiming their whole program is delayed. -> if the company doesn’t respond, stock prices/sentiment are damaged. -> if the company issues a response, they can’t go into detail since supply chains are confidential… but people still doubt them -> Poster gain more impressions, then does it again with more views the next time. Don’t quite think this is very healthy, with more folks copying that playbook. Especially around incentive structures.
2026-07-12 18:12:33
🏷️ 20260712 今日关注
So there's a IBK Research report on Boston Dynamics value chains from last month. Just a summary: IBK maps these companies to Atlas as suppliers: - Hwashin (010690) / body, arms, legs - LG Energy (373220) / battery - Hyundai Autoever (307950) / integration - Hyundai Mobis (012330) / actuators As for humanoid volume ramps: They're modeling for, 11.29K in 2028, 20k 2029, 30k in 2030... 40k in 2031, and 50k in 2032. Not quite sure why IBK and other institutions are a fan of linearly modeling S-curve volume ramps... Like adding +10K per year, don't quite think it's volume ramp is going to work like that... if I had to guess it would look more like: - 15-20k 2028 - 40k-70k 2029 - 90k-140k for 2030 Since Boston Dynamics is projecting 30k capacity by 2028 (I'm sure they'd aim to get more online by 2029-2030), as China collectively is already doing 100k EOY in 2026. In terms of competitive landscape they name: - $TSLA, Figure, Apptronik, $CCXI (Agility), as US players. Then Boston Dynamics (Korea parent owned now) - Unitree, Fourier, AGibot, UBtech, $XPEV as the Chinese leaders. - Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft, Oversonic, as the EU leaders. They also did quite a lot of valuation modeling around Hyundai Mobis/Hyundai Autoever/Glovis. Regarding the BD economic ownership from 27.9% from Hyundai Motor, 11.3% from Mobis, and 11.3% from Glovis. So at least institution are valuing humanoid segments inside companies lot more now. Then from report assumptions: - 31 actuators per Atlas - $1K per actuator in 2028 - $134K Atlas ASP, Which implies actuator cost of final selling price is roughly 23–28%. Probably the more interesting statement was IBK stated that actuator capacity is biggest signal for volume ramp. eg. every 310,000 units of actuator capacity supports 10,000 more robots. So tracking actuator outputs, yields, ASP is a cleaner read on 2028-2030 ramp. I didn't have much personal takeaways, but hopefully others find it interesting, maybe around Hwashin as a core supplier or around actuator capacity as an indicator.
2026-07-12 03:47:54
🏷️ 20260712 今日关注
Apparently, Korean Beauty was where all the alpha is. APR (278470.KS) is up 529% over the past 2Y, wildly outperforming both $NVDA and $INTC. Every female I know talks about their "Medicube" stick, then buying products... where you put a whole salmon's family tree on your face for better skin. The world's female population creates a bigger structural demand than hyperscalers for memory or lasers? Should have known...
2026-07-11 18:45:46
🏷️ 20260711 今日关注
Contrarian take, but Sam Altman / OpenAI is doing something right if he's pissing off every Mag7 like $AAPL. By building their own ecosystem instead of being sucked into another. It's been awhile since $GOOGL, Apple, Microsoft, and others had some genuine disruptors.
2026-07-11 02:17:16
🏷️ 20260711 今日关注
Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU may use fewer transceivers. The number of XPUs is growing so quickly that total optical demand should still rise. On lasers architectures for CPO: VCSELs are useful as a credible bridge for NPO/short reach. Ideal architecture though for CPO is UHP CW over other lasers, and cites Broadcom for that statements. Which happens to supports my core $SIVE thesis. I feel like Rosenblatt and I share the same views on a lot of things, I like the way they roll.
2026-07-11 01:31:39
🏷️ 20260711 今日关注
Rosenblatt on recent optical sector weakness from $AAOI to $LITE: "Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for the last 1-2 months" due to CPO delay reports and China capacity scares. "We think short sellers... do not actually strongly believe in the thesis." Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August. Further, they say they plan to buy Optical stocks in 2027 for the scale up CPO opportunity. Hilarious report on laser weakness, read is very positive for $SIVEF, $COHR, and others moving forward. I've been long on CPO sector, but seems like institutions want entry points, just a bit later on.
2026-07-11 00:01:02
🏷️ 20260711 今日关注
Sk Hynix is now trading under $SKHYV! It's now up an insane 16%. I wonder how Sk Hynix over in Korea is going to react on Monday.
2026-07-10 22:38:01
🏷️ 20260710 今日关注
Why do I have this weird feeling the main reason retail is excited SK Hynix NASDAQ listing. Is because they can do degen option calls instead of individual stock purchases.
2026-07-10 20:27:45
🏷️ 20260710 今日关注
Mitsubishi Motors joins robotics race to deploy humanoid workers by 2027. Pairing with Highlanders, a Japanese robotics company. - Agility $CCXI x Foxconn, Toyota - Apptronik x $JBL, Mercedes - Highlanders x Mitsubishi - Figure × BMW - Boston Dynamics x Hyundai (subsidiaries) - Optimus x Tesla (Internal) - Rainbow Robotics x Samsung (subsidiaries) Idk if it's just me of there's a lot of patterns with humanoid companies playing buddy-buddy up with a major auto player/manufacturer. If they're not already vertically integrated by one already. Then the Chinese players like UBTech/AgiBot/Unitree don't seem to care and work with a wide variety of auto players in China. Curious how this trend plays out...
2026-07-10 19:17:10
🏷️ 20260710 今日关注
The "Mythical Golden Egg Dragon Candle" predicted the $SIVE rally today. If you look at the Golden Egg hatching indicator I drew, you can tell it predicts Sivers CEO buying on the open market a day later. Do you guys think it's time I should sell courses on TA?
2026-07-10 16:23:29
🏷️ 20260710 今日关注
Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation. After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia. Both of which caused the selloff in the first place... So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap hasn’t fundamentally changed: $LITE is still completely sold out for the next 2 years and likely into 2029. $SIVE is about to volume ramp with GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Poet, Ayar, and other hyperscaler suppliers. $TSM COUPE and their TW suppliers from Shunsin to Foci aren’t randomly disappearing into the void. $AAOI and their $471m/month h2 2027 revenue projections haven’t changed. $IQE and their epiwafer contracts with Macom and Tower Semi haven’t disappeared. $AXTI ownership of 40% of the InP substrate supply chains haven’t suddenly disappeared. As with any theme from Rocketlab + Space sector 50% drop back in 2025. Or Nebius + Neocloud 50% drop entering 2026. Or the Samsung/SK Hynix crash from Iran War LNG/Helium/Oil fears few months ago. Volatility from indiscriminate thematic selloffs isn’t typically representative of individual company fundamentals. Retail tends to build conviction over price movements and imaginary charts, then lose that when a stock drops. And institutions are probably placing limit orders to capitalize on that. Conviction shouldn’t be tied to the quote of a stock on a certain day, but long term revenue or operating income growth.
2026-07-10 03:35:56
🏷️ 20260710 今日关注
"China is shipping ~90% of the world's humanoid robots. We cannot keep taking them lightly." Elon's comment: "For now" Meanwhile, 1X today posts a video of the most advanced humanoid hand. Looks like the inflection point for American humanoid programs is here? Both technologically with players like 1X and with mass production with $TSLA? I'm am personally long on Agility through $CCXI targeting commercialization with Amazon and others. But I'm proud to see American robotics as a whole go brrrr.
2026-07-10 02:44:07
🏷️ 20260710 今日关注
Three new $SIVE insider purchases today. Most notably: $SIVEF CEO Vikram bought 1,000,000 SEK worth of shares on the open market today. This is following the massive drop on Sivers stock following 2 misleading CPO delay reports, Meta Compute headlines, and another insider sale report from another photonics director. Typically, insider sells for any number of reasons. But having the CEO buy on the open-market is the clearest signal in management confidence. Following $GFS, $JBL, and other laser supplier partnerships, and his goal of NASDAQ listing in the near term. Feels like the CEO sees a clear potential for Sivers to become the next photonics giant (myself included).
2026-07-09 20:46:14
🏷️ 20260709 今日关注
Nothing like an internal $META memo getting published. Showing AI ramping as usual: - LTAs signed with Samsung and $SNDK for memory - LTAs signed with Sumitomo Electric for fiber optics - Expected to deploy 7GW compute infra this year, and doubling in 2027. - as much as $145B capex spend this year “It plans to launch a chip about every six months through 2027”
2026-07-09 06:08:52
🏷️ 20260709 今日关注
Wow, looks like Elon + xAI at $SPCX managed to build an Anthropic Opus-level LLM with Grok 4.5. That’s much more cost efficient as well… Kinda emulating what Chinese vendors have been doing to compete on pricing + adoption. (Which is an ideal thing given Chinese model growth among US companies recently) Never doubt Elon, maybe they might end up leapfrogging Anthropic + Mythos?
2026-07-09 05:16:03
🏷️ 20260709 今日关注
$META to build a new $10B DC in Canada to expand AI capacity. So much for the media framing of “Meta Compute”as overbuilding and cutting capex.
2026-07-09 04:18:34
🏷️ 20260709 今日关注
Let’s put it this way: Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover. And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes. I see it as long term ownership over: - the next hyperscaler with $NBIS, projecting $7-9B ARR Q4 - 40% of the InP supply chain with $AXTI - leader of the next optical shift with $SIVE with CW DFB lasers - leader of US humanoids with $CCXI inside a future trillion dollar theme And so on… At cheaper valuations. While I might do things like lowering margin or hedging with my own portfolio, I’m personally not panicking when something drops if the thesis didn’t change. NFA and obviously depends on people’s investing timeframes: Since a crash would be life changing for people that depend on investing for rent or tuition. (Which is why I personally think others should do their own DD and choose longs in line with their own risk profile) But my personal goal is maximizing exposure to the next-gen supercycles before they hit. I think institutions think the same way as well, which is why there’s a lot of induced volatility along the way to maximize their exposure. If a thesis ends up correct, the valuation should be reflected in the long run.
2026-07-08 20:49:57
🏷️ 20260708 今日关注
Blue Origin reportedly raising $10B at a $130B valuation per NYT. Seems pretty positive for $RKLB, $ASTS, and other space names in terms of relative valuation anchoring. If SpaceX and Blue Origin is able to set such high valuations.
2026-07-08 18:14:45
🏷️ 20260708 今日关注
Trump: “Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. They don't participate. They don't pay. Cut off all trade with Spain” Tbh no clue what’s going on anymore…
2026-07-08 16:42:26
🏷️ 20260708 今日关注
Trump: Memorandum of Understanding with Iran “is over” “It’s a waste of time dealing with them,” Trump said at the NATO summit. Always an exciting time with markets.
2026-07-08 03:49:55
🏷️ 20260708 今日关注
Hesai Technology, a Chinese lidar maker faces US national scrutiny over its expanded partnership with $NVDA and lidar sensors. For $OUST, $AEVA, and Western lidar bros, this is generally positive if competitors get regulated out. Since there were warnings that: Sensors could be disabled or exploited remotely, given Hesai firmware update disabled lidar units on February 29 (as evidence). By second order effect, this is also bullish for upstream laser suppliers too like $LITE and $SIVE that are used in western lidar players.
2026-07-08 02:56:07
🏷️ 20260708 今日关注
Just Bloomberg and $META doing damage control after crashing the market with Meta Compute framing: Spokesperson: "Meta is still hungry for even more computing power. It is still moving forward with plans for expensive new data centers and recently inked major computing deals with $CRVW, Google, $ORCL, and others." Just dropped that in with the Meta Muse announcement, and evenn threw in the "expensive" framing with DCs to signal capex. But little late given we're likely seeing a lot of margin liquidation cascades and heavy losses from media framing earlier.
2026-07-08 01:39:23
🏷️ 20260708 今日关注
How is the US so far behind? Xinhua: China's output of humanoids are expected to hit 100,000+ this year. Even Morgan Stanley originally projected 14,000 for 2026... Really need Elon's $TSLA, $CCXI (Agility), Apptronik, and Figure to catchup. And for more US Gov. subsidies to pour into upstream supply chains + rare earths. Cause this disparity between US vs. China mass production is getting ridiculous... But it almost feels like the start of Russia/US Space race Sputnik Moment for robotics?
2026-07-08 00:38:39
🏷️ 20260708 今日关注
This is the average visual TA bro, takes a 50% 50% coinflip: If it goes the other way, they say "ABC Pattern Invalidated", should have known... If they get the coinflip right, they promote their $40/month chart. -> People drawing swiggly lines over KOSPI mean nothing where it heads. When it's primarily Samsung/SK Hynix and forward operating income growth from DRAM/NAND. -> The swiggly drawing over $SIVE, $AEHR, and others mean nothing. When it's primarily hyperscaler suppliers, thematic premiums, and volume ramp orders determining valuations. Then if something randomly goes from $1 to $60 like $AXTI, they claim they spotted it with their "Golden Egg Dragon Candle", while ignoring anything with InP substrate and otpical demand. There's rare times like these where it's a massive sector drop all together. But now the TA bros are showing up everywhere saying here's a $40 course on how they predicted it with swiggly lines.
2026-07-07 22:03:29
🏷️ 20260707 今日关注
Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.
2026-07-07 20:13:51
🏷️ 20260707 今日关注
Raymond James initiated coverage of $SPCX with “Strong Buy”. Giving it a $800 PT, valuing SpaceX at a ~$10T valuation. No words. Jokes about “institutional” notes for retail write themselves.
2026-07-07 16:54:13
🏷️ 20260707 今日关注
Be Samsung at $1.24T: > market: we don’t think you can keep hiking memory prices > proceeds to hikes dram by 20% > releases earnings > most profitable company in the world beating $NVDA and $AAPL > operating profits growing 1803% Y/Y market: sells off Samsung -7%
2026-07-07 16:10:39
🏷️ 20260707 今日关注
One of the dumbest thematic selloffs I’ve seen to to date off: - $META compute news that’s not new - CPO delay report 1, that got refuted by $NVDA - CPO delay report 2, that got refuted by $NVDA High confidence, institutions will end up going long on the same names they’re bearposting after retail capitulates.
2026-07-07 14:32:32
🏷️ 20260707 今日关注
Trump: “You have a couple of guys who went short. Those poor ******* they’re in big trouble. They’re being wiped out. The short guys. I never liked short guys because they’re betting against the country”.
2026-07-07 05:14:10
🏷️ 20260707 今日关注
Was a sad few months for $RDDT. But glad it's finally back above $200. Reddit was doing: - $663M revenue w/ 91.5% gross margins - $204M GAAP net income - 45%+ fwd Y/Y growth after 69%+ growth. - Net profit is ~30.7% of revenue Felt very weird to see a profitable company get dragged down after earnings. But in hindsight, given the increase hyperscaler capex, the drop felt more like it's more relative opportunity cost more than fundamentals? Since a lot of inflow poured into $MU / Sk Hynix that are bottlenecked into 2029. Or with laser bottlenecks like $LITE that last into 2029 as well. Same thing happens in reverse after selloffs ig, even if fundamentals didn't change. Been seeing a lot of noise with memory optimization or Chinese players... but don't quite think you sign 16T+ LTAs if memory was getting flooded or not used anytime soon. Same with optical players... if in earnings, they state anything they make gets bought, I don't quite think a lot of the noise has material effect on their fundamentals. Regardless, nice to see some recovery with familiar faces like $HOOD, $HIMS, and $RDDT though.
2026-07-07 03:31:28
🏷️ 20260707 今日关注
It’s interesting to witness psychology around valuation anchoring + scarcity. Retail, for example, are buying Figure, last valued at ~$39B through CEFs… At $158B, since it’s private, round 4x valuations. Then Agility Robotics $CCXI, which has broader commercialization. Is at ~$4.3B pre-money and publicly available before the name change. At closer pricing that $AMZN, $NVDA, SoftBank, and Foxconn vaulted it at. Yet some end up paying 4-5x prices of already hiked private investor rounds for exposure… I’m convinced if Agility raised a very small private round at $39B as well from $2.5B (which it definitely could), to set a valuation anchor. Investors would be foaming in the mouth for a private allocation, just due to psychology rather than underlying fundamentals. We’ve also seen this anchoring with $SPCX recently at $1.75T. Peak market inefficiency? Or lack of knowledge from retail?
2026-07-07 00:34:45
🏷️ 20260707 今日关注
$NVDA refuting recent Kyber delay claims: “Our roadmap is intact”. lol, damage has already been done with stocks in many markets (esp. in Taiwan/Japan/Soutj Korea) crashing after the “report”
2026-07-06 22:48:33
🏷️ 20260706 今日关注
I’d like to give a special thank you to Bloomberg’s piece on $META compute. As well as the 2 back to back bear posts on CPO delays. But I believe thematically photonics, memory, energy, and physical AI will outperform in the long run.
2026-07-06 20:35:33
🏷️ 20260706 今日关注
Wow, $WULF signs a $19B DC lease with Anthropic today. Probably a very positive tailwind for the Neocloud/Colo sector.
2026-07-06 20:03:54
🏷️ 20260706 今日关注
Retail: buys memory, optical, upstream semi names. Media: “retail bubble drives AI meme stock bubble higher”. Institutions that do the exact same thing, with the exact same names: Media: “Institutions make record profits by betting on what goes inside AI Server Racks”.
2026-07-06 18:19:00
🏷️ 20260706 今日关注
I find it hard for any bears to defend against this humanoid bull case.
2026-07-06 17:29:29
🏷️ 20260706 今日关注
Kelper upgrades $XFAB to "Buy" citing: - Melexis demand strengthening “week-after-week, day-after-day” (their lead customer). - AI giving XFAB a structural growth leg with SiC, GaN, and photonics offsetting auto cyclicality. - Scarce Western speciality foundries like $SILEX commanding higher multiples. "X-Fab remains the cheapest specialty foundry peer on every multiple, trading at 4.8x 2027 EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 14.5x" I treat this as good signal for the core fundamentals improving like auto players. But in terms of unpriced long term growth vectors, I'm personally looking at XFAB from a different angle in terms of photonics growth with photonixfab. Given $NVDA as a potential key driver. But it's hard for traditional firms to price these types of active developments into valuation models until there's volume contracts.
2026-07-06 16:25:00
🏷️ 20260706 今日关注
I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE. In the past few months alone, we've seen: 1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production 2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers. 3. $GFS SCALE reference level laser for hyperscalers with pluggable, NPO, CPO. -> -> where $AMD and others went to GFS for CPO. 4. Ayar, which joined $NVDA NVLink for CPO -> -> which removed Lumentum/Macom from their website and likely made Sivers their primary laser supplier. -> -> AlChip likely Trainium win from Amazon price placement (Ayar's customer) -> -> GUC rack level design in with Ayar. -> -> Raised $500m for mass production by AMD, Alchip, Mediatek, and NVIDIA 5. ~ $AEVA starting HVM H2 2026. 6. $POET starting HVM H2 2026 with hyperscaler suppliers like Lumilens ("top 3 hyperscaler initial customer") 7. TFLN + $SIVE CW Lasers with Lightium 8. Likely direct relationships with $MRVL Celestial and CPO players like Lightelligence/Lightmatter. 9. Multiple new undisclosed relationships for pluggables following Jabil in their quarterly transcripts With new Trendforce reports that $AMD and other hyperscalers are trying to source LTAs for CW laser sources, serving as a direct catalyst for independent CW sources. So when hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil to O-Net are incentivized to mass produce as many as they can: That's very material for revenue for Sivers relative to current valuations, and it looks like just a waiting game. Even in the past week: - $SIVE raised an oversubscribed institutional round for volume ramp... This is very nuanced since Sivers is fab-lite so it's not going to in-house foundry capex to scale. Likely toward Win Semi and others (they mentioned other partners too), for laser scaling + foundry allocations. So this is likely signaling material for revenue ramp is coming. - Sivers also mentioned NASDAQ listing completion targeted in the next few quarters (probably H2 2026 or Q1 2027 is my est. timeframe). This would fund M&A efforts, since it's impossible with the fundraising environments in local Swedish markets. As for becoming the next $LITE: M&A makes their lasers more valuable, so downstream IP acqusition -> into contract manufacturing like $FN, and others to make the full 1.6T pluggable or optical engines. Is how they get there, since laser array ASP scaling that people are modeling off of, wouldn't command a $60B+ valuations. There's going to be a lot of bridge architectures like NPO/pluggables, etc and noise around certain architectural delays in the meantime. But markets misunderstand laser companies like $LITE, $SIVE, $AAOI and others are used across different architectures compared to if you just look at certain passive optical components. So markets see "CPO delay headlines" algos sell off laser companies that benefit from other architectures. Being included in the pluggable 1.6T ramp to CPO scale out (Which Sivers is included in), helps bridge revenue waiting gaps until scale up inflection point H2 2027. I'm personally holding long term, since I haven't seen a ~$1.4B company mapping to this many hyperscalers before. TLDR: - Waiting on volume ramps from different architectures to play out across their hyperscaler supplier mapping -> 1.6T LRO/CPO scale out late H2 2026 start into high volume ramp 2027 -> H2 2027 CPO scale up volume ramp - Waiting on NASDAQ listing likely H2 2026/Q1 2027 for M&A efforts to fully take off, unless Sivers get more creative with equity financing in the meantime.
2026-07-06 13:48:43
🏷️ 20260706 今日关注
Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players. Then regarding ASP updates: - 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76% - 3in InP substrates price hike 78% - 2in EML Epiwafer price hike 50-75% - 3in CW Epiwafer price hike ~40%+ - Prices lower domestically in China as expected. Hyperscalers bottlenecking upstream photonics confirmation validation… on all fronts from pricing, demand, to supply shortages. My personal expectation was that price hikes would keep going up like $SNDK given ramping optical demand. We’ll see if this turns out right given another 2 years of the demand curve.
2026-07-06 04:32:55
🏷️ 20260706 今日关注
Came across an interesting report from SVRC Research called "State of Robotics 2026", published in April. Which listed: 1. Figure AI 2. Agility Robotics $CCXI 3. Apptronik 4. $TSLA 5. Boston Dynamics 6. Physical Intelligence 7. 1X Technologies 8. $AMZN Robotics 9. Covariant 10. Skild AI As the National Champions of the United States robotics program. "The United States leads the world in where robotics is heading: Fundation models, OpenAI-style scaling laws applied to action, autonomous vehicles. While losing the race on where robotics is shipping today." Then it frames: 1. Rare Earths Exposure: from Neodymium for motors to samarium-cobalt for high-temp applications as a critical vulnerability. 2. Actuator dependency. Series elastic actuators, quasi-direct-drive motors, and precision reducers overwhelmingly sourced from Japan, Germany, and China As one of the main vulnerabilities alongside Manufacturing velocity/data collection cost/regulations. Then their take was: "With at least six well-funded US humanoid companies competing for a market still in early formation, we expect at least two significant consolidation events (acquisition or merger) in 2027". With Logistics / E-commerce (like $AMZN / $FDX) and Automotive from $GM to $FORD as being the immediate top use cases for deployment. I think it's just interesting to see a lot of my points I've been talking about reiterated by research firms. Regardless, I do think it's going to be a major frontier race between the US and China. Agility Robotics (which I own), Tesla, Figure, and Apptronik as leaders representing the USA. Competing against Unitree, AGIbot, Ubtech, and others in China.
2026-07-05 23:36:44
🏷️ 20260705 今日关注
Just some consolidated updates on memory: - $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized. - Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream. - MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond - UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est. - UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter. - Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations. Something to note: Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters. But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation. I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names... I'm just sitting back and watching things play out through all the "memory optimization" and "they can't keep price hiking like this!" noise.
2026-07-05 21:38:44
🏷️ 20260705 今日关注
Looks like there's a high power cylindrical cell / BBU cell shortage (aka: bottleneck): - Samsung SDI supplies the cells to Simplo, which assembles them into BBUs for $META to $AMZN. - As demand from data centers has increased, production of Samsung SDI's cylindrical cells has also risen sharply. - Industry sources said Panasonic, Samsung are experiencing supply shortages for BBU cells. So main beneficiaries imo look like: - Samsung SDI (KRX: 006400) / Panasonic Energy as cleaneset winners - Murata (6981) / this keeps showing up everywhere with MLCC and others lol - LG Energy (KRX: 373220) / incoming There's not really much direct US players? But adjacent read through like $VRT, $ETN or $BWA / $ENS. Not quite in my domain emphasis cup of tea though. I wouldn't conflate this as all shortages having a massive TAM, but there could be opportunities...
2026-07-05 17:45:22
🏷️ 20260705 今日关注
Leaked Anthropic docs show plans to secure 1.4GW capacity from Australia, amounting to ~$21.6B. Recently $IREN, $SHAZ, and other Neoclouds have been building sovereign DCs in Australia. Guess like a lot of things are stating to make more sense connection wise? (disclosure: no open positions in any of the above).
2026-07-05 05:44:39
🏷️ 20260705 今日关注
Nikkei - $JD E-Commerce Giant CEO warns "Robots Will Replace 700,000 Delivery Workers". Per FT's earlier piece last month: The 700,000 delivery personnel working for the firm will be replaced by robots, highlighting how rapid automation has become a new threat to China's already severe job market. Liu Qiangdong, revealed that the company has signed contracts with approximately 120 schools to retrain its delivery workers, enabling them to transition into new roles such as robot repair and maintenance... "Beijing has started to track AI’s hit to jobs as a national priority." This follows other corporate strategy reports like $AMZN, of avoiding 600,000 future hires with robots. But it's very interesting to see the shift in worker roles to robot support. Maybe $DASH to $UBER to $MELI, we'll all start to see this rollout following China. There's a lot of retail disbelief over humanoid/robotics commercialization. But feels like the direction industry is heading down is pretty clear.
2026-07-05 03:19:28
🏷️ 20260705 今日关注
an apple a day keeps the bottleneck away
2026-07-05 02:02:28
🏷️ 20260705 今日关注
UDN Money report "殺翻光通訊後 SemiAnalysis 惹議 業界揭其劣跡 許多公司慘遭魔手": - SemiAnalysis, released a report in June, questioning the timing of the launch of the CPO on the grounds of low yield and delay, which caused the photonics sector to collapse. - The agency then partnered with Tema to launch a photonics ETF. - The shares held in the ETF under the trading code LAZR happened to be the photonics stocks that were mentioned negatively in the report $HIMX and $LITE, which were specifically targeted negatively in their article "Powered Down, Lights Off", have been bought in Semianalysis and Tema's new ETF after the optical sector crash.
2026-07-04 18:23:27
🏷️ 20260704 今日关注
Bruh, when I first tried out ChatGPT around 2023, I thought it LLMs were garbage at coding. 3Y later, Mythos is considered a modern day “nuke” for cybersecurity. People keep saying humanoids can’t do X or Y task today like plumbing or DC wiring. No sht, but it’s about where things are heading over the few years. And it’s clear to me and VC apparently that we’ve just hit the inflection point where soon: majority of labor you think is human-only, can be replaced by robotics/humanoids. You're already seeing this too with internal strategies: Remember $AMZN leaked strat planned to avoid hiring 600,000 workers by them with robots like $CCXI? If you see past the "assistive robotics" public image framing to prevent protest, it's clear the goals is maximizing, opex efficiency. The main areas I think are safe however are regulation bound (eg. Medicine), ultra specialized labor, or require human/emotional connections. But I think you'll be blown away by the rate of change when frontier technologies become national security races between US and China... especially when China is currently in the lead.
2026-07-04 15:18:16
🏷️ 20260704 今日关注
TIL floating DC and ocean compute exists? Apparently it’s free cooling + optimal for places in tight geography… It’s going to be wild taking a cruise ship, and passing by a bunch of $NBIS or Samsung floating AI DCs one day. If this ever becomes a thing like orbital compute?
2026-07-04 08:07:23
🏷️ 20260704 今日关注
I'm bearish on humans. Hard to see people still having a job if humanoids come out at <$15K mass production. No insurance, no JP Morgan HR cannon scandals. And can do everything a person can, but better + 24/7.
2026-07-03 22:00:07
🏷️ 20260703 今日关注
Just some public market read through from Chinese private VC markets: Institutions are pouring funds into physical AI and world models. 1. Large models / LLMs: ~$23.56B 2. AI infrastructure + technical layer: ~$15.74B 3. Embodied intelligence / physical AI: ~$13.36B 4. AIGC applications: ~$8.79B 5. Autonomous driving + other Top-20 cluster: ~$3.82B, but not apples-to-apples with the above. Some notes: - "Early-stage pure foundation-model funding is basically closed". Looks like more funding is just being put into existing leaders and going into World Model companies. My guess is that we'll likely see the same in the US with Anthorpic/OpenAI consolidation. - "World models have become the biggest consensus in early-stage investment." I said months ago 4D AI/World Models would be the most interesting moving forward, and called out $AEVA as potential exposure. But there's not exactly any pure play exposure. But probably next we'll wait for the next IPOs here in this sector maybe H1 next year. - AIGC application sector is the most mature for AI technology commercialization "Artificial Intelligence Generated Content commercialization is mature but no clear winner yet". Makes sense. in the US there's stuff like Grok Imagine, Google Nano Banana, etc. no clear winner too. especially for video. _ TLDR: Continued funding into AI infrastructure/semiconductor supply chains. Huge capital rotation influx into physical AI / embodied brain / humanoids + world models from capital inflow. Consolidation around leading frontier model companies. Personally just validated what I've been focusing on with Agility Robotics and physical AI players (eg. leaderdrive, harmonic, etc) in public markets... As new potential opportunities in terms of capital rotation. But sadly no world model pure play exposure yet.
2026-07-03 18:09:16
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So positive readthrough on the upstream glass substrate supply chain: - Sumitomo Chemical and Samsung Electro-Mechanics formally establish JV in Korea within the year to handle the glass core substrate business (GlaSSEM). Main thing was timeline/funding was finalized: "full scale commercialization targeted H2 2027" for the Samsung/Dongwoo JV / KRW 482.1B planned capital. Think the "full scale commercialization" is the word to highlight, since that would imply timeline moving faster than expected than starting ramp or early production H2 2027. So... TGV/LIDE with $LPK (that I own)/E&R and Onto in terms of yields are just some examples of possible sector beneficiaries. Since companies like LPK stated in the past: “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment” and targeted "70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp". These players also typically have revenue pulled forward, since equipment orders during capex cycle hit before actual ramp. Regardless, just an update on developments.
2026-07-03 14:53:07
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Be SemiAnalysis: - Post a scathing piece on CPO delays + optical company valuations, causing a crash. Which $NVDA, analyst desks, and major optical companies refuted - Launch an institutional photonics ETF after optical names dropped 40-60%.
2026-07-03 13:58:44
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SemiAnalysis on $META “overcapacity” and market reactions with $NBIS and others: “We believe Meta’s datacenter and compute will accelerate”. “Capex in 2027 will be shockingly high”. Recent global crash, especially in the photonics sector was stupid… Off misleading narratives of Meta dropping out of AI race to sell excess compute… When in fact things are likely to accelerate from Meta catching up to GPT5.5. I’m personally expecting a sharp V recovery, especially with the names that crashed 50%+ from this narrative.
2026-07-03 13:22:33
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LeaderDrive (688017) is now at all time highs after hitting a 20% limit up today. Looks like robotics sector excitement is palpable… Largely driven by US and China’s frontier humanoid companies with $CCXI / Agility Robotics As well as Unitree (STAR listing approved today) both going public.
2026-07-03 12:54:11
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Lot of misinformation recently about $META. Recently major journals have been stating “AI AGENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST FOUR MONTHS HASN'T 'ACCELERATED IN THE WAY WE EXPECTED” To push some narrative about Meta dropping out of the race or lowered capex: As Wang clarified: Zuckerberg was talking about the industry as a whole.
2026-07-03 12:38:55
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$META: upcoming AI model “Watermelon” has caught up to OpenAI’s GPT 5.5. Wang noted it uses an "order of magnitude" more compute than its predecessor “Avocado”. Who said they were out of the AI race again?
2026-07-03 05:30:57
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$AXTI signs 3-year wafer deal with $COHR. "Coherent will make a prepayment of $22,288,500 to AXT-Tongmei in exchange for a committed supply capacity."
2026-07-03 04:37:26
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Does anyone else have this annoying seed planted in their mind too? Whenever I see $MRVL drop, I get reminded of Jensen’s comment “The next $1T company”.
2026-07-03 03:33:06
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Just this hour: BlueCrest Capital Management and its Billionaire Michael Platt crossed the threshold and disclosed a 5.6% stake in $CCXI. I knew Agility Robotics would be popular…
2026-07-03 03:12:55
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Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again… UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”. Regardless: $AEHR down -18.3% $AAOI down -17.13% $SIVEF down -15.4% $SNDK down -14.8% $TER down -13.8% $GLW down -11.4% $MRVL down -11.2% $LITE down -10.2% $NBIS down -7.8% Getting PTSD from Bloombert’s previous misleading report on AMD/Nvidia global export controls earlier this year that crashed semi stocks. FYI: Meta doesn’t randomly buy $48B+ worth of neocoud contracts if they overbuilt capacity and can cut capex… Markets are stupid sometimes.
2026-07-03 01:57:47
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Agility Robotics is literally the #1 humanoid player in the US in terms of commercialization today imo. Personal Rankings: 1. Agility Robotics via $CCXI 2. $TSLA Optimus ($1T+ company) 3. Figure at $39B from 2025, likely higher now. With Tesla likely taking the lead a year from now. So at $16, you have a ~$4B MC pre-money humanoid player. Which is already inside $AMZN and $MELI (ideal use cases to start out, before step-functioning to general-use), with $AMZN, $NVDA, Softbank, Foxconn, and others as investors. NFA, but at those valuations... there's direct exposure for the first ever humanoid player today, that's likely further ahead than Figure for commercialization. No hard feelings about Robostrategy, but it's over 4x+ NAV: Which would value Figure at $156B... While there's the #1 commercialized humanoid player with Agility at $4B today. So my personal preference is $CCXI.
2026-07-03 00:56:31
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Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA. Quantum barely has any revenue. $LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript) $COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum. Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today. So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources. Many other hyperscalers have already started LTA discussions (per Trendforce). And players like $AMD are currently talking with players such as $AAOI (Rosenblatt channel checks). Thematically, next 2 years is 9x TAM to US$154B per GS reports, especially with 16x/45x dollar content increase in scale out/scale up. Then there's the overall thematic AI drop from $META, which is widely misunderstood because people conflate what "excess capacity" means. And as UBS mentioned, Meta planning a cloud offering is NOT NEW NEWS. Bloomberg just has a tendency to publish information that causes doom drops across the semi sector like Nvidia export controls a few months back. But I'm familiar with what I'm holding so I'm confident in these numbers playing out. Especially when all the major players are sold out, the fundamentals catch up eventually.
2026-07-02 18:34:42
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I just realized Boston Dynamics CEO shared the same sentiment: “Robotics is next. America’s next 250 years will be built by robots”. However, currently China accounts for 54%+ of all global robotics deployments. - calls for Internet scaleable database of physical world (kinda got reminded of Niantic that has a huge dataset from Pokemon Go) - dedicated National robotics strategy to compete against China’s leadership in this space - ISO + regulation for robotics safety This is all high level: But my prioritize thought process is how do we support and scale a Made in USA supply chain for robotics/humanoids? I’ve been hammering home rare earths for the longest time, that the US isn’t doing enough to subsidize or scale this industry. But another thing to take note is subsidies for components, forcing $TSLA and others to use Chinese suppliers over Western ones, even if assembly is done in USA… to keep costs down. Which is why I’ve liked Agility Robotics $CCXI since they source 75% of parts from the US, despite higher BOM to start out with. Regardless it’s pretty clear this Robotics is coming and becoming a national security priority: From the days of backflipping humanoid YT videos.
2026-07-02 17:16:50
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$IREN founders award themselves $1.14B+ of stock based compensation. Vesting over 4 years timeframe. This is amid their active $6,000,000,000 ATM. I’m not going to say anything but I think it speaks for itself.
2026-07-02 14:53:53
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Wells Fargo: $META intent to sell excess compute is a positive signal around underlying demand and unit economics of AI. “Despite this shift, we don’t expect a pullback in Meta’s capex or that overall compute needs are lower” Regarding Neoclouds: WF thinks it validated the massive AI infra opportunity as well as acquisition opportunities. Despite any potential competition for Neoclouds. I’m inclined to agree with Wells Fargo here and say markets completely misunderstood Meta’s excess compute comment.
2026-07-02 14:38:51
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I feel like Trump is probably going to like this idea: OpenAI discussed giving the US gov a 5% stake in its company per FT. If this turns into an $INTC type situation, would be interesting if the US government becomes a soft backstop for their $1T+ in future capex/obligations.
2026-07-02 01:09:49
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Just dropping these 3 slides from Agility Robotics ( $CCXI ) presentations. For the US robotic program doomposters: 1. “75% of parts” - sourced from the USA 2. Just eyeballing the graph, looks like <$30k BOM mass production. People were just looking at the ~$145K cost. 3. 10,000 RoboFab capacity, and they build in Salem/Pittsburgh/Fremont (USA). So looks like majority US supply chains with targets of <$30K mass production It does help they’re backed by $AMZN / SoftBank / Foxconn / $NVDA as investors to get this done. Just personal thoughts as a shareholder in $CCXI (NFA): My personal biggest fear were US humanoid leaders like $TSLA were just building out their entire supply chains in China. So US robotics could just be export controlled/halted down the road. eg. South China Morning Post: ‘Optimus chain’: Chinese suppliers form the backbone of Tesla’s humanoid robot initiative and engaged with hundreds of Chinese component suppliers. And that Western companies are not able to lower costs to a competitive level + are forced to use Chinese components. I'm still not sure how they're going to do it but if Agility can achieve those mass production targets with that BOM cost in the USA/West. It would be a great validation for Made in America US robotics programs. IMO the top 5 US humanoid programs right now in terms of commercialization potential are: 1. Tesla Optimus 2. Figure 3. Agility Robotics 4. Boston Dynamics (yeah KR parent) 5. Apptronik Tesla is a $1T+ company. Figure is private and valued around ~$39B. Owning Boston Dynamics through Hyundai is a bit messy. And I’d prefer not to invest in adversarial programs just as a personal preference. So I’ve been personally excited for Agility to be listed as early as September.
2026-07-01 21:42:30
🏷️ 20260701 本周精选
There’s a lot of disinformation going around about $META “cutting capex” because they “overbuilt”. This is an “if” they have excess capacity. And it looks like the opposite right now: Hyperscalers like $GOOGL are so compute constrained that they had to cut allocations to Meta back in March. Since Meta was using too much for internal projects. Meta was immediately constrained so it looks like they were forced to immediately sign massive $48B+ contracts with Neoclouds like $CRWV and $NBIS. Meta is selling excess capacity if there’s any, especially since their large contracts are take or pay from the Neoclouds. If anything, I’m expecting their guided capex to go up as they build out more independent capacity.
2026-07-01 21:14:42
🏷️ 20260701 本周精选
Basically pre-market right now with the Neoclouds like $NBIS in simpler terms. Costco: sells $5 chickens. Walmart: mass buys those rotisserie chickens and sells excess as “Walmart Chickens”. Stock Market: sells off Costco.
2026-07-01 20:49:56
🏷️ 20260701 本周精选
Finally, $META to build a Cloud Business to sell excess AI compute per Bloomberg. Thought Meta should go up against GCP, Azure, and AWS eventually to increase revenue streams. Meta up 6.65% premarket.
2026-07-01 19:07:07
🏷️ 20260701 本周精选
Just a random thought, leading US humanoid players strangely me of the current LLM dynamics: Agility ( $CCXI ) kinda feels like Anthropic for robotics. With $AMZN and $NVDA heavily backing it, ingrained with $GOOGL Deepmind (like TPUs). And it starts off with enterprise commercialization. Optimus is kinda off doing its own thing like xAI. Supported by Tesla/Elon and his visionary roadmap as usual. Figure is like ChatGPT With Microsoft/OpenAI investing (kinda like Microsoft), then ended up kinda competing them by building their own VlA and setting them behind. But ends up top 2 leaders anyway. Boston Dynamics is Gemini Kinda started the entire humanoids thing like transformers with backflip videos. With R&D supported by $GOOGL but somehow let everyone else leapfrog them in commercialization. And then there’s $NVDA just chilling, silently powering the entire humanoids ecosystem.
2026-07-01 16:54:04
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This market feels like an ADHD goldfish with a 5 second attention span, trading popular themes. It's like markets only care about physical AI and energy right now? And sold off memory and photonics that are bottlenecked past 2028?
2026-07-01 15:22:39
🏷️ 20260701 本周精选
$SIVE: "Intent to complete the [NASDAQ] listing process over the next few quarters" This statement was largely missed by many screeners. Very material improvement from evaluation, to formal confirmation of timelines.
2026-07-01 12:40:02
🏷️ 20260701 本周精选
Just some of the more interesting news I came across recently: 1. MS: Revised China humanoid shipments to reach 50,000 in 2026 from 14,000u and 28,000u earlier this year. 2. MS: Probe cards and test sockets likely to be priced hike (precious metal hikes + severe shortage of test pin capacity) 3. Capacitor price hikes: MLCC, aluminum electrolytic, tantalum, polymer aluminum, film, and super capacitors from Yageo. 4. $META Vistara architecture: Older DDR4 Memory with CXL as memory expansion 5. OpenAI achieved inference optimization breakthrough that halves costs and reduces GPU requirements. 6. LTAs are being signed with MLCC after Samsung signed LTA with US big tech customer 7. Grid power bottlenecks triggered 5x increase ($25B) in Brookfield's financing for $BE fuel cells. 8. Taiwan's chip packaging and testing supply chain includes major OSAT providers such as $ASX, Powertech, Winstek Semiconductor, Chipbond, ChipMOS, and ShunSin. Dedicated testing companies include KYEC, Ardentec, and Sigurd Microelectronics, while testing interface suppliers include WinWay, MPI, Keystone Microtech, Chunghwa Precision, and Hermes Testing Solutions. Leadframe makers include Jih Lin Tech, SDI, and CWTC, while major IC substrate suppliers include Unimicron, Kinsus, Nan Ya PCB, and Zhen Ding Tech. (Digitimes) - Taiwan-based OSAT providers are raising prices - Memory and IC packaging and testing capacity have both become bottlenecks in the semiconductor supply chain
2026-07-01 00:34:58
🏷️ 20260701 本周精选
Yep! Agility Robotics is currently my favorite humanoid/robotics position. They're set to be listed on NASDAQ via $CCXI as early as September (per Digitimes). Just for informational purposes: Their V4 humanoid robot is already operating in sites like Amazon. And have V5 slated for mass production next year (they have a 10,000+ /year capacity). Investors include Foxconn, $NVDA, $AMZN, Softbank, and now Serenity. I've been personally waiting for humanoid exposure for awhile (Agility is set to be the first US pure-play listed one) to the point I was actually planning on investing in Unitree's IPO. But I'm glad now I personally have a compelling alternative now since I prefer to invest capital to build up Made in America supply chains (75% of their components are US-sourced from investor desks). There are risks assigned to SPACs such as listing delays, or cancellation. But excited to see what happens next with developments. I do hope this encourages other frontier companies to go public early on.
2026-06-30 23:20:39
🏷️ 20260630 今日关注
I wonder if humanoids is going to spark a new bottleneck/industry for robot cosmetics. Like a skin bottleneck. Or Aespa KPOP robot makeover as a service. So if $TSLA Optimus makes tens of millions of humanoids: Who’s going to make them all look hot?
2026-06-30 22:17:18
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There was a pretty funny anecdotal complaint from the Machine Learning $RDDT subreddit. On $CBRS + OpenAI: - Needs 1-2K tokens/sec so tries to use Cerebras. - Claims OpenAI reserved all capacity, making waitlist infinite for everyone else not a hyperscaler. - Stated alternatives with Groq’s API not accessible to them Feels bad. But it does show how few players / limited capacity there is for fast inference.
2026-06-30 18:27:55
🏷️ 20260630 今日关注
Hard to see a world where US AI hyperscaler capex drops dramatically from $GOOGL to $META. When China entities like 360 go and claim: They now have a "AI cyber nuclear weapon" that can hack Western companies and governments. (Zhou claimed Mythos was like an AI era cyber nuclear weapon, then claimed they built a Chinese equivalent). We're probably witnessing the modern cold war. But instead of nuclear stockpiles, it's racing to build superintelligence both offensively and defensively. With many different "battles" happening concurrently like supply chain export controls between China -> Japan -> US hyperscalers. The funny thing is that everyone still depends on one another: - US with things like rare earths and feedstock from China. - China with EUV to EDA and engineered substrates. So there's still give or takes trades to build up capabilities like Nvidia/AMD AI chips access for rare-earth/magnets access. Which is exactly why it's important for the US to build up rare earths supply chains ASAP. And not piss off allied supply chain chokepoints like European EUV partners with $ASML to Japanese vacuum/furnace makers like Ulvac with things like tariffs, if the US wants to use it as leverage for negotiations. But we're getting dangerously closer to a point where supply chain interdependence is not a deterrent against escalation. Especially as China grows closer to becoming self-reliant. And that might be the tipping point.
2026-06-30 09:10:57
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I've reached 900k followers, thank you everyone! Just some reflection, it's actually a nightmare at higher counts... Which is new to me, since I started at almost nothing earlier this year. 1. Threats of safety, which I don't enjoy. - Random new accounts sending personal threats - Mysterious foreign accounts, sending coercive messages the moment I mention a foreign ticker If I hold an opinion about a stock, I'd prefer not to have anyone show up on the street with a knife at night since it's safety risk at this point... Never felt like I'd have to take that into consideration for holding an opinion. 2. Egregious media narratives - Lot of outlets try to dismiss my ideas like $RPI or $SIVE as "meme stocks" or me as "meme trader" when I talk about supply chain chokepoints or fundamental catalysts to revenue due to AI. Without ever covering the core ideas or hyperscaler mapping I've done. I let success validate my ideas, but it's annoying when they can just pretend their claims like "___ will imminently crash as a fact" which ends up not happening. Or that "___" is just a retail meme stock without mentioning $JBL, Ayar, $GFS or others for CPO scale up or pluggables. I'm grateful to some outlets, like in Belgium for $XFAB coverage, but many others try and paint their own narrative rather than covering a very nuanced thesis objectively. - When I mention a ticker in a foreign market, some try to frame me as some "adversarial account"! I'm just sharing ideas, and I'll always disclose positions/financial interest if I have them. If I say I have none, they just make up some narrative that I'm some foreign institution or random group inside their country that does. Some have even tried hilariously forging screenshots of me to harm my reputation, which was annoying to deal with. Since it's easier to textedit a photo and spread it around than it is to dispel disinformation. Lot of institutions know me personally by now. I just don't go broadcasting my identity to random people in the media/public, since personal security gets expensive and I just want to live about my day. 3. Endless X bot spam - I have endless hundreds of comments a day trying to link external communities pretending they're me. I manually delete, and block thousands of these accounts, sometimes hit regular people by accident. And it's extremely exhausting to the point my fingers cramp certain days. Even if I give the most blatant warnings in bio, people still get scammed and think it's me. Then I get blamed for it too. I actually had a conversation where someone asked if a scammer was me. I said no verbatim, then they double checked like 2-3 more times because they didn't believe I said no because someone had the same username on another scam platform. In another world, maybe we'll get automod type tools. But until then, it's mentally exhausting dealing with all of this. But I do so anyways since I don't want my followers to get scammed. 4. Endless engagement baiting - I have tons of people making up fake stuff about me, tagging me in posts, randomly bashing my ideas while missing any technical nuance in order to get me to comment or farm views. It's a catch 22 since the moment I reply, they get a lot of views, which was their goal. And if I don't reply it just looks like I'm avoiding something (which is not true). I'm very transparent, I always try and entertain people who disagree first. But when it gets into personal attacks or leading questions/disinformation rather than substance then I don't engage. It's a little sad though when people I've interacted with end up caring more about engagement over relationships down the road. 5. People missing the nuance - I share ideas pretty often and I always maintain I don't want people to copytrade or blindly follow, which is why I haven't set up any copytrading apps. Before it was just posting with a few $RDDT friends on ideas like $AXTI, $NBIS, or $ALAB, and people were more knowledgeable traders. Then seeing if markets validate my guesses like with InP substrate bottlenecks. But because many turned out directionally right, to the point it became a central talking point between China/US trade relations, lot of random folks started to follow my account last few months. But many of them miss nuances with float dilution, or material updates along the way such as rate hikes, and I get blamed if a thesis changes. Now since there's so many random people, even if I share an idea about $CBRS last Friday. At market open I had people panicking over a 2% drop, asking me if I did something to a $44B+ company, even if it went up 20%+ today. Now I have compliance review for posts, which delays things a lot but makes sure people don't get the wrong idea. And I have to be careful about my timing, so I post new ideas when markets close. Before, it was just sharing ideas the moment I had them during lunch or in the shower, so this is becoming a headache. 6. I post my core ideas for free. And I've always said this from the start. I actually made my subscribers chat literally by accident, and set the bare minimum amount on purpose since I didn't want to take people's money. But kept it so I could avoid the bots and not spam the main timeline with random thoughts/scrapped research. I think me becoming the #1 most subscribed to person on X was literally by accident. But lot of weird narratives out there when media or others don't believe that I just genuinely want to share my ideas for free. And that people shouldn't need to pay $300 in a paywalled community to see them. _ Not sure if people want to read it all, but just some things I've gone through. It's not as much fun at higher numbers and it would be nice to go back to when I was smaller. Regardless, I'd rather not turn this into a job, or make it feel like one. Will probably take a break when I hit 1M as a milestone and do something else that will help out the community like sharing my research pipelines and such. Think a lot of my friends at 10-50K follower counts, seem to experience some of these issues too. But problems get magnified a lot at this level. I never needed the X creator fees or anything, just wanted to share ideas for fun if people wanted to listen. And didn't expect any popularity, but it's nice to see that people find my ideas compelling.
2026-06-30 07:01:04
🏷️ 20260630 今日关注
For robotics companies, I have a favorable view on Unitree and Agility Robotics, two humanoid players. And I have largest concentration in Agility Robotics, since I personally prefer US humanoid players. For upstream component exposure, I currently own: - Harmonic Drive (6324) given high content BOM on things like harmonic reduction gear. - Vishay Precision for sensors and a possible candidate for Telsa Optimus. LeaderDrive (688017) and Schaeffler I have favorable views on but don't own personally. Many of the other AI DC players, I have indirect exposure to robotics like memory. Don't recommend anyone to copy, just sharing personal positions/thoughts. Humanoid sector is large, and as seen with Goldman Sachs report that "Korean companies will command a 30% direct and indirect share of global humanoid robot production". Lot of players out there globally. This was an older report but just linking it again since you see all of them pop up in GS institutional reports + what they cover. Agility Robotics is my personal favorite as of now.
2026-06-29 18:43:13
🏷️ 20260629 今日关注
Japan's Rakuten to establish joint venture with $ASTS to build out LEO satellite networks for Japan per Digitimes/Nikkei. "The move is widely viewed as a strategic response to the growing influence of $SPCX Starlink in Japan"
2026-06-29 17:54:58
🏷️ 20260629 今日关注
$GM cuts 1,000 workers and replaces them with 50 robots (Jun 22nd report) Reports also show GM is working on a deal with $NVDA on factory robotics. This is industry validation for robotics, since it likely demonstrates increased opex margins + efficiency from employee automation. Especially from companies like $AMZN to General Motors with assembly/warehouse lines that have high headcount. I think the technology is already here and use cases are already proven. Robotics/Humanoids are just pre-scale right now. The wording from large companies is “assistive robotics”… But in all honesty, it’s here to automate away the human workforce and increase profitability. I don’t think companies want to be paying insurance, salaries, etc. when robots can do a better job, and 24/7, so very sad to see potential job losses in the future from robotics automation. Whether people like it or not; seems like the inflection point for robotics is here.
2026-06-29 14:57:45
🏷️ 20260629 今日关注
Just some notes on $POET AGM and read through on optical markets: - "The top three laser suppliers control 68% of the market, and they’re completely sold out for the next two years" $LITE CEO said into 2028, so POET implicitly confirms laser shortage is going into 2029 now. - NRE with a new customer, building on POET’s interposer for high-power external light source. This is high confidence $SIVE as laser supplier given the Sept 29, 2025 PR on ELS, and new customer qualification would be material for revenue if it goes into volume ramp. - Poet expects Lumilens commercial agreement to scale to over $500 million over the next 5 years. Lumilens claimed a top-3 hyperscaler was their initial customer (Linkedin OSINT) - $830M cash on hand on balance sheet (this is more for Poet fundamentals). - "The entire optical components industry today is facing a severe shortage of critical components." Reaffirming what we know already regarding optical bottlenecks. - "Production ramp in the second half of 2026 this year." Just production timelines H2. In terms of $POET volumes: - existing capacity around 1 million optical engines per year - projected demand exiting 2027 around 1 million optical engines per month - roughly 10x capacity expansion I don't own Poet, but if management delivers on these projections it directionally looks very positive. However something to note is that unlike other suppliers that have named hyperscaler customers to to back up capacity revenues like $AAOI: $POET seems more questionable. But this does look like a very positive outlook for $POET if they match projections.
2026-06-29 13:26:31
🏷️ 20260629 今日关注
Honestly this decade from 2020-2030 might be the most goated in human history. - Scaling massive reusable rockets for orbital compute with $RKLB to $SPCX. - on the cusp of ASI and recursive learning with Anthropic and OpenAI - Backflipping Boston Dynamics and Unitree humanoids to replace the human workforce - Star Wars laser beams from $EOS.ASX to AI DC lasers like $LITE. - Waymo and $TSLA self driving cars everywhere in urban cities - and we get industry Quantum commercialization end of decade This is kinda crazy to be an investor in this timeframe. Feels like every movie from the Star Wars Death Star to Skynet is coming to life. What’s next?
2026-06-28 17:32:04
🏷️ 20260628 今日关注
Yup, Schaeffler $SHA0 is the ideal example for automotive players. ~ €7.47B MC auto player. - but also working with 45 humanoid players (extremely insane number, they do have €5.14b debt, EV is higher) - covers bearings, gearboxes, sensors/ECUs, actuators, power electronics. -ests. They can be roughly 50% BOM of a humanoid - targeting 10% market share of that. But only projecting a few hundred million revenue by 2030 (extremely sandbagged) if we’re using Elon’s projections for the market. Then’s theres auto players like Nabtesco (6268) for joints. And then Sanhua in China for $TSLA Optimus. Many of them are trade at lower valuations from drag from auto. But humanoids + AI Auto (TSM chairman cited this as a growth vector) should be a good catalyst past 2027 for automotive players. IMO there just needs to be a ChatGPT/Anthropic breakout downstream leader first for humanoids. That brings up the entire ecosystem that has robotics exposure. But as of now it’s probably like 1% of many of their overall revenue figures, and markets are focusing on immediate upside from bottlenecks like memory or MLCC. I’m sure we’ll see some random Toto-HBM type surprise as different humanoid architecture evolve.
2026-06-28 15:37:26
🏷️ 20260628 今日关注
Guess we finally found why $META signed massive agreements with Neoclouds like $NBIS back in March... And why Gemini got super nerfed. $GOOGL reportedly restricted Meta's capacity in March 2026 because of compute restraints. Google's CEO said from last earnings computing power restrictions prevented Google Cloud from taking on more customer needs and made the department's backlog nearly double the previous quarter. This is probably positive for the AI DC capex buildout since hyperscalers capacity is way below what is needed, and especially so if they can't rely on one another.
2026-06-28 11:34:17
🏷️ 20260628 今日关注
WSJ: “China Has Matched Anthropic in Cybersecurity, Resetting AI Race” China’s Zhipu AI, has matched Anthropic’s Mythos in certain benchmarks, such as exploiting cybersecurity bugs. Well, that’s not good. Instead of blaming the administration which did the correct thing… Anthropic’s clearly at fault for not setting enough guardrails to prevent distillation. Even before Fable release there were a lot of rumors that China had backdoors to distill it. Part of it is the trillions of capex to accelerate the AI moat. And the second part is not handing that work over on a silver platter for millions in API calls.
2026-06-27 16:42:45
🏷️ 20260627 今日关注
Robotics is next. Both deal count and investment amounts are skyrocketing per pitchbook March data (source: a16z) Good thing is: the same AI DC exposure often has cross-exposure to humanoid ramp. Like DRAM/NAND with memory (on humanoid inference/storage) or DFB lasers with photonics (FMCW LiDAR vision/sensing). Right now most exposure is upstream component parts… or programs within large players like $AMZN or $TSLA. So global IPO season H2 into 2027 for pure play humanoids/robotics companies is going to be fun.
2026-06-27 14:22:38
🏷️ 20260627 今日关注
Kinda nutty OpenAI’s is launching its heavyweight 5.6 Sol frontier model on $CBRS. At up to 750 tokens/sec, which is obscene performance. American inference go brrr. I actually picked up starter positions on Cerebras for the first time in the ~170s (below $185 IPO price) after seeing this news yesterday. Feels like validation of its tech. IMO a bit overvalued compared to profitable companies like $JBL at the same valuation. But there’s likely premiums for OpenAI exposure, as long as they stay the leader.
2026-06-27 10:11:30
🏷️ 20260627 今日关注
$SPCX / Elon Musk acquires Mesh, an optical networking startup. Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable). It’s seems they own the optical engine/packaging side of things, but likely sources CW DFB lasers off merchant companies. $SIVE is one of the more startup friendly plausible merchant suppliers as seen with Ayar to $POET? Maybe $LITE and $MTSI that were have a little history too, but less so. Regardless it’s very positive a lot of startups recently like Celestial have been acquired by Marvell. For both merchant laser supplier revenue (working with startups -> having hyperscalers like SpaceX drive revenue after being designed in already). As well as valuations from M&A desirability. Goes to show how optical interconnects is the right direction if Elon Musk is directly buying these companies.
2026-06-27 01:25:46
🏷️ 20260627 今日关注
Brooo, OpenAI is back and they're releasing their new model GPT-5.6 Sol. With their benchmarks, OpenAI claims: - Sol Ultra beats Mythos 5 and mogs it for coding/workflow. - And is better for bio/cybersecurity too. Pretty bullish on OpenAI again if they leapfrogged Anthropic.
2026-06-26 23:56:32
🏷️ 20260626 今日关注
Morgan Stanley: Retained its forecast for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates through year-end (no rate hikes). Michael Gapen said incoming data since the June FOMC meeting has made it "marginally more comfortable" in its no-hike baseline.
2026-06-26 21:06:00
🏷️ 20260626 今日关注
just throwing out a random thought, the UBS report is anecdotally true + and it's interesting there's more Chinese reports on Anthropic distillation. Many US startups/companies using AI: Are using Chinese models like DeepSeek since they’re much cheaper than Gemini/OpenAI/Anthropic reasoning models for cost per task. Kinda a catch 22 when US is built on capitalism and everyone goes for the cheaper options. I think the US just has to get good and out innovate here: - both with heavy KYC-auth frontier models for US only like Mythos given those are being distilled by competitors. and amybe staggered tiers for allied partners so US is always ahead Maybe something like dedicated AI Google auth like FaceID + Persona would do the trick before access/key creation for the newer models, then short lived scopes. At least addressing those simpler fake/stolen account + pool allegations, requiring biometrics before use. Then US Gov drafting new regulations making it illegal for sharing access similar to identity forgery with bank accounts. - then the most obvious one is just heavily optimized reasoning models that mogs DeepSeek and others. Kinda good Trump admin paused Fable/Mythos access, imo not quite sure why a trillion dollar company keeps letting itself get distilled over and over again. There should be friction added if you’re accessing something close to ASI. TLDR: US just needs to good at cheap inference and add bank-grade authentication to AI model access. Easier said than done tho.
2026-06-26 17:50:52
🏷️ 20260626 今日关注
OFC I'm aware. But I'm personally sleeping comfortably since I have conviction in my hyperscaler mapping research with $SIVE. And yes, I still have my million+ share position. Not sure if people realize this: but I'm only here to share my thoughts/ideas. I don't control market volatility, what decisions you all make, or how markets react to new information synthesis. It's much safer for analysts to just reactively tag along Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan/Goldman Sachs research whenever it's created and just summarize. Rather than coming up with new ideas from OSINT mapping and waiting them get validated. Because when you discover a new angle: Everyone keeps heatedly debating topics of 4-6 inch InP fabs, employee count, who their hyperscaler customers are, volume ramp timelines, etc to try and play devils advocate with a thesis. Then actively monitoring every single 5-20% price movement. I'm forced to stay on this topic more since it's less validated + there's always heated discussions. Just like $EWY in Feb, which I did memory projections on + Helium/LNG/Oil analysis. But months later everyone sees memory looks structural with Micron's 16+ LTAs and LNG isn't taking down SK Hynix margins. Or $NBIS from last year in terms of sum-of-parts / dilution structures vs $IREN. And now it's close to ATHs and listed on $QQQ. I'm personally just waiting Sivers to volume ramp in 2027 + listing on NASDAQ to support their M&A efforts. So they can walk down the same path as $LITE when they scaled from $3B to $60B+.
2026-06-26 15:47:43
🏷️ 20260626 今日关注
Just Elon Musk casually sounding the alarm. On the massive demand + price hikes for $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung memory relative to supply. He probably has higher visibility into the memory bottleneck than others…
2026-06-26 13:06:59
🏷️ 20260626 今日关注
“What matters is not the eggs, it is the Goose itself” SoftBank probably down -13.5% today after markets saw this investor presentation today. Also the OpenAI IPO possible 2027 delay cause Altman wanted a $1T valuation might have been a small cause…
2026-06-26 11:51:47
🏷️ 20260626 今日关注
There's a global correction right now, no clue when it stops. Kospi is down -8.18% (Sk hynix/Samsung) Nikkei is down -4.8% TWSE Index is down -3.82% As you've seen with $SOI or $RKLB dropping 30-40%. From personal experience, high beta stocks get hit a lot harder, but usually frontrun index drops. And they typically recover earlier? Aside from Korea which is typically volatile, when major indexes start correcting 3-4% a day, usually not a fun time.
2026-06-26 08:34:45
🏷️ 20260626 今日关注
Looks like Power Semis are already starting price hikes. Which is bullish thematically for US power semi trade from $AOSL to $POWI, before the 800V DC shift fully hits. China's Yangjie Technology, announced a 2nd price increase this year, raising prices across its full product range by 10%-15%, July 1. Chongqing China Resources Micro, Silan Microelectronics, and NCE Power also price hiked. “Demand is playing a larger role than costs in the latest round of price increases” from AI DCs, to energy systems, and new EVs. Another potential beneficiary is the upstream material companies that make these: - nonferrous metals like copper and tin. -Plastic molding compounds - chemicals, and packaging consumables “Nearly all major Chinese power semiconductor makers have raised prices in 2026.” (Digitimes) So positive read through on power semi adjacent (reduce China-driven price pressure + better pricing + demand validation)
2026-06-26 00:55:54
🏷️ 20260626 今日关注
Nah, gonna fill out the job application for $WEN and set up camp behind the dumpsters. Even $MU and $SNDK ridiculous performance today couldn't save my port. Cheering on Japan though, hoping Sweden gets mogged with a 2-0 to represent the 20% drop.
2026-06-26 00:15:27
🏷️ 20260626 今日关注
oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GFS reference laser - laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up - $POET and others for CPO scale out - $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers - O-Net for ELS mass production So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck... And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward. The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization). You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop. The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out. But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media. With $AAOI at $10B, you have: - A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027. - With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs. And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m). Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS. This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu. I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.
2026-06-25 22:51:04
🏷️ 20260625 今日关注
Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%. - Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M. - Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD. - Software like $CRM down -40%. - Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k. Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes. However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps. But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run. I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.
2026-06-25 13:46:15
🏷️ 20260625 今日关注
The $WEN meme traders made it to Global Media from Japan to US! The burger fast food chain is now up ~50%, which is pretty impressive. Feels bad to be sidelined and see my AI memory/optical portfolio perform worse than a $RDDT memestock tho. Did anyone take positions?
2026-06-25 12:56:18
🏷️ 20260625 今日关注
Global markets in a nutshell: Japanese Company: Active monopoly over random chokepoints in the hyperscaler AI buildout. Valuation: $150m-$350M Silicon Valley: Here's a $200m for a "Seed Round".
2026-06-25 11:45:23
🏷️ 20260625 今日关注
Very interesting statement today: $MU CEO predicts a multi-decade memory demand cycle driven by humanoid robots. "Humanoid robots, he says, will require roughly ten times more memory than today’s Level 2+ autonomous vehicles." "And that demand wave is set to begin before the decade is out." Something as well as was "Over time, we expect the value of on-device AI combined with pent-up unit replacement demand to drive memory demand growth" Which is also another trend (Apple Intelligence is currently dog, but I'm sure we'll see innovations with localized/edge AI). Feels like all the industry leaders from $TSM Chairman, $TSLA Elon Musk, to $MU CEO see humanoids as the next major trend so physical AI is probably next. I wonder if the world is going to have enough memory. Or if we'll see enough breakthroughs to shrink memory usage.
2026-06-25 10:15:43
🏷️ 20260625 今日关注
Think so. But in the meantime, I call my strategy: Diversified Losses. With $AXTI, $SOI, $AAOI, and many others. Had a massive drawdown recently, CPO exposure was hit the hardest (Foci, Msscorp, etc) and adjacent names, feels bad. Probably lesson personally, I had too much concentration in photonics vs. memory/other sectors without weighting/hedging properly. With Soitec, there's been a few negative institutional reports that I'd disagree with. Think AXT was hit harder in specific just because of float expansion/dilution concerns. AAOI, probably just brought down with the theme. I can't give advice on buying, so completely up to you to make for cost averaging or entering positions. But I do think we're still early in the Supercycle with photonics, there's bound to be corrections/crashes along the way up. If my personal thesis is correct though, many of these names will have a major inflection point in midway through 2027 scaling up to 2028. Markets don't typically wait to price things in advance, but some ideas might be a tad early or in the buildout given it's H2 2026 now. Which is why it's important to build your own conviction.
2026-06-25 08:20:02
🏷️ 20260625 今日关注
Today, Anthropic has directly accused the $BABA Qwen AI lab of distilling its frontier AI models. By creating thousands of fake accounts and over 28.8 million exchanges. Feels like this is kind of known by now... but there's been no real penalties enforced yet. We'll see what happens.
2026-06-25 05:16:46
🏷️ 20260625 今日关注
Always amazing looking at $MU earnings: Revenue: $41.46B vs. $35.8B est. EPS: $25.11 vs. $20.78 est. Forecasts: Revenue: $49B to $51B, vs $43.24B est EPS: $30.00 to $32.00, vs. $25.31. “Micron said on Wednesday that it has signed 16 long-term agreements” "When completed, we expect approximately half or more of our company revenue to be under these" Looks like memory demand has become structural… But great earnings to show up the AI trade is continuing to ramp up.
2026-06-24 21:53:11
🏷️ 20260624 今日关注
Nancy Pelosi just disclosed: - $1 million - $5 million of $INTC March 2027 calls - 200 $UBER March 19, 2027 call option contracts with a $50 strike price This was done last month May 29th. (her husband is the active trader executing this). Just for the people who like following along Pelosi family trades.
2026-06-24 21:30:53
🏷️ 20260624 今日关注
Fun new information discovery from Poet OSINT community: Seems likely that $POET / $SIVE are going to power a Top-3 hyperscaler (either Amazon, Microsoft, Google). Given a Linkedin update from Ankur Singla (CEO of Lumilens). Who stated their customer is one of the top 3 hyperscalers with their post focusing on CPO/NPO. With that clue, seems more likely the Sivers CW DFB light source path over other EML suppliers given it's CPO Scale Out/NPO. If you don't remember, Sivers is the laser supplier to Poet. And Poet has purchase agreements with Lumilens. Always fun to find major potential breadcrumbs in the wild before they're officially confirmed. (Disclosure, long Sive)
2026-06-24 14:52:41
🏷️ 20260624 今日关注
OpenLight (private) seems to get bigger and bigger every time I look at it. If you’re curious about their public ecosystem outside of Advantest: $JBL ( $SIVE partner ) for scaling PICs $MRVL and $MXL for DSPs $TSEM for the foundry. $300394.SZ / TFC Optical (OSAT/subassembly) Can often get exposure into private growth through public equities if you’re not an accredited investor. Since optical players look very interconnected.
2026-06-24 13:36:52
🏷️ 20260624 今日关注
Don’t quite think “siphoned off” is the correct term. It’s capex for massive revenue increase or margin increase down the line. $AMZN is probably my favorite hyperscaler right now and example to give. Amazon’s headcount is absurd, like ~1.57M. If the capex goes into automating their workforce with LLMs. Then transitioning into physical AI: - things from self driving (deliveries) - robotics (Amazon warehouses, shipping automation). + revenue increase from building out AWS compute with Trainium and possibly selling chips too with the Neocloud strat. It’s probably the clearest path forward compared to every hyperscaler out there. $TSLA optimus use case targets is extremely broad as a pitch, but Amazon already has a specific reason to scale robotics for internal opex optimization. As for $GOOGL, probably 2nd right now, AI capex was necessary for defending its Google Search moat Gemini from ChatGPT They also have Google Cloud revenue with efficient TPUs + can sell TPUs like Nvidia GPUs. Gemini user volumes keep going up (despite the lack of contention in frontier benchmarks); and AI strategy to be working for ad optimization too. But there’s less clear paths with physical AI stuff ig? Microsoft and Meta are still trying to convince the market why capex is necessary, (we’re kinda seeing that in effect with Meta’s 30%+ Y/Y revenue growth), but doesn’t look like they’re convinced. As for market narratives, Microsoft Maia seems to be behind, their AI development was stunted from OpenAi investments, so sentiment is kinda in the ground. But think that will change down the road like the 180 with Google. I’m sure all the hyperscalers are seeing the leader effect right now: If you have the leading LLM, people will keep using it. That LLM gets smarter from all the training data; and that gap might be structural. Which is why everyone is kinda rushing the buildout right now, but for some the immediate incentives seem obvious.
2026-06-24 12:07:20
🏷️ 20260624 今日关注
I find it interesting that the degens on $RDDT are starting a viral campaign to save Wendy’s ( $WEN ). The US fast food burger chain. And the stock price is now up 20% overnight. Just for background: Wendy’s is a popular community meme, where people work behind the dumpsters after their portfolios go to 0 from 0DTE options. (No positions, just found it amusing) I wonder if it’s going to work?
2026-06-23 23:42:09
🏷️ 20260623 今日关注
Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.
2026-06-23 22:39:35
🏷️ 20260623 今日关注
Today, $XFAB (1.23B MC) receives €127.4 million from CHIPS ACT for their MEMS Foundry. "The «Fab4Micro» in Erfurt is a key project for the technological sovereignty of Germany and Europe, explained Thuringia’s head of government." The production start is planned in 2028 (finanzen). With Europe's new CHIPS ACT 2 as a concurrent fundamental tailwind.
2026-06-23 22:08:54
🏷️ 20260623 今日关注
Dip looks like a clear buying opportunity for me personally from $MU, $INTC, to $TSM. Since we got a massive drop off BS narratives like 3 rate hikes off no newly material macroeconomic data (which comes out Thursday). If institutions really believed 3 rate hike sellside garbage that BofA put out: They would profit off it with CME/prediction markets. Which are still projecting 74% no rate hike in July. But they don't. So they're feeding retail investors garbage.
2026-06-23 20:38:16
🏷️ 20260623 今日关注
Nothing is more stupid than Bloomberg copying BofA playbook with KOSPI back in March. And framing Taiwan’s $TSM ~23.6x forward p/e and $NVDA upstream supply chain as a “bubble”. Then using the words going into “debt” instead of “margin” + comparing Taiwan’s market to the .com bubble. Crap like this is why retail trust in media has dropped off a cliff in the past few years.
2026-06-23 19:53:07
🏷️ 20260623 今日关注
$SIVE + Aeva likely coded from the new PR today and SIVE + Apple. For Sivers lasers powering robotics / physical AI. -> Sivers lasers powering Boston Dynamics Atlas via. LG Innotek for robotics -> Nvidia Hyperion ecosystem w/ Sivers lasers for physical AI. Are possible paths with Aeva. Apple likely using Sivers also reiterated from the newer webpage: “Optical sensing modules for wearables” from biometric and health monitoring. They just can’t namedrop partners due to confidentiality, but consumer sensing is probably the biggest tell. Physical AI and mass consumer production with Apple would be very material to revenue.
2026-06-23 18:55:58
🏷️ 20260623 今日关注
$XFAB upgraded to outperform with a PT of €12.8 by Bernstein, up from €5. Okay I forgive you Bernstein for Kioxia and Intel. I still think that’s just reactive PTs off automotive recovery, SiC/power semi ramp up. And undershooting potential a lot… If markets price in the possibility of xfab moving to HVM. On their silicon photonics foundry w/ photonixfab / Nvidia + LIGENTEC for TFLN on SOI. Regardless I’m bullish too on XFAB and curious where it heads.
2026-06-23 14:11:53
🏷️ 20260623 今日关注
There’s nothing like BoFA giving BS extreme bear predictions. To clear all the Korean leveraged traders a 2nd time this year. Korean markets are less resilient when it’s built on Aespa, Salmon skincare, and SK Hynix/Samsung memory names ig.
2026-06-23 12:10:58
🏷️ 20260623 今日关注
Bank of America looks like the malicious equivalent of Bernstein/Jim Cramer to retail. - said $KOSPI / $EWY was an extreme bubble, compared it to Silver crash back in March, causing retail to sell positions. The index proceeded to close to double and hit ATHs since that call. - saying “BoA expects 3 rate hikes in 2026”, Close to 0% chance on derivative markets and causes retail panic. While Trump administration calling for rate cuts. Absolutely harmful behavior from a US bank publishing this garbage to retail investors.
2026-06-23 11:16:44
🏷️ 20260623 今日关注
IMO photonics theme + CW laser chokepoint is goated. It's legit like markets have short term memory loss and forgot how $LITE went from $3B -> $65B+ from 2024 to now. Because $NVDA caused EML bottlenecks, and forced architectural changes. We're literally seeing the same thing today with CW lasers + 1.6T/CPO shifts with Nvidia signing LTAs everywhere. Now, $AMD + other CSPs are hunting for remaining scraps with large LTAs for CW lasers + optical components. GS Research's ~9-10x $154B optical TAM in 2028 and near $0 -> $91B CPO TAM in just 2 1/2 years. Don't just magically disappear from a month of trading volatility. $AAOI sitting at ~$13B, $SIVE sitting at ~$3B, and other CW laser players look strategically very valuable. And next year I think we'll look back and say "Why didn't I learn my lesson the first time with EML from Nvidia and pick up CW laser adjacent names!" Then there's likely gonna be some new mini trend 1-2 years from now like microled or quantum dot and we're gonna see the same thing repeat. Think Sumitomo's projections with CW laser share + silicon photonics being majority / dominant architecture should be correct. I'm personally just focusing on that bottleneck as you've seen with $SOI, $TSEM, $SIVE, and others.
2026-06-23 10:27:55
🏷️ 20260623 今日关注
Best time to long CXL for memory pooling was 4 months ago. $ALAB up 276% from $117 -> $440 $MRVL up 291% from $79 -> $309
2026-06-23 09:25:03
🏷️ 20260623 今日关注
I actually think OE Solutions ($138080.KQ ) makes the most sense as an acquisition target by a large downstream player. Since it’s now trading at a stupid ~$215M MC for scarce EML/CW laser IP. A Source Photonics / Suzhou Dongshan Precision type acquisition might add a lot more value to another company that wants to vertically integrate. Given there’s a lot of expensive R&D and capex required to scale their fabs and buildout ahead + it’s a small optical player. (Disclosure: I do own positions) Just floating the idea out there to other companies.
2026-06-23 08:21:07
🏷️ 20260623 今日关注
I wonder how it feels to miss out on the AI supercycle run… With photonics, memory, and even Neoclouds like $NBIS. Because you’re busy bagholding into the endless $6,000,000,000 active ATMs with $IREN.
2026-06-23 06:38:52
🏷️ 20260623 今日关注
Wow, $TSEM up 10%+ today. Good times, should have made this one of my largest positions in hindsight back in March. Foundries like $GFS and $INTC have been going brrr lately.
2026-06-22 22:43:38
🏷️ 20260622 今日关注
Wow, $SPCX is now down over $583B in MC... Since Jim Cramer gave a bullish call at $210. Pretty amazing to witness tbh. Inverse Cramer would have returned ~21% in 3 trading days, outperforming a year in your largest indexes?
2026-06-22 22:19:34
🏷️ 20260622 今日关注
That’s for you to decide. But just throwing this out there: If $AAOI hits projections, that’s over 800%+ Y/Y growth, and $5.6B revenue annualized off $12.8B MC. My guess is that the $471m/month will keep going up as demand seems to scale exponentially into 2028. I’d expect ASP/margins to go up across the board as well. Especially as the industry is bottlenecked and $AMD + CSPs are going around hunting for LTAs.
2026-06-22 18:33:46
🏷️ 20260622 今日关注
As for $LPK: Maybe $3B-$5B seems reasonable when they fully volume ramp if I had to guess. Feels more asymmetrical to me personally since it's just a waiting game and they have the customers for glass substrates. Small machine supplier chokepoints usually cap out from TAM though and don't go to $20B+ unless you're ASML or hold many chokepoints like KLAC. Not many dominant "monopolies" like these out there right before volume ramp this small: Maybe you have stuff like: - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~$8B - Towa (compression bonding) ~$2B - Techwing (memory handler/cube probes) ~$1.5B - MSScorps (CPO inspection), but pre-ramp. $850M - Riber (quantum MBE), very pre-ramp ~$350M Then LPK Laser for glass core substrates (about to ramp) at ~$730M, which thematically should have more premiums than memory. (eg. major advanced packaging shift, CPO adjacent, etc). Lot of obscure chemical monopolies I know of, but those don't get as much attention cause BOM is much lower than equipment. But for lpk you have: eg. “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”. 70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp, should be very material. (disclosure: own, the listed names above aside from techwing/aixtron, NFI). Just kinda the path they go if you follow $AEHR at ~$3.5B now: - <$500m: "Oh they have no customers!" ---> (probably somewhere in the middle here). - < $1.5B: "Maybe volume comes soon!" - $3B+ onward: "Looks like they're starting to volume ramp. Just a lesson for the cycle of the chokepoint machine suppliers from my personal experiences.
2026-06-22 10:14:41
🏷️ 20260622 今日关注
I expect Japan to mog Sweden in the World Cup tomorrow. Probably another 4-0 after Japan's soccer players saw how Swedish media treated $SIVE.
2026-06-22 09:20:35
🏷️ 20260622 今日关注
Wow, 3 limit ups in a row with WUS TW. Pretty sad I didn't take larger positions. WUS TW is 1 my 2 NAV arbitrage + independent growth trades. If you want context: WUS TW is a ~$1.12B PCB player with AI DC growth. Their stake in WUS Kunshan is $4.79B (11.4% of 42.04 billion) So basically they're a $1.1B PCB player growing independently, sitting on ~$4.79B worth of another company that looks to IPOed on Hong Kong markets soon. And a successful activist investor in Palliser (with Ajinomoto and Toto), is pressuring them to trim some holdings along with a few others. Seems like a pretty insane disconnect, and I think there's a lot of potential here.
2026-06-22 08:55:20
🏷️ 20260622 今日关注
Jeez, Japanese markets seem happy. Everything from Furukawa, Towa, Harmonic Drive, Ibiden, are up today. Probably after winning the World Cup game 4-0?
2026-06-21 19:04:51
🏷️ 20260621 今日关注
That’s a misconception: $SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up. Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc. - Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers. Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient. From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”. So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used. Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage). There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others). So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime. - for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET, $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players. - scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players. But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping. Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when. On top of things like this: For foundries like $GFS, $SIVE is the reference laser. Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains. This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long. Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.
2026-06-21 15:53:18
🏷️ 20260621 今日关注
I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here's my research/thoughts so far on it: They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI. And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T. OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3. Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share. So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world. However in terms of timelines: 1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026 2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force" 3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production. And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos. ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027. So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE, $AAOI, and the bigger players. (Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice). As for OE solution valuations: 1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals. 2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet. 3. Yields data kinda uncertain 1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea. 2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet. 3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex. I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company. Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands. But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields. And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target. Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO. Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements. TLDR on thoughts: Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early. I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL, $GFS, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp. As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products. And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk. But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers. With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.
2026-06-21 14:18:53
🏷️ 20260621 今日关注
Apparently gym bros are the new hyperscalers.
They’ve created a new bottleneck with whey protein?
Now there’s $SNDK style price hikes.
Maybe creatine is next with shortages.
2026-06-21 13:32:42
🏷️ 20260621 今日关注
Well, looks like prediction markets are about to get a ton of extra regulatory scrutiny.
They should also investigate how Polymarket pays influencers for undisclosed paid comments to game the X algorithm.
I get offered deals like this all the time as the most subscribed to person on X.
But as you know, I don’t do paid promotions since I want my research to be without outside influence.
2026-06-21 11:32:21
🏷️ 20260621 今日关注
Trump administration is prob realizing now that the key to winning Trade Wars:
Is through frontier supply chains like Quantum, AI, Robotics.
Not cheap Nike sock exports.
With $ASML, $TOWA, $LPK, Ajinomoto,
over in Japan, EU, TW, Korea, and others holding all the cards…
Since each country holds different monopolies and chokepoints needed to make each industry work.
Which all happens to be OUTSIDE the US.
Tariffing all our partners turned out to be not a great idea.
But not too late imo to repair relations and weaponize global supply chains through partners if Trump wants better trade deals.
2026-06-20 19:52:49
🏷️ 20260620 今日关注
I think u must be new here.
Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are.
$AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum.
They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later.
$RPI - everyone called it some meme stock.
Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals.
Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”.
Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth.
But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no.
$SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up.
Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason.
But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS.
Same hate with:
$AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady”
$LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble”
$RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock.
$HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells
$IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships”
$SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new
$NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat
$INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM
$MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom.
$AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue
$EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade
Can go on and on…
I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess).
But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again.
And the success in markets drown out the old noise.
Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
2026-06-20 17:46:52
🏷️ 20260620 今日关注
I’m just posting this since people seem really curious about X’s revenue sharing program.
Genuinely didn’t expect to get seen 100M+ times every 2 weeks!
Would keep doing the same thing tho, even if it were free and I just had a few friends from $RDDT to share ideas with.
2026-06-20 11:52:23
🏷️ 20260620 今日关注
In terms of personal notes:
Priortech owns 21% of $CAMT, ~1.35x their MC, seems more like holding co.
Bit Digital people kept shouting, but NAV discount is not clean $WYFI, lot of dilution + not AI parent.
Wistron (3231) is the best one I've seen since $SIVE + Ayar + Wiwynn are one of my favorite trio.
~$16.2B MC, Q1 revenue up a ridiculous amount with 144% Y/Y growth.
Owns 35.46% of Wiwynn, which is ~0.66x of MC. I'd expect Wiwynn to keep on growing.
- Sin-American Silicon 5483 does own 46.64% of GlobalWafers (6488).
MC is $3.5B, stake value is ~$7.9B, but not exactly growing too fast independently, though it's heavily trading heavily discount to NAV.
- Iljin Holdings owns 42.99% of Iljin Electric, it's ~$0.22B MC vs. ~$1.13B NAV holding. This was transformer/cable DC related.
But again idk if I trust korean stocks for NAV unlock, probably better for activist investors.
- Simmtech Holdings was ~$0.17B MC vs. ~$1.0B of parent, which also looks ridiculous.
So 6x+ NAV. PCB substrate related name. Also another prob don't trust korean governance type name.
I think both $ACMR and WUS have H-Share subsidiary listing soon, and those were the biggest NAV discounts with independent growth.
Then you have a highly successful activist going after WUS so I'd expect some middle ground there.
So maybe I'll put more concentration into those on top of what I already own Monday, we'll see. And Wistron was growing very fast independently.
I'm still doing research, normally this goes in shower thoughts since I haven't formally made a conclusion, but thought others might be interested.
2026-06-19 21:11:12
🏷️ 20260619 今日关注
Wow, I completely missed this with $LPK meeting notes.
And I think markets did too. My biggest takeaway:
- NASDAQ listing is actively on their radar and are in discussions.
- 70% market share targeted, unholy target.
- TAM greatly exceeds former projections.
- See a 4-5 base case of players this year with orders.
- Industry is ready for high volume ramps.
I do think LPK is very undervalued based on these discussions (disclosure: own positions).
2026-06-19 20:55:10
🏷️ 20260619 今日关注
Remind me whenever I call out a bottleneck, I should go long myself.
Just floated this idea out around MLCC bottlenecks awhile back.
Taiyo Yuden up 211.38% $VSH up 146.15% Murata up 155.43%
Within the last 2 months...
Feels bad.
2026-06-19 20:19:38
🏷️ 20260619 今日关注
I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes!
My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics.
And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE.
However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted:
That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though.
Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility.
As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action).
Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown.
I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD, $META ended up red. $SNAP, I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time.
But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL, $NBIS, $ARM, $INTC, $MU, $LITE, SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap.
Down to $AXTI, $LITE, $AAOI, $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well.
With random stuff like $SIMO, $HPS.A, $TSEM, $AEHR, $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too.
The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD.
But I've definitely missed a few.
Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad.
But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.
2026-06-19 17:04:06
🏷️ 20260619 今日关注
Bernstein is basically the institutional version of Jim Cramer:
Tells retail Kioxia looks like it’s going to crash, gives a -50% PT.
Bunch of retail sells.
Stock proceeds to skyrocket right after, with another +12% today.
2026-06-19 12:15:52
🏷️ 20260619 今日关注
Just a random thought, maybe someone can do a startup to solve this:
Interesting trend I’m seeing is human-recognized content farm spam sites like “Ad Hoc News”.
Flooding tens of old/repeated misleading AI news every day on specific companies for views.
But it’s treated highly + fresh to AI retrieval. So LLMs like Gemini get polluted citing that data.
Then you have people without technical backgrounds like college students making writeups on things they don’t understand, using AI.
Then LLMs get polluted in training/retrieval with that too, so you see people conflating the wrong technical nuance like comparing single channels of a cw dfb laser array vs. single high power lasers outputs.
So you have a feedback loop of low tier AI feeding into frontier AI. With model retrieval getting contaminated.
2026-06-19 10:22:27
🏷️ 20260619 今日关注
How does China manage to smuggle in something the size of a school bus from $ASML?
Is the real question.
2026-06-19 01:18:34
🏷️ 20260619 今日关注
Anyone got a list or ideas of the biggest NAV discounts. But independently has AI growth?
Stuff more extreme end like $ACMR and WUS (2316) compared to SK Square.
Have exposure to the ones above, just wanted to research more opportunities.
Seems to be getting noticed recently
2026-06-18 23:06:08
🏷️ 20260618 今日关注
Trump announced Intel + Apple partnership, sending $INTC up 8% today.
Intel execs were reportedly surprised by the $AAPL announcement by Donald Trump.
TBH, the President should lead Intel's marketing team at this point.
Feel's like he's hard carrying the stock.
2026-06-18 22:54:06
🏷️ 20260618 今日关注
Just a reminder: 99% of X was bearish on memory 3 months ago...
Since then:
$MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK Hynix 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) Samsung 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%)
If you see a bunch of projections on memory names like Samsung becoming the most profitable company in the world in 2028.
Might be a good idea to think independently outside of the narratives at the time like "Oil, LNG, Helium, Iran, etc."
Probably same thing now with optical names and their projections into 2027, 2028.
I do think photonics and memory are the 2 top themes though, with optics being very early into the supercycle.
2026-06-18 21:45:08
🏷️ 20260618 今日关注
I think Jim Cramer’s law needs to be studied in history books.
Even $SPCX can’t withstand his blessing.
2026-06-18 17:38:11
🏷️ 20260618 今日关注
非常感谢中文社区对我最看好股票的投资思路进行的深度剖析！
总的来说，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这样的激光公司是我个人的最爱，因为它们在拓展营收方面有着极大的想象空间。它们可以不仅仅局限于销售激光器，还能制造完整的光模块 以及各种光引擎或 ELS (外部光源) 组件。
又或者像 $COHR 那样，甚至可以向上游延伸进军衬底制造领域，从而实现垂直整合，并不断提升自身的毛利率和总潜在市场规模 TAM
这其中很大一部分的关键在于要率先精准踩中投资主线，毕竟去年很多人甚至都不觉得“光子学（photonics）”能成为一个真正的热门概念。
而且我认为最会让大多数人感到惊讶的是，我们目前仍处于极其早期的阶段。绝大多数的营收放量（爬坡）要到明年，也就是 2027 年的上半年乃至下半年才会真正开始！
不过，能看到中文社区大家持续不断的支持，真的让我感觉非常棒。我会尽我所能，不辜负大家给我起的 “白毛股神” 这个称号。
2026-06-18 15:43:15
🏷️ 20260618 今日关注
$ALRIB general meeting notes came out today.
-2nd ROSIE System expected to be delivered shortly to a leading quantum computing player” in the US.
- They’re also intensifying BD for their products used for BTO/STO on photonics and recorded strong interest.
Just for background, they’re the MBE duopoly with Veeco, which got re-rated heavily recently (Disclosure own Riber), with exposure to Quantum.
Positive development overall.
2026-06-18 10:10:26
🏷️ 20260618 今日关注
The 1st large scale X study on stock market net worth has finished!
From the 6000+ responses of those active on X finance, here's the results:
5.8% - $10M+ 15% - $1m - $10M 35.9% - $100k - $1M 43.3% - under $100k
This is probably more representative of active followers.
Where 20.8 out of every 100 people have over $1,000,000+.
And 5.8 out of 100 have over $10,000,000.
And 43.3% of the population are probably happier in life than the rest.
Was just curious, fascinating figures.
Definitely not representative of the total population, but just those active on Finance X.
2026-06-18 09:01:57
🏷️ 20260618 今日关注
I agree with Palliser Capital here.
As a shareholder, it’s just so stupid how WUS (2316 TW) MC can be ~$1B MC.
While they own a 11.26% stake of WUS Kunshan, a $39.3B (¥282B CNY) company…
Which is worth $4.42B pre-tax. Just sell 1/4th or something?
And you get an extra ~$1.1B for PCB growth at the inflection point with AI demand.
Which is more than your current MC pre-tax, purely in cash.
And there’s still $3.3B in assets + markets might revalue your company because of willingness to trim locked up assets.
Nobody is asking you to trim everything, but the NAV disconnect is insanity.
WUS TW management should really reconsider.
2026-06-17 23:46:21
🏷️ 20260617 今日关注
Jim Cramer gave $SPCX his blessing.
2026-06-17 23:24:06
🏷️ 20260617 今日关注
$AEHR receives follow up production order from major Silicon Photonics Customer for wafer level burn in systems.
Now up 11.29% today to $116.
Only 2 months ago it was in the $30's, good times.
2026-06-17 22:57:10
🏷️ 20260617 今日关注
And 7 months later... $NBIS is all time highs.
While $IREN bagholders are still funding the $6,000,000,000 ATM and stuck at the same price back in November.
Guess this settles the debate?
2026-06-17 21:18:06
🏷️ 20260617 今日关注
Don’t think there’s any new news from $XFAB.
Their company needs to do a better job with marketing materials though.
Since nobody thinks they’re optical ai dc or power semi adjacent exposure apparently.
However, I would have thought that since they’re leading Europe’s silicon photonics value chain efforts with PhotonixFab.
And apparently everyone + EU are discussing sovereign AI supply chains after Fable’s export controls.
One might think they’re a major beneficiary alongside IMEC, ligentec and others in the sovereign AI push?
Anyway, markets can always disagree or maybe they didn’t link things together.
Regardless, I’m just curious how this plays out. (Disclosure, own positions)
2026-06-17 20:01:32
🏷️ 20260617 今日关注
I mean... if i had to guess, $LPK did claim "80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment".
Kinda clear glass substrates is the next packaging shift!
From est. timelines, major players like Absolics is ramping H2 2026, Samsung Electro Mechanics 2027 + their partners.
Then there's major shifts like TSM CoPoS 2028 (seems possible $LPK upstream exposure, unconfirmed).
Just that claim of 80% is staggering and my personal expectation was markets might price it in eventually as they volume ramp (disclosure, own LPK).
Don't think there needs to be any major news, probably just getting closer to HVM timelines.
2026-06-17 19:24:26
🏷️ 20260617 今日关注
Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders...
Is probably just the start of the bottleneck?
There's not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom.
Especially after Lumentum/Coherent got locked up with multi-year agreements with Nvidia. (disclosure, own Sive and aaoi)
Lumentum is already CW laser constrained and is likely buying off Japanese companies like Sumitomo/Furukawa if I had to guess per ER, and those are probably running at max capacity.
From the Trendforce report, this is:
"to ensure that its future capacity will not be constrained by NVIDIA and other major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)."
I wouldn't be surprised if other hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and others saw Nvidia / AMD signing LTAs, and are trying to secure capacity next.
A lot of it is game theory on not getting choked out by competitors, and looks like AMD is tipping the first domino after Nvidia.
But my opinion is that this just goes and show how invaluable this CW laser chokepoint is and the companies are inside it.
2026-06-17 14:40:09
🏷️ 20260617 今日关注
European Media HATES this one trick:
The same ideas, just behind $2000 paywalls.
2026-06-17 13:31:46
🏷️ 20260617 今日关注
Bernstein is legit the dumbest analyst firm I’ve seen calling for a 50% crash in Kioxia.
They gave $INTC a $36 PT back in Jan and now it’s $118.
Good lesson to ignore institutional reports that get published for retail consumption.
They’re not here to help retail investors.
2026-06-17 10:26:55
🏷️ 20260617 今日关注
I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long…
Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right).
They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for.
While the entire industry is bottlenecked by $NVDA.
Along with a US transceiver supply chain for mass production of 800g/1.6T (management - largest in America).
While demand far exceeds supply and while assembly gets outsourced to Asia.
Then they’re quoting $471M monthly revenue in H1 entering H2 of 2027. Which is $5.6B ARR, off a $13.5B MC…
While a lot of major inflection volume hits even later in 2028.
As for fluctuations, there might be active $600M ATMs that get tapped into at random times.
And random bear posts + macro from time to time that cause more volatility (eg. Analyst notes saying bear on $LITE due to false CPO delay rumors, then that brings down others in the sector).
Also we’re a year out so timelines are still a little early.
I haven’t seen such fast revenue ramp since $NBIS.
2026-06-17 07:57:48
🏷️ 20260617 今日关注
Mizuho Research: No delays on CPO or 800v dc.
Revised up optical engine projections from $NVDA demand ramp.
Next phase in CPO for long term, believes InP DFB lasers remains the focus (hello $SIVE). VSCEL and microLED remain "unproven" in short distance in rack + chip to chip for 1.6T+
HVDC deployment on track, 800VDC incremental volume 2027, with higher penetration in 2028.
What a stupid CPO related selloff recently.
2026-06-16 21:00:15
🏷️ 20260616 今日关注
Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history.
To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution.
Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence.
The amount of economic impact can't be measured if AI helps find cures for cancer or accelerates discovery for Quantum Computing.
Or if AI end up displacing the workforce, which increases profitability for companies.
The US Gov has every incentive to keep the buildout going too, as the implications from Warfare, Cybersecurity, is also immeasurable if China takes the lead.
So there's likely to be incentives and subsidies to win, even if there's not enough profit derived LLM training/inference.
As for sustainability, when you look upstream, $GOOGL is able to fund it majorly with their own cashflow, same with $AMZN, $MSFT.
More lukewarm on $META. Very iffy about $ORCL.
But I do see some bubbles forming around debt interest like $CRWV.
Maybe circular valuations that's happening with OpenAI backlog agreements or $NVDA / $AMD agreements with Neoclouds to buy their GPUs.
But as seen with $MSFT and having OpenAI be a major part of the backlog, it did correct off the information, so "bubbles" like that do pop despite the overall markets increasing.
Definitely don't see a bubble in upstream semiconductors from $LITE to Sk Hynix though since the amount of profit they get from the buildout would likely be insane to make up for capex decreasing.
OpenAI was actually my biggest fear from contagion, eg. $CRWV, $CBRS and others, but they just raised a lot.
So think it will be fine for another 1 1/2 years of capex, especially if they IPO this year.
I also don't think we'll get massive Fed tightening despite "predictions" since this will trigger a contagion since many of these players rely heavily on debt.
And although the Fed is independent, don't think Trump would have supported someone who is against his administration goals.
As for semiconductor valuations going up every day like $AMD or $MU, there's probably going to be some corrections here and there. Everything going up together is kinda unhealthy.
Can't time the capex peak but just from $AVGO and other projections, it just keeps accelerating exponentially into 2028.
Especially as everyone is starting to sign multi year agreements as well.
OpenAI contagion / hyperscaler capex decreasing / fed tightening was what I'm looking out for, and no blaring signs of any of those yet.
So I think the music will keep playing for this year at the bare minimum.
2026-06-16 19:01:48
🏷️ 20260616 今日关注
Woah, $SPCX acquired Cursor for $60B.
I did not think it was worth that much…
Maybe network effect or data for improving models became invaluable?
I’m sure Elon has a plan in mind, the Twitter acquisition paid extreme dividends.
2026-06-16 18:00:19
🏷️ 20260616 今日关注
Yeah... I'm not quite sure why everyone likes just throwing personal accusations.
Like "scam" or "memestock" every time I post a thesis.
Like when I bought $AXTI (still holding shares btw):
- spent the time mapping the InP substrate supply chain
- found analyst sources around market share
- tracked high purity indium pricing on SMM
- modeled game theory around bottleneck hikes/supply shocks.
- tracked Gov publications like seizure of optical companies or export controls
Then just posted the idea for free, cause it's a hobby.
Everyone just threw out personal insults as it went up in price...
Just for Reuters to confirm it 7M later that InP substrates can halt the AI buildout.
I'm just sharing ideas out for free, could always be wrong, and they usually take some time to play out.
But would prefer instead if folks/media played devil's advocate on the thesis side like export controls or ASP pricing power...
Over just making up narratives or personal accusations like "memestock" or "foreign institutional team" when they lack the technical depth to understand AI supply chains.
2026-06-16 15:54:44
🏷️ 20260616 今日关注
I did say $MU looked like the next $NVDA. Now we're at a $1.23T MC.
Started talking more about Samsung Electronics/Sk Hynix back in 2025.
Put more concentration into the memory theme like $SNDK and others, Jan of this year.
And I'm glad my prediction with Micron + memory is playing out well!
Hope people had fun with $EWY longs too, those are up a lot.
2026-06-16 15:28:51
🏷️ 20260616 今日关注
Fun throwback to random ideas back in 2025.
Back then, $AAOI was $2B MC, $LITE was a $26B MC, $AXTI was $500M
Now:
- AAOI is $15.37B
- Lumentum is $74.47B
- AXT is $7.24B
Was working off less information back then, given it was an early theme.
Obviously nuances with ASIC programs might have been missed as more details came out.
But directionally, glad thematically my ideas turned out correct.
Feels like dejavu seeing current $3B MC optical longs like $SIVE.
2026-06-16 10:20:57
🏷️ 20260616 今日关注
New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply.
And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce)
Obvious CW laser beneficiaries:
- $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level)
- $AAOI (Rosenblatt analyst checks)
Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well.
Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co).
Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers).
I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels.
To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.
2026-06-16 09:52:02
🏷️ 20260616 今日关注
I'm actually curious about the wealth distribution on finance X (this is anonymous).
I don't think there's been any studies before.
2026-06-16 08:19:25
🏷️ 20260616 今日关注
Apparently, $SPCX is a $2.5T company now.
I did say Americans would buy anything futuristic without caring about valuations...
I guess everything in Murica go brrr.
2026-06-16 00:11:18
🏷️ 20260616 今日关注
tbh I wasted like 5 minutes thinking if this question was stupid or genius.
2026-06-15 22:56:05
🏷️ 20260615 今日关注
Just as a recap, these were all my core European longs:
- $SIVE
- $LPK
- $SOI
- $RPI
- $IQE
- $ALRIB
- $XFAB
Sivers: As you know by now, core laser chokepoint over next generation photonics, from 1.6T pluggables to CPO.
Embedded in many hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil to Ayar. Should go brrr 2027 but markets are forward looking, so ramps + qualifications should get priced in now.
LPK Laser - Glass core substrate "monopoly" with LIDE.
"More than 80% of major global players have selected our equipment for process validation, learning and scaling to mass production"
Soitec - Silicon photonics SoI substrate pure monopoly while coming out of legacy drag segments.
Raspberry Pi - Was my fun idea around Raspberry Pis being used for AI hardware deployments.
Previously this thing was mainly educational or hobby boards, but now used for edge/local AI. Just thought revenue increase would be extremely material and it played out well.
IQE - Critical epiwafer player for your Western photonics like Macom, Tower, Lumentum, and others.
Was kinda going under, but thought their latent capacity relative to Landmark was undervalued.
Also given how important it was, I thought that your downstream players + Govs wouldn't let it go under, so it was more of a moonshot idea earlier in the year.
Lot more derisked now, very important.
Riber - Kinda monopoly in the MBE space, exposure to Quantum / quantum dot + silicon photonics.
Found out from OSINT help from a friend latentvalue that Microsoft Quantum was buying their machines, so this was direct hyperscaler validation + kinda de-risked at current MCs.
XFab - SiC foundry backed by EU/US CHIPS Act with power semi upside. (152% Y/Y growth for their sic vertical).
Main growth was their silicon photonics foundry past 2027 that's getting evaled by nvidia. And that they're leading Europe's value chain efforts in photonics, kinda like an early tower semi.
We'll see how this plays out, thought power semi exposure + low P/B would derisk the company until they scale their photbunchonics efforts.
From my own personal thoughts:
Out of the maybe $SOI has already been re-rated the most? But I'm holding anyway.
$LPK and $ALRIB I think are still undervalued despite their monopolies.
$RPI is just kinda seeing how things go at this point, would be hilarious if they ended up like a mini nvidia for low end edge ai.
$IQE probably has a long way to go given new tower long term agreement, alongside macom. And if they convert latent capacity, I still think it has a chance of rerating like landmark.
$XFAB idk if im missing something or are markets missing something. you have nvidia as a direct eval of their silicon photonics foundry, and it's trading below replacement P/B. i think im right though.
$SIVE I see has the highest upside out of all of them given laser company ability to vertically integrate, acquire companies downstream to make their lasers more valuable, etc. Just like coherent/lumentum.
There's like 1-2 more random ones that aren't really material, but just in general.
These are the ones I've liked the most.
2026-06-15 22:02:20
🏷️ 20260615 今日关注
I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on:
Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory.
Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS.
Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling pressure from the ATM, while $NBIS reaches ATHs.
But the bagholders still don’t want to admit it.
Think a core part is knowing what theme comes next with markets, then comes picking the winner + heavy concentration in them.
If you went long on software and chose the ideal stock, you’d probably end up not as happy?
Photonics is still probably the earliest out of the three.
But I can see Nebius end up like AWS one day.
And $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung potentially end up like a mini $NVDA if memory demand is structural.
2026-06-15 20:31:08
🏷️ 20260615 今日关注
$SIVE is the next SIVE.
Don’t think you’ll find another company.
That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with:
- $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers
- Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems
While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and pluggable/CPO/NPO deployments.
That hyperscalers like $AMD and others use, at current valuations.
Even $POET buys $SIVE lasers and Poet is about the same valuation just off having one $50m purchase agreement.
Amount of hyperscaler suppliers for 2027 into 2028 is just ridiculous.
From the general meeting today in a few hours, we’ll hopefully see NASDAQ listing timelines confirmed.
So they can have room for M&A to TAM expansion and to make each laser they sell more valuable.
Following what $LITE did to grow into a $75B company.
2026-06-15 16:18:22
🏷️ 20260615 今日关注
Ur welcome with $IQE
2026-06-15 15:25:28
🏷️ 20260615 今日关注
Wow, $IQE and $TSEM sign a multi year InP epiwafer deal.
Remember I told you all IQE was important to Western optical supply chains back at $12?
$MTSI had to go out of their way to secure their supply with IQE.
Now there’s another critical deal with Tower Semi.
2026-06-15 14:15:51
🏷️ 20260615 今日关注
I did say Foosung (093370) was going to be a major winner from the bottleneck created by Chinese export controls on Japan…
Most people chase 7.5% index returns, yet random bottlenecks spotted might be 21% in a day lol
2026-06-15 11:21:12
🏷️ 20260615 今日关注
Yep, very stupid to be a bear.
When Trump is doing everything to boost markets before Midterms.
On top, your $WOLF power semi basket should go brrr from 800 VDC acceleration.
$LITE optical basket should go brrr from InP easing.
$SPCX successful IPO gives more appetite to risk on themes/IPOs (eg. Space sector).
And overall macro go brr from War/Strait peace deals.
It’s already kind of showing, since 2026 rate hike odds also crashed from 65% -> 35% following the news. Along with crude futures dropping.
I've actually found Europe to be the most price sensitive to Iran tensions, so EU markets would probably be the most bullish overall…
(South Korea/TW was originally with Sk Hynix moving directly in correlation to crude oil futures, but stopped caring after awhile).
But basically: Murica go brrrr.
2026-06-15 10:02:59
🏷️ 20260615 今日关注
Today, there's a new report that China eased InP substrate exports.
Which is expected to relieve mass production bottlenecks in the photonics market (source: Digitimes)
My optical positions are very happy to hear this:
From $AXTI (substrates), $IQE (epiwafers) to $AAOI (lasers) / $LITE / $SIVE, and others.
Taiwanese optical players like VPEC, Landmark, and others should go brrr as well.
Just to recap: the photonics market, especially for laser companies is moreso "how much can you make" rather than how much demand is there.
InP substrates was one of the main bottlenecks affecting upstream capacity.
So if you're able to make more = more revenue.
2026-06-15 09:24:47
🏷️ 20260615 今日关注
$NVDA and $GOOGL lead 800V DC ahead of schedule.
"Ahead of schedule", pulled up to Q3 2026 with small volume shipments starting .
- Delta Electronics (2308), $VRT
- Song Chuan Precision (7788)
- Schneider Electric, Eaton, Siemens.
All flagged as beneficiaries.
"Market sources indicate that Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform and Google’s next-generation AI data centers will be the first to adopt the technology"
Source: Commercial Times
The power semi trade should be happy to hear this.
2026-06-14 23:27:22
🏷️ 20260614
This is gonna upset a lot of people:
But TA is astrology for traders.
It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries.
Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology.
$SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499.
It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced.
$AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8.
it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others.
If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA.
But for determining the actual upside... nah
People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first.
It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on.
Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at.
So for entry points, sure you can use TA.
For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.
2026-06-14 09:43:24
🏷️ 20260614
Do people in Sweden have a hard time making plans for lunch a day in advance?
2026-06-14 06:51:12
🏷️ 20260614
If I had to stereotype my X experiences with markets:
China 🇨🇳: set on cloning me with AI, can only think of trades in short term timeframes from A-shares PTSD.
America 🇺🇸: bullish on anything futuristic like $SPCX, don’t care about valuations
Europe 🇪🇺: from $SIVE to $SOI, cares more about water usage than the AI buildout. Somehow can only look at past 12 months. (Belgium is cool so far), looking at you France + Sweden
Korea 🇰🇷: leveraged degens. I’ve never seen a market so volatile. Equivalent of 50x hyperliquid traders but with stock markets.
Japan 🇯🇵: somehow supportive of everything, haven’t seen any Japanese person aggressively bear post and short stocks before.
Not enough data on other places yet like Latin America, but will have some soon enough ig.
2026-06-13 20:53:13
🏷️ 20260613
It’s been officially 3 months since I posted my $SIVE long thesis back at 4 SEK.
This idea is now up ~1900%…
With many US institutions from JPM to Fidelity only recently entering positions.
Probably my 2nd greatest thesis of all time after $AXTI.
Did you listen anon?
2026-06-13 19:27:47
🏷️ 20260613
한국 어머니들은 원래 이렇게 사기캐인가요? 어머님이 WF6의 3차 파급 효과(third-order effect)에 따른 공급망 차질을 파악하셨다니 정말 놀랍습니다.
중국의 대(對)일본 텅스텐 수출 통제로 인해, 전구체 부족 및 원가 상승이 발생하여 글로벌 공급망의 25~35%가 타격을 입게 된다는 사실을 말이죠.
게다가 후성(093370)이 SK하이닉스 같은 메모리 반도체 제조사들에게 얼마나 중요한 기업인지 짚어내시고,
이 공급망에 얽힌 수많은 기업들 중에서도 시가총액 12억 달러(약 1조 6천억 원) 규모의 이 한국 기업을, 해당 병목 현상에 투자할 수 있는 가장 최적의 저평가된 투자처(exposure)로 정확히 발굴해 내시다니요?
진심으로 감탄했습니다.
2026-06-13 18:03:47
🏷️ 20260613
Okay my fellow Koreans, it's been awhile.
Foosung (093370, ~$1.2B MC) looks like a massive beneficiary soon.
Basically China export controlled Japan, causing their WF₆ supply chain to go down.
Meaning 25% of the world's supply required for SK Hynix, Samsung, $TSM go bye bye.
If you remember the Straight of Homuz with Oil, that's a lot.
Foosung's importance just shot through the roof given from some est. they're 10% of the supply chain?
So that number goes up, massive bottleneck for demand. Then this looks like the best pure play beneficiary outside of China (even if precursors pricing are rough).
Don't have positions, just wanted to publish an idea.
2026-06-13 12:20:16
🏷️ 20260613
The AI supremacy Wars begins.
Think a lot of the upstream supply chain bottlenecks caused by each Country export controlling each other (eg. $AXTI)
Should present some interesting opportunities in the near future.
That being said, Anthropic was getting distilled left and right in Singapore -> China and others.
Hot take, but steps like this do help preserve American dominance in AI, keeping the most advanced model at home.
I don’t think Superintelligence should be global access, since we’re starting to get into uncharted territories.
2026-06-12 23:55:15
🏷️ 20260612 今日关注
$SPCX is now trading!
And it’s now over $2.15T+ MC.
2026-06-12 22:00:28
🏷️ 20260612 今日关注
All the $SNDK short sellers went extinct.
Can’t believe it’s almost $2000 now?
That aside feels like everyone is just waiting for the $SPCX IPO in a few hours.
2026-06-12 19:39:53
🏷️ 20260612 今日关注
Price action now is probably just large US institutions positioning with $SIVE.
JP Morgan went from .4% to 5.3% ownership, and are likely increasing.
Fidelity Research and other active investors have now appeared on the cap table.
And wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up filing an ownership disclosure like JPM.
Then there’s Blackrock and others for passive inflow…
Regardless, glad the large US institutions validated my thesis if they’re taking active stakes.
2026-06-12 16:31:08
🏷️ 20260612 今日关注
Bro I still can't believe Japan's WF6 supply chain got shut down from China export controls.
Which affects $TSM, Samsung, and SK Hynix.
Are we really playing global supply chain warfare and game theory over AI supremacy?
Japan probably has the most amount of obscure monopolies, but they haven't fully been weaponizing it back yet.
So I wonder if this is the start of a slippery slope?
2026-06-12 15:22:33
🏷️ 20260612 今日关注
VPEC new price hikes on Epiwafers today.
Positive bottleneck read through on companies like $IQE and Landmark (3081) in terms of pricing power/demand for epiwafers.
This follows $MTSI investment into IQE to secure capacity, and shows how important some of these chokepoints are.
(disclosure: have positions in IQE)
2026-06-12 12:26:43
🏷️ 20260612 今日关注
Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well!
From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175
And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM!
This was back when I had close to no followers!
I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions.
But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now).
So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention?
But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well.
And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.
2026-06-12 10:39:57
🏷️ 20260612 今日关注
Woah, $NBIS, $ALAB, and $RKLB got added to Nasdaq 100!
Fun to see both Astera, Rocketlab and Weebius grow up from being small companies…
Into the largest ones on Nasdaq
2026-06-12 02:19:06
🏷️ 20260612 今日关注
Just in case you’re wondering why indexes + individual names like $SNDK to $MRVL to $LITE are green now.
Trump just cancelled attacks on Iran.
This market is so volatile…
2026-06-12 01:54:35
🏷️ 20260612 今日关注
New Anthropic news looks like a potential tailwind for the Neocloud colo sector.
Such as $WULF, $CIFR, $WYFI, $HUT and others (not named yet).
As Anthropic is pursuing its first DC leases.
"The AI company has signed more than a dozen letters of intent with U.S. developers" per The Information.
2026-06-12 00:49:50
🏷️ 20260612 今日关注
If you haven’t noticed too with my other investment themes with 800V DC and CPO recently.
It’s investing in $NVDA, America’s national champion in AI, and securing their supply chains.
Many things feel technologically difficult with yields to substrate supply.
People can always bear post laser capacity or export control bottlenecks and tell people to short Nvidia’s supply chains due to difficulties.
But by investing in the critical companies to give them more capex spend for FAU capacity / yields.
Or funding upstream red phosphorus/InP substrate capacity or SiC/GaN capacity.
It builds up Western supply chains to make what’s technologically challenging, possible.
Also I believe in Jensen.
2026-06-12 00:13:28
🏷️ 20260612 今日关注
Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI.
Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear.
Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand...
With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others...
If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains.
Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones.
As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid.
I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today.
Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America.
Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later.
US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.
2026-06-11 23:05:53
🏷️ 20260611 今日关注
At this point I can't tell anymore if markets from $META to $MSFT are correcting because of macro.
Or just liquidity pull from $SPCX + index inclusion.
And institutions frontrunning Nasdaq 100 and other rebalancing of SpaceX...
Anyone know?
2026-06-11 22:07:42
🏷️ 20260611 今日关注
Woah, Frankfurt Bank strategists say:
8% of US current-account deficit could be refinanced in a single day by overseas demand for SpaceX ( $SPCX ) shares.
Excited to see how markets react around a Mega-IPO...
Don't think there's been any historical precedence like this yet?
2026-06-11 18:40:25
🏷️ 20260611 今日关注
There was interesting research published called "Democratization of Retail Trading".
That did a study on 1.6 Million $RDDT WSB comments.
and found:
"WSB outperformed almost all investment banks at detecting top-performing stocks."
"Their average returns compete with the best investment banks and outperform them in certain cases."
Their conclusion?
"We conclude that WSB may indeed constitute a freely accessible, valuable source of investment advice."
I do find WSB is really early to names like $RKLB, $HOOD, and others, but often get timing extremely wrong (with options).
I think X is where all the alpha is at nowadays.
2026-06-11 17:54:56
🏷️ 20260611 今日关注
Why do I keep getting these questions!!!
$XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations.
It takes time... Like October 2026, should finish up development.
Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they've been working on it since 2023.
Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth.
So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes.
I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized.
Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).
2026-06-11 16:46:38
🏷️ 20260611 今日关注
Just thought this was interesting: $LPK is an unknown SpaceX supplier.
You can find it in SpaceX US import logs.
It's fun information discovery ahead of Space'x IPO this week. Though, not sure what the exact contract entails.
Disclosure: I have positions in LPK, NFA, credit to my follower Albert_TheVoid for the DM!
Especially since everyone seems to be talking about about SpaceX with Velo...
Just a fun, new direct relationship between $LPK and SpaceX if people want to do more digging.
2026-06-11 16:11:37
🏷️ 20260611 今日关注
I like $SIVE
2026-06-11 13:27:12
🏷️ 20260611 今日关注
Oh look… a new report by Reuters shows China’s control over InP threatens the AI DC buildout.
Who could have guessed $AXTI would have been a major point of failure?
2026-06-11 11:18:16
🏷️ 20260611 今日关注
这周我自己的投资组合表现令人失望。
目前今年迄今（YTD）仅上涨了 +3,612.10%。
我在获利时会分享，但我也同样会经历大幅回撤！
比如像 Foci/Shunsin $SOI, $AAOI 以及其他 CPO 相关标的。
如果 Alpha 足够强，不管宏观大环境如何，这些股票都应该继续涨才对…
所以对我来说，这也是一个学习的过程，需要不断微调我自己的思路，以及理解市场是如何对不同主题/供应链的各个环节进行定价的。
我只是边走边分享而已！
2026-06-11 09:38:21
🏷️ 20260611 今日关注
Basically this… and it’s how cycles work.
Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts.
There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE.
And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table.
Happened last year with $NBIS.
> I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs.
Two years before it was $RKLB
> Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs
I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX.
So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity.
Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently.
Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise.
Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work.
They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.
2026-06-11 00:07:43
🏷️ 20260611 今日关注
Just in case you weren’t aware…
The broader index is down a significant -3-4%.
Stocks don’t move in a straight lineup unless you’re $SNDK.
And are largely affected by wider selloffs.
Curious what my follower portfolios look like you’re green this week + long only?
2026-06-10 21:44:57
🏷️ 20260610 本周精选
Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should.
The initial selloff was just stupid.
2026-06-10 18:47:56
🏷️ 20260610 本周精选
Morgan Stanley: $NVDA has denied the reports 800V DC has been pushed back.
Recent SemiAnalysis reports run contrary to our own checks at Computex.
Bro this has gotta be the dumbest CPO/800V selloff I’ve seen.
Since the selloff from their claim $MU had 0 share of Nvidia HBM4
2026-06-10 15:20:22
🏷️ 20260610 本周精选
Yep, Blackrock has now entered $SIVE positions as passive owners following index listing.
Fidelity Research has shown up as starting direct positions of Sivers too.
Remember when JP Morgan showed up last month with small positions…
Then bought ~5.25% of the company?
This looks like US institutions validated Sivers’s position in photonics and are trying to accumulate positions.
2026-06-10 13:11:38
🏷️ 20260610 本周精选
If you want a TLDR of today:
> be $NVDA, $5T company. Force shift to 800V DC and CPO
> analyst: I don’t think u can do it in time!
> market: “I don’t trust Nvidia, time to sell everything”
> Nvidia and Lumentum executives after: Bullish on CPO, timelines accelerating.
???
2026-06-10 12:29:21
🏷️ 20260610 本周精选
$LITE Management Speech from Mizuho Technology at today’s conference.
The company expects to start shipping CPO scale up optical products in the second half of 2027.
With formal ramp up in 2028.
No delays, as this aligns with previous timelines shared.
So today, we also got confirmation from $NVDA SVP no delays on CPO scale out timelines H2 2026, and they’re beginning mass production.
And $LITE management also stated no delays on CPO scale up timeline.
The leading companies in Nvidia and Lumentum probably know their own timelines the better than incorrect analyst reports telling them no.
And both are incredibly bullish on TAM and opportunities.
2026-06-10 11:43:40
🏷️ 20260610 本周精选
$NVDA Networking Senior Vice President refuting recent analyst reports on delays:
- “ the most exciting stuff is co-packaged optics.”
- There is no delay in H2 CPO product delivery schedule.
- CPO switch will enter mass production and begin ramping up customer deliveries as planned in the second half of 2026
This was a media article, original interview source credit should have been credited to Tae Kim / Computex.
Something fun to note too was this quote “Gilad was VERY enthusiastic about the CPO ramp from Nvidia.”
Both near term and long term.
Yeah… I’m extremely bullish on CPO alongside Nvidia.
2026-06-10 09:33:54
🏷️ 20260610 本周精选
CPO scale out earlier than expected:
> Foxconn: est. units register upward and optical switches shipped early to $NVDA
CPO scale up timelines from $LITE Mizuho Technology Conference today:
“The company expects to start shipping Scale-Up optical products in the second half of 2027, with formal volume ramp-up in 2028”
SVP $NVDA networking: “We’re going to ramp up CPO second half of this year”. No delay indications.
I’m gonna go ahead and trust industry projections. Where they all reiterate faster timelines for scale out CPO H2 onward. And scale up CPO H2 2027 onward (with main growth happening 2028)
Over a questionable motive analyst firm that said $MU had no share of HBM4 Rubin (causing a selloff)
Where micron went out shortly later to into enter mass production. (Triple digit return shortly after)
I think people going long on temporary bridge architectures from this incorrect report won’t be too happy.
Appreciate the buying opportunity though.
2026-06-09 22:57:11
🏷️ 20260609 本周精选
I don’t quite think photonics from $AAOI to $LITE or $SIVE are disappearing anytime soon…
Just extremely volatile.
Anyway, curious what other people are buying today?
2026-06-09 21:54:06
🏷️ 20260609 本周精选
$EWY 32% IV into 58% IV expansion trade.
Into underlying SK Hynix / Samsung increase way ITM.
Was such a goated call? (~383% return)
Had way too many great ideas this year…
Still super proud of predicting South Korea index volatility increase due to memory concentration
2026-06-09 19:52:27
🏷️ 20260609 本周精选
Names like:
- $ASX
- Sumitomo Electric
- $JBL
- $VICR
- $GFS
- $AAOI
- AlChip
- $TSEM
- $FN
- Furukawa Electric
- $CLS
- $NBIS
- $NOK
- $AMKR
- $LITE
- $COHR
Off the top of my head.
So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range.
Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit?
(Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above)
I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns.
Still feels like many of these have room to go.
2026-06-09 16:37:12
🏷️ 20260609 本周精选
Given my recent popularity, might be a good time to put out a PSA.
Early followers have known this from the start:
- I don't do any paid promotions, paid marketing, or accept outside gifts.
But I appreciate all the recent outreach from companies!
If you see or engage with something online related to any type of payment, it's fabricated for engagement or a scammer.
The reason I don't want to is because I'm just posting on X for fun, and when money is involved it turns into a job (which I don't want it to feel like).
Also, well off personally so I've never felt influenced by anyone outside.
- The only "paid" thing I have is $1 subscriptions. That's all.
From the very start, I've never taken a single penny outside of X subscriptions/creator sharing. Which is why I say in my bio:
"I only use X, beware of imposters."
Anyone approaching you to share an external community or app is a scammer or imposter.
It's just very frustrating that people still fall for these impersonators.
- I'm just one person posting my thoughts online.
-> Not some institution or Illuminati team.
Quality of research is "high" because I have a technical background. And I genuinely do this as a hobby researching supply chain ideas.
There's not some "hidden" motive like a paid research group from Asia, it's just fun lol.
- I will always disclose positions if I have them or if I don't. Very open and transparent about it.
With Chinese equities I'm just posting research in hope it benefits people find conviction in critical companies in global supply chains.
I don't have any positions / any financial incentives (so I can be impartial), and haven't privately discussed with anyone about ideas I post beforehand.
Maybe it happens in Asia, but in the US it's highly illegal to be running groups or getting paid to post about companies.
I'm just posting my ideas for free without outside influence, in case others like the idea.
It probably seems odd, but I'm doing this as a hobby and for fulfillment of helping others.
- I'm staying anonymous so I can just freely post my ideas online.
Reason being is after I first posted negative things about $IREN, I would have a lot of personal IRL threats and harassment from dozens of accounts for me to stop.
Don't want any personal safety or people around me to be at risk for just publishing free research online.
Anyway, goal is to help out retail investors with free information synthesis; rather than just selling that directly to institutions.
I'm sure this positive sum model might anger people along the way (who have expensive paywalls, or financial incentives) that might feel threatened by information democratization.
But genuinely just sharing day-to-day thoughts for free.
Very surprised by recent popularity but it helps me distribute compelling ideas to more people.
And grateful Elon / X gave me an opportunity through X.
2026-06-09 15:21:45
🏷️ 20260609 本周精选
A massive catalyst arrived today with $SIVE:
Sivers announced $8.2M volume orders starting for Space applications (allspace).
This is for Beamforming ICs powering Space LEO/multi-orbit satellite communication.
The bigger implication is not the contract size:
But that Sivers now powers a larger defense prime in $YSS following their allspace acquisition (similar to $MRVL design-in with Celestial).
Which typically leads to more follow-up orders + volume contracts for Sivers, rather than just this specific contract.
Turns out Sivers is also a Space/Defense supply chain chokepoint (ahead of SpaceX IPO) on top of their photonics AI DC sector lasers...
This win aside, I'm expecting more volume ramps to be coming soon as well from their photonics side (looking at you Jabil + other pluggable makers)
2026-06-09 14:44:07
🏷️ 20260609 本周精选
Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B.
Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet.
Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand.
They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines.
Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest.
So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain.
Don’t currently have positions, just throwing out a thought for others to do research on.
Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rereating seems plausible?
(dont have any open positions, just a thought)
2026-06-09 13:42:08
🏷️ 20260609 本周精选
I do see a lot of comments about "harvesting the leeks".
And I hope my picks like LeaderDrive can help change that perspective around certain equities being good long term holds.
I think my only Chinese listed pick was Innolight last year, and that's up triple digits to ATH?
All my ideas come from a Western perspective (eg. institutional research from JP Morgan / Goldman Sachs I synthesize) and what US hyperscalers like $GOOGL or $MSFT require.
And I do consider about geopolitical tensions + game theory all the time, such as with $AXTI.
I think a foreigner's perspective brings a different kind of alpha here, and I'm excited to share how this plays out.
Regardless, I'm excited to see how adventures in Chinese equities go!
(also, I'm just 1 person posting thoughts throughout the day. there's a lot of conspiracy theories going around saying I'm some Chinese institution.
and yes, English is my primary language, i typo sometimes since I post 20+ a day on mobile mostly).
2026-06-09 09:58:57
🏷️ 20260609 本周精选
我怎么有种奇怪的感觉…
我的中国粉丝是不是都在等我喊新票啊 lol？
我看好的标的（比如 688017 绿的谐波）通常都是做长线，可不是只拿几天就走！
不过，这周我确实会再去挖几个新机会研究一下。
2026-06-09 09:25:40
🏷️ 20260609 本周精选
Can someone tell me what caused $INHD to go up 3660.95%?
2026-06-09 08:59:36
🏷️ 20260609 本周精选
Nah, Jim Cramer is like the 4th Newton’s Law.
Inverse Cramer just written into the laws of the universe.
I’ve been bullish on $RDDT since $140.
But Cramer was telling everyone to buy Reddit the entire time since Feb.
So it’s been flat.
2026-06-09 08:25:18
🏷️ 20260609 本周精选
For people out there citing Bank of America quotes now about selling.
Just remember:
They said $EWY/ KOSPI (SK Hynix/Samsung) was an extreme bubble back in March.
And blamed retail for the cause, then implied they should sell Korean memory equities: comparing it to the 2008 financial crisis, .com bubble, and Silver crash.
Then shortly after retail sold their longs, memory rallied to all time highs.
Institutions are not your friends.
Usually when an unusual flood of negative news, they need liquidity.
2026-06-08 22:01:34
🏷️ 20260608 本周精选
Still think this US list from $MRVL to $ARM to $INTC was goated.
Just as a recap if new followers were wondering what US equities I like.
Especially because I've been talking about international companies recently.
2026-06-08 19:48:25
🏷️ 20260608 本周精选
I think the implications of JP Morgan's disclosure of buying 5.25%+ of $SIVE is a lot greater than people think.
> $135M is pennies to US institutions. They can easily acquire 25% with their capital.
They're just constrained by the amount of float that's available from retail to buy.
> Signals to other institutions that other large institutions are buying up the float.
Which triggers more institutional interest.
> Given float is heavily shorted by Swedish Hedge Funds and random algorithmic ones.
If large US institutions like JP Morgan are starting to buying the float, it's a blaring signal to start and cover.
Of course, most of all, this is validating thesis of giving ideas to retail first to frontrun the institutions + the next CPO supercycle.
2026-06-08 18:39:40
🏷️ 20260608 本周精选
All the outlets in China are just as confused as I am about 300376.
Just an FYI, these are all follower recommended stock ideas, not mine.
I’m just compiling all the shoutouts into a list of 30+ names related/adjacent to 800v DC exposure.
2026-06-08 15:31:50
🏷️ 20260608 本周精选
Surprised $SIVE is only up 3.36% off the news JP Morgan (institutional) bought 5%+ ownership of Sivers.
Just in the last month alone.
First major signal of major institutional buying of the float for Sivers.
2026-06-08 14:51:10
🏷️ 20260608 本周精选
????
大家都知道这只是个众包名单吧？
300376怎么涨了20%啊哈哈
2026-06-08 14:22:58
🏷️ 20260608 本周精选
Okay chat, here's your compiled list chat of your favorite 800V DC related ideas.
- $IFNNY - $115.8B
- $ON - $46.2B
- Lite-On (2301) - $16.03B
- 6504.T - $14.1B
- $VICR - $12.8B
- $LFUS - $11.57B
- http://2577.HK - $8.34B
- $VSH - $7.86B
- $ENPH - $7.36B
- $NVTS - $5.77B
- $POWI - $4.30B
- $BDC - $4.18B
- $EOSE - $3.86B
- $SEDG - $3.82B
- $AEHR - $3.1B
- 6890.T - $2.66B
- $WOLF - $2.16B
- $CWR.L - $1.75B
- $AMSC - $1.68B
- http://300376.SZ - $1.68B
- $XFAB - $1.54B
- $AOSL - $1.25B
- $HYLN - $1.23B
- $FCEL - $835M
- $IQE.L - $780M
- $ASYS - $276M
- $RELL - $239M
- 6844.T - $222M
- 4973.T - $207M
- $PAY.BR - $189M
- 6616.T - $186M
- 6882.T - $124M
- $IPWR - $96m
Also included some adjacent ones you all mentioned like $FCEL or $EOSE anyway, tho idk it's great exposure. Ignored the clearer irrelevant stuff like $POET that people mentioned tho.
There's like 500 comments, but I guess X limits everything I can see.
We'll see how your highest conviction ideas do.
2026-06-08 13:11:38
🏷️ 20260608 本周精选
I do think LeaderDrive (688017) is China's standout component leader in the robotics sector.
I've done a lot of research on other robotics picks / $TSLA Optimus suppliers, but LeaderDrive is extremely unique.
Compared to others doing lower margin assembly, or lower value components, with higher design out risk.
Western institutions like Goldman Sachs Research flags LeaderDrive many times:
-> As a company with high technology barriers (eg. harmonic reduction gear).
-> and likely capturing high component value costs like planetary roller screws of each humanoid produced.
In simpler terms with LeaderDrive, you cover:
- Many different components, with high barrier to entry
- High BOM of each humanoid made, if you combine them together
- Mass production capability at low cost.
For each humanoid made.
Please do your research on this topic before making your own decision; but long-term if you believe in humanoid sector growth: I think LeaderDrive (688017) is very compelling.
Risk is mainly coming from other emerging Chinese companies taking over market share of different individual components.
As well as mass-production margins decreasing over time; as seen with $VPG going from $750 (for early stage pre-production) -> $150 for sensors.
But in general, I don't believe companies outside China like Harmonic Drive (6324) can achieve the same costs for mass production, which is why $TSLA Optimus is creating extensive supply chains from China.
So we'll likely see supply chains be bifurcated with cheap mass production $15k-20K humanoids from Chinese supply chains. And higher cost humanoids from Western supply chains.
Again if you look at current P/E ratios and say it's high; a lot of it is misunderstanding comes from not looking at forward growth:
Nothing has been mass produced yet. AGIbot has recently achieved 10k units produced back in March.
But in the next 3-5 years, the TAM of the humanoid/robotics sector forecasted by Elon Musk and others very large, if he's expecting millions of humanoids to be produced a year.
So my expectation is the current $10.65B MC would look very tiny in hindsight of LeaderDrive's market capture of the overall robotics market.
So I don't believe thesis like this should be measured in short term timeframes (or that people should actively trade names like these).
Moreso a long term investment idea about how this company could capture a material part of the overall humanoid market that exponentially grows over the next few years.
2026-06-08 09:39:36
🏷️ 20260608 本周精选
I appreciate the objective coverage from 中国证券报 (China Securities Journal) on my LeaderDrive (688017) analysis!
On the article:
“A single tweet ignites the leading robotics stock, who exactly is the "White-Haired God of Stocks" Serenity?”
Supply chains are global, and my research shows that Chinese companies like 688017 hold a dominant position over low-cost, mass production as humanoids scale up.
Just a heads up: I do believe Leaderdrive’s position is very undervalued long term (next few years), if you weigh component costs vs. current customers vs. robotics TAM.
But I don’t control any near term volatility, especially with macro climates.
I’m flattered regardless by the institutional coverage of my track record of picking longs like $MRVL and my investment framework.
As well as the recent support from the Chinese community.
2026-06-07 21:10:28
🏷️ 20260607 今日关注
哇？我的粉丝数竟然突破70万了……而且在过去的短短3天里，我又额外收获了5000名订阅者。
真的非常感谢大家。
尤其要特别感谢最近给予我巨大支持的中文社区！
2026-06-07 20:45:57
🏷️ 20260607 今日关注
On top: $NVDA CEO also called out Silicon Photonics (optical networking) with memory.
Stating that Nvidia would require “supply volumes beyond imagination”.
What a bullish read through on the SiPH supply chain from $SIVE (now upstream Nvidia ecosystem) to $SOI
2026-06-07 19:28:25
🏷️ 20260607 今日关注
Oh look… $NVDA CEO warned memory shortage is expected to persist for many years, due to massive scaling demand of AI infrastructure.
With further announcements tomorrow.
$MU and $EWY (Samsung/SK Hynix) operating profit projections aren’t looking too crazy anymore?
2026-06-07 18:39:16
🏷️ 20260607 今日关注
Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics.
Best example is current Neoclouds landscape:
$IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang)
While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.).
On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs.
It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics.
If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion.
But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term)
With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC.
Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay.
With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags.
With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution.
There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.
2026-06-07 16:23:59
🏷️ 20260607 今日关注
Well, looks like it’s time to do some research on how to profit off of Cuba’s economic collapse.
Following US sanctions last month.
Anyone got ideas?
2026-06-07 11:37:40
🏷️ 20260607 今日关注
I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection:
It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences?
If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others.
Lot of it is guessing on unstructured relationships then seeing if it's right or not down the line.
$RPI is the perfect example:
- Nobody really thought of Raspberry Pis for AI growth. Mainly people bought one or two just for class + education + hobbyist.
- After OpenClaw, just noticed all my friends and people just buying Apple Mac Minis / RPIs for AI applications.
- Found validation of that trend online with lot of people sharing video tutorials on AI orchestration with RPI.
- AI was their ideal perfect growth vector, did some modeling, and thought it was compelling.
Earnings comes out and I was right.
Everyone in media was calling it a meme stock because there's nothing online that shows revenue growth from AI (was 14% forecasted revenue growth, turned out to be 58%, my projection was around 55%).
So it was a mix of guessing next industry trend (AI using lightweight hardware instead of GPU clusters), real life trends, then revenue forecasting off my guess.
For stuff like $AXTI:
- Everyone called it a joke when I bought at ~$12. LLMs would hallucinate and say "hyperscalers/govs would have known about this by now and fixed this vulnerability with InP substrates"
- Or would conflate very nuanced parts of InP substrate stack, where there's multiple different chokepoints in upstream processing.
- So part of this was just discretionary based on what I've seen over InP substrate breakdowns, industry trends, etc.
- Then also guessing the major supercycle was photonics (this was before everyone caught onto $LITE, and others). Or before you saw the $141B TAM projections from GS.
- AXT owned 40% of InP supply chain, without them the supply chain just gets cripped).
- All the "analysts" were forecasting steady InP substrate growth, few hundred million TAM, etc. or export controls.
- Everyone kept trying to say $AXTI was overvalued based on TAM estimates. But if it's a few hundred million TAM you just think that's a joke and go into game theory over allocations.
- Then I just had to guess, how much would this be worth if it were a NAND style bottleneck, what MC could it reach based on control, how much would hyperscalers price it as, etc.
A lot of the current research outputs from Goldman Sachs, or earnings reports from the Epiwafer companies, were confirmed after I published my piece on AXT. If you did research back then, lot of the same material /framing wouldn't have come up.
With stuff like $XFAB as you're seeing now, a lot of it is just pure guessing:
- Not really any CPO materials, how much their MTP process makes in revenue, etc. Everyone online keeps saying they're not a photonics player.
- But if you go through ASE docs or Gov websites, they all kinda cite XFAB as a major emerging player here.
- $NVDA also evaluating them right now (maybe it's successful who knows).
- No clear revenue around this area because their main silicon photonics process is still precommercial, but if you guess it's trying to create a EU supply chain to compete with $TSEM, once pre-commercial shifts to commercial, maybe similar but less volume contracts?
- Then just seeing updates over the next few months to see if anything confirms this thesis guess.
_
I think a lot of information discovery still can be done with LLMs I'm seeing online. But it's also really hard to make a bunch of unstructured inferences based on unrelated material or even just trends you're seeing in real life.
So probably better to just do what's standard, eg. do valuation forecasting based on current numbers
Stuff like $AAOI, if they're projecting $471m/M h1 2027 and you see MC at $12B, probably undervalued might be a good idea to go long for next years.
Stuff like Samsung Electronics is easier, see what people are modeling for operating profits for 2027, 2028 then just seeing if it's undervalued or not at current levels.
Maybe something harder is $JBL. I haven't really seen any great volume numbers around 1.6T LRO, but you can just make a guess on how popular that might be then project how that might impact current MCs.
Or picking just good names everyone kinda agrees like $TSM, $INTC, $MRVL is also solid.
So a lot of things is just building up your life skills then applying that to markets. I don't think it's that can be taught with courses and stuff.
Of course, much of what I'm doing is just high conviction inference based on unconnected parts. Could always be wrong.
2026-06-07 10:07:23
🏷️ 20260607 今日关注
Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce):
SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers
Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers
Idk about $INTC 2030 reports, we’ll see.
$TSM CoPoS was 2-3Y was correct though from recent TSM chairman comments. Innolux was interesting beneficiary. $SHMD should be too off TSM but financials were pretty toxic.
Same players should appear multiple times, eg innolux + SKC.
Also applies to $LPK and upstream equipment seller around these ramps.
2026-06-06 20:22:51
🏷️ 20260606 今日关注
If you’re curious:
$4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions!
All of this is going to dog rescues, will be doing large donations later!
It’s ~$600 / dog rescued, so it scales proportionally with Serenity fan count!
I also believe in making all my profits off $SIVE to $AAOI with stocks in the market, not off followers.
Especially if I’m a good enough investor.
So never felt the need to have high paywalls or do paid ads. (I’d do this anyway even if it weren’t monetized).
I’m glad I can help things I care about just by posting ideas throughout the day for fun.
And I’ve seen a lot of followers recently donate to their local shelters in my name.
So genuinely thank you all for that, makes me happy.
2026-06-06 18:46:59
🏷️ 20260606 今日关注
Apparently I’m all over Chinese news now?
I just published some research on LeaderDrive (688017) and their role in humanoid supply chains.
Looks like China’s robotics stock sector went up and 688017 hit 20% limit up?
I appreciate they called me “Overseas God”.
2026-06-06 16:37:22
🏷️ 20260606 今日关注
Okay... just some more weekend shower thoughts about $XFAB.
I still feel like it could be the next $TSEM, just early stage at a $1.4B MC?
They kinda leapfrogged current gens (which $TSEM are getting volume from) to compete for H2 2027 CPO scale up inflection point ($ASX docs cite Xfab (aka. photonixFAB) as focusing on CPO)
By building out some black magic MTP (transfer printing) architecture for lasers w/ other stuff like TFLN.
Basically next-gen integration IP, they're still behind on yields, sure.
But $NVDA evaluating it for transceivers/switches to see if it can volume ramp. That $NOK sets the specifications/assembly for. (nvidia invested in nokia for this these switches/networking too btw).
And if their MTP supply chain works... (eg. with Smartphotonics providing lasers, EU players doing assembly).
It basically volume ramps with $NVDA just like why Nvidia signed long term agreements with $TSEM?
Downside risk?
Already below replacement book value, can always go lower yeah, but typically to a certain point.
Maybe more CHIPS act subsidies next few months from chips act 2. If it doesn't go well there's SiC (152% Y/Y Growth, 195% Y/Y SiC wafer shipment growth)/GaN power semi upside.
Europeans /LLMs will say "oh evaluations doesn't mean it's a future contract!".
This is kinda different since the European Union is behind this effort and $XFAB for soverign photonic supply chains.
Not your typical company + hyperscaler evaluation, since $NVDA wants to be nice to Europe's regulators. They'd prob be pissed if nvidia just stayed in US/Taiwan/China.
So if they can make this MTP black magic work with mass production, feels almost for sure nvidia/nokia volume ramp on some tiny $1.4B silicon photonics foundry or at least throw them a bone with smaller contracts.
In terms of timelines, maybe just a months early since it volume ramps H2 2027/H1 2028 (which happens to be in line with CPO scale up timelines)...
Or just unknown because they named their project something stupid like photonixfab?
Like XFAB Photonics would have been better? so institutions/screeners can connect the dots when looking at CPO silicon photonic foundry players?
Automotive should also coming out of a slump medium term, sped up by self-driving (TSM Chairmain comments yesterday said ai automotive was TSM's growth vector alongside robotics). So their core business also should pick up speed too medium term.
Obviously markets/europeans want a "Nvidia signs $2B+ contract, XFab volume ramping 2027!"
But by then it will be a $9B+ company and you miss out on all the upside. And especially since everyone analyst/institution is blind to volume expectations for these....
Normally don't invest in companies in evaluation stages, but this just seems very de-risked by EU sovereignty + Gov backing, and you have Nvidia + Nokia there for volumes if they can make the IP work.
I think markets are probably missing something here... there's almost 0 value being assigned to being CPO exposure in Europe as their long term upside.
2026-06-06 12:40:35
🏷️ 20260606 今日关注
How are all you regards on $RDDT down -99% after 2 red days?
Is it that hard just to hold indiviudal stocks like $AAOI or $MRVL that are already high-beta?
You can be right directionally, but wrong on short-term timing.
One extra week or month makes a huge difference.
2026-06-06 09:55:51
🏷️ 20260606 今日关注
真是让我受宠若惊，围绕着我的 X（推特）帖子居然建立起了一个完整的微型经济圈？
-> 追踪我做多股票的网站 -> Github 项目 -> 新闻媒体 -> 用 AI 直接搬运我内容的 X 大 V (网红) -> 迷因币/土狗币（我不支持，但你们开心就好） -> 帖子倒卖者
我的所有内容都是免费发布的。之后衍生出的任何东西都是公开信息！
所以，如果有人打算收费，希望他们至少能在原有基础上提供一些额外的价值！
2026-06-06 07:59:23
🏷️ 20260606 今日关注
Sigh.
I keep telling retail + Swedish Hedge Funds how important $SIVE is to CPO, but people don’t listen.
Enough retail holders got shaken off, and now JP Morgan managed to buy up a massive stake in Sivers (purely institutional).
JP Morgan went from .4% ownership last month to 5%+ ownership this month…
2026-06-05 23:58:58
🏷️ 20260605 今日关注
Fun times with market corrections.
Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%.
Funny to see media always trying to explain like:
"Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks "
Broadcom projected insatiable demand into 2028, just made up narratives. Nothing's changed the AI buildout aside from increasing capex.
Main material thing was rate hike probabilities increase.
But you have random ones like these few times a year into ATHs.
Personally wouldn't try and trade fed decision probabilities and stay long on current company projections (eg. $AAOI $471m h1 2027)
2026-06-05 23:15:06
🏷️ 20260605 今日关注
Xintec (3374) also looks like an interesting idea (TSMC packaging/test subsidary).
MC is at ~ $2.18B.
$TSM COUPE mass production starts this half, H2 2026. and... they have plans for "Aggressively pursuing CPO opportunities with subsidiaries Xintec".
This is just very high-level, not too much public figures on volumes flowing to Xintec in COUPE.
But this is just a asymmetrical guess on $TSM wanting to vertically integrate as much as possible and volume flowing down to their own subidary.
Lot of the Taiwan CPO stocks like Foci, MSSCorp, Shunsin (foxconn advanced packaging/test), and co. are gradually being repriced... (disclosure: have exposure to everything above).
But generally, architectural shift is going to be pretty sudden, and will show up in their balance sheets soon.
Especially $TSM related companies (Xintec looks more compelling than VisEra, at least for this next few months). Foci I've already covered for FAU.
2026-06-05 22:25:29
🏷️ 20260605 今日关注
$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI.
Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there.
Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air.
To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary.
Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser.
(Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth)
Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all.
So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater).
But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now).
Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too.
Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE.
Just a matter of time before volume ramps.
2026-06-05 19:37:34
🏷️ 20260605 今日关注
Apparently my Chinese name is “白毛股神”
Which translates to “White Hair Stock God” in English.
I’ll gladly accept it.
2026-06-05 17:10:16
🏷️ 20260605 今日关注
$RPI: $283 -> $983, up 247% from my thesis post.
Quote: Strong AI-related demand was expected to result in core profit "significantly ahead" of market expectations.
Turns out European Media’s favorite “memestock” with “no fundamentals” back in Feb.
Was actually was backed by revenue growth from AI?
2026-06-05 10:31:16
🏷️ 20260605 今日关注
专门写给我的中文读者：
绿的谐波（LeaderDrive，688017，577.3亿人民币）是我在布局人形机器人赛道时最青睐的中国上市标的。
他们的业务涵盖：
谐波减速器（据称占有超过60%的国内市场份额，以及1800多家全球客户）
人形机器人旋转关节减速器
直线执行器
电机/关节，以及许多其他核心零部件。
并且他们正在进军行星滚柱丝杠（planetary roller screws）领域。
目前占据着绝对的主导地位：超过60%的国内市场份额以及1800多家全球客户。
主要客户包括优傲机器人（Universal Robots）、优必选（UBTech）、智元机器人（Agibot），而特斯拉（Tesla）、Figure 以及绝大多数其他人形机器人研发商都很可能是他们的潜在客户。
如果你看一下这些零部件的 BOM（物料清单），粗略估计它们占到了每台研发出的人形机器人的 4-15%，随着他们进军更多细分领域，这个比例可能还会更高。
我认为没有人能对这类公司进行精确的财务建模，其前景更多取决于未来几年内会有多少人形机器人实现量产。
这其实是对一家能够在每台生产出的人形机器人中占据可观份额的公司，进行的一种方向性做多（directional long）。
在可扩展的规模化量产方面，中国显然是该领域的领导者，许多西方玩家无法将成本降到绿的谐波那样的水平。
随着我们向实体人工智能（physical AI）的规模化迈进，我极其看好机器人这个赛道。
2026-06-05 08:46:54
🏷️ 20260605 今日关注
$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28.
Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute?
There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers…
Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration.
I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T.
So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing…
Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028.
Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time?
Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected…
Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.
2026-06-05 08:03:15
🏷️ 20260605 今日关注
Anthropic: “Urges Global Pause in AI Development”
Translation: “please let us take the lead, stop building!”
Regardless, statements like this encourage every Country to start investing in AI.
Implications are profound from fields of medicine, math, and basically everything.
2026-06-04 23:08:52
🏷️ 20260604 今日关注
$RDDT was driving me insane.
> massive earnings beat > just printing FCF since they’re too profitable > 69% Y/Y revenue growth. > biggest moat against AI vibe coding from network effect > 91.5% gross margin.
Was just flat for months. Glad to see it getting more attention.
2026-06-04 21:04:25
🏷️ 20260604 今日关注
Found this news funny about a new Swedish Hedge fund:
Origo’s fund has lost substantial money shorting $SIVE.
“The loss is one of the biggest this year"
Many of these Swedish hedge funds are now heavily underwater.
Just as an accidental byproduct of $SIVE being a core part of the CPO supercycle.
Starting to make more sense why there’s a lot of false news being published.
Especially if they’re facing infinite losses?
2026-06-04 17:25:39
🏷️ 20260604 今日关注
This timeline keeps getting more and more unreal…
$NVDA Jensen Huang to meet Faker (League of Legends)
I did talk with Jensen few years back about PUBG and GPU shortages for mining.
And he was enthusiastic about ideas for cross-platform gaming + getting enough allocation to gamers.
Fast forward to now, feels like Nvidia kinda ignored gamers… for AI, which is understandable.
So this is a nice symbolic message for a return to Nvidia’s roots.
2026-06-04 16:34:20
🏷️ 20260604 今日关注
LOL. I’m honestly laughing there’s new media articles for each one of my X posts.
I appreciate any objective coverage though since it helps combat a lot of the disinformation online.
Am I that popular now?
2026-06-04 15:15:47
🏷️ 20260604 今日关注
$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year.
Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances.
Here’s the reason why:
- CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings.
Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts.
-> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck
$SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck?
Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well).
Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing.
Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck.
$SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers)
- $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO.
$NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors)
$AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well.
However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence)
Are all likely designed around $SIVE.
Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently)
If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers.
Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source.
$SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1):
If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO…
That makes them a chokepoint.
Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference).
So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note)
This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years.
All of this should play out next year.
And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.
2026-06-04 12:24:55
🏷️ 20260604 今日关注
Pinned: I now am the #1 most subscribed to account on the entire X platform!
After overtaking Elon Musk today.
Thank you everyone for helping me achieve my goal.
2026-06-04 11:39:54
🏷️ 20260604 今日关注
Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher.
Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030.
Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings.
“Aggregate capex est. $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031.”
And it flows upward to these tiny chokepoints like $SIVE for CPO lasers/ $SOI for Silicon Photonics substrates. Leaderdrive/Harmonic for Humanoids components.
And so on…
Ai names don’t move in a straight line up, but is just the beginning of the next Industrial Revolution as we move from R&D/compute buildout into commercialization from Agents -> Physical AI -> discovery.
2026-06-04 10:00:04
🏷️ 20260604 今日关注
Well, looks like it’s that time of the year again for $COIN, $HOOD, $CRCL and co.
So much for a “friendly administration” and “strategic reserve” if they’re trying to ram through Bank Lobbied Clarity Act bills…
To ban any form of innovation or competition against banks, with things like yields.
And nuking liquidity as they go (but strengthens the USD)
Valuations do seem compelling again if you’re swing trading.
2026-06-04 07:56:25
🏷️ 20260604 今日关注
Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript
- Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop)
Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects?
- “So as the TPUs continue to accelerate, there’ll be pressure overall on margins. But the connectivity side, the AI networking side of the business has very rich margins”
“Demand for … networking is simply insatiable”
Also very positive read through as well for the $LITE and the other players. But for TPU margins it goes down at scale, which is understandable.
- “they are placing orders in fairly huge demand, which basically gives us a lot more visibility.. runs all the way to 2028 right now”
positive read through on overall AI demand since it’s 2026 now… and orders are out in 2028
- The initial order for 1 gigawatt, which includes XPUs and our networking has been received and will start Delivery in the second half of 2027. for our other two customers, we expect shipments to begin late 2026 and accelerate into 2027.
$META custom AI program h2 2027 timelines
- “Our revenue, our content per gigawatt will increase. you start putting a lot, you start putting embedding CPU cores into the same XPUs and making those chips basically multi die with lots of hvm.”
Just for the GW modelers.
- “For OpenAI we have delivered silicon and we are on track for production late 2026”
OpenAI custom program timeline
- “If you ask about 27 or 28 that will continue to grow. We expect in fact 28 to be a substantial growth from what we are forecasting in 27.”
More about the demand ramp, go brrr
- “Google, that we expect a diversity of sources from them”
Mediatek (2454) primary beneficary, maybe $MRVL. Already expected though Google doesn’t sole source so they don’t get bottlenecked.
There’s quite a lot of AI demand visibility way until 2028, which is bullish on the AI sector as a whole. Regardless, Broadcom ends the week +0% lol.
TLDR: Strongly bullish AI demand, especially networking. Stocks don’t move in a straight line up, but demand curves 2026-> 2027 -> 2028.
2026-06-03 22:14:28
🏷️ 20260603 今日关注
EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released.
Great news: Photonics is now confirmed to be the new structural addition to EU policy.
This is thematically bullish for the EU photonics sector.
Thematically:
"This new component of the Chips for Europe Initiative supports the development of photonic integrated circuits and associated technologies"
"building and strengthening advanced design, prototyping, and industrial deployment capacities for photonic integrated circuit technologies and other photonic technologies across the Union"
"extend the Union’s design capabilities, including in photonics"
"strengthen existing and develop new pilot lines and open-access semiconductor manufacturing facilities for the prototyping and production of photonic integrated circuits and associated photonic technologies
"develop and maintain design libraries and design automation tools for photonic integrated circuits, associated photonic technologies"
===
More specifically policy specifically focuses on
-> co-packaged optics for AI data centres (CPO/interconnects focus is bullish read through for $SIVE)
-> “Silicon photonics … applications in high-bandwidth data-centre interconnects…”
-> Capabilities in production technologies including co-packaging and heterogeneous integration with electronic chips, manufacturing equipment, and materials platforms for photonic integrated circuits shall be strengthened ( $XFAB)
-> $SOI directly mentioned in impact analysis regarding structural strengths of the EU. "The EU has a relatively strong global position in SOI wafers, with Soitec and Siltronic being notable players"
-> $XFAB also directly mentioned in impact analysis, as part of creating the current funding framework.
Obviously structurally positive for $XFAB since they're literally leading the European Silicon Photonics Value chain and listed in First of a Kind (FOAK) category.
Initial interpretation, this is heavily positive for EU photonics leaders that go inside AI DCs as part of EU Policy. I'm expecting optical players broadly to get a tailwind from this framework.
TLDR: EU photonics structurally go brrr long term. Most positive confirmation is that photonics is structurally a part of European Union policy now.
We'll likely see the individual photonics names come out after this release, within 3-15 months (typically in the middle somewhere). Markets are forward looking in general.
2026-06-03 19:50:32
🏷️ 20260603 今日关注
The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing:
$POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants
> $XFAB: $1.7B MC ->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT -> Below replacement P/B value -> $NVDA, $NOK direct eval of their pre-commercial SiPH foundry, volume ramping 2027/2028 -> $XFAB leading high-volume scaling of Europe's photonic supply chains as the foundry, with IMEC/CEA-Leti, Ligentec, Smart photonics, PHIX Photonics, Luceda Photonics, and Europe's photonic players under it.
-> Leading customers like $NVTS, $POWI, Lite-On -> US from Dpt. of Commerce: "the only high-volume SiC foundry in the U.S."
2026-06-03 19:00:50
🏷️ 20260603 今日关注
Wow, only 1K more subscribers until I overtake Elon Musk!
Right now I’m at 46K. Elon is at 47K.
Then I’ll hold the crown of the #1 most subscribed to person on the entire X platform?
What a fun timeline.
2026-06-03 18:17:16
🏷️ 20260603 今日关注
Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well.
I wrote a thesis last year on the Neocloud sector becoming a major theme.
And then picked the King.
-> Nebius is #1 out of the entire sector from $IREN to $CRWV.
$84 -> $260.
Thesis validated by markets.
2026-06-03 15:50:21
🏷️ 20260603 今日关注
GUESS WHAT ANON?
After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion.
$SIVE is now the laser source for likely:
The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners.
From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink CPO).
This is why I call $SIVE a structural photonics laser chokepoint over CPO and now Nvidia ecosystem supply chains.
-> Celestial was likely a direct customer to Sivers, not through Poet. (2023 investor presentation mapping), then bought by Marvell. -> Lightmatter was also listed there as a customer in 2023 investor presentation deck mapping.
And… Guess what else?
Then they all happen to use GlobalFoundries.
Which Sivers is now the GFS silicon photonics foundry-level reference laser (also new news yesterday).
Supply chain mapping all starting to make sense now anon?
Sivers is also likely now the primary laser source for Ayar after they removed Macom/Lumentum their laser supply chain section (now just gfs/sivers), as a cherry on top.
Algorithms completely miss this type of image based mapping.
After this announcement, I personally think current valuations are very undervalued:
Given Sivers now holds one of the most important structural laser chokepoint over Nvidia CPO NVLink ecosystem supply chains.
2026-06-03 14:51:12
🏷️ 20260603 今日关注
Wow… new extremely transformative news got released today.
Making a certain photonics company:
The effective upstream laser chokepoint for $NVDA NVLink fusion CPO ecosystem.
With their lasers now in Nvidia’s optical infrastructure supply chains.
Can anyone guess the name?
2026-06-03 13:37:07
🏷️ 20260603 今日关注
Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd.
This includes, CHIPS ACT 2.0, which is expected to prioritize photonics.
Both $XFAB and $SIVE are highlighted in the Industry Policy Blueprints, which guides EU legislation.
This proposes sovereign backing with €30–500 million financing facilities per company and revenue demand incentivizes.
To bridge early European companies to volume production.
I personally expect my two thesis ideas to be large beneficiaries:
$XFAB, given they're leading Europe's SiPH value chain, with Nokia and Nvidia evaluating them for photonics HVM.
and $SIVE as Europe's leader for lasers in AI datacenters, scaling lasers to mass production in 2027.
More details will be announced today, but this is a structural tailwind to photonics critical to Western and especially EU supply chains.
2026-06-03 10:41:50
🏷️ 20260603 今日关注
Is majority of the next generation stuck in the permanent underclass?
> Missed out on gaining control of AI through ownership of infra/compute today
> Majority of jobs getting replaced by AI
> Housing more expensive
> Inflation makes cost of living go brrr.
Gg?
2026-06-03 09:18:54
🏷️ 20260603 今日关注
There we go.
My CPO longs in Taiwan are finally starting to take off today.
Shunsin +10% Foci +10% Xintec +10%
Just waiting on Win Semi, Msscorp, and Nextronics to catch up.
2026-06-03 07:51:15
🏷️ 20260603 今日关注
Good times with $AEHR, it’s now ~$3.5B MC.
Haven’t mentioned it as much since there’s nothing too new.
Just waiting on volume orders for these types of players like $LPK, and others.
2026-06-03 04:54:26
🏷️ 20260603 今日关注
Okay yeah should have trusted Jensen more on $MRVL after what he did with $NBIS.
He actually gave a $1T price target this time with Marvell.
Marvell up 35% with one remark…
2026-06-02 22:19:41
🏷️ 20260602 本周精选
$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables.
My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW.
Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today.
Is just one step of the way.
2026-06-02 21:17:12
🏷️ 20260602 本周精选
Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM.
Just sub <$2B MC.
You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB)
While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex.
While leading the Europe’s effort to build a photonics supply chain.
Feels like that alone would justify valuations… but you get the power semi SiC/GaN operations for free too and all its assets.
CHIPS act 2 is coming out tomorrow, and $XFAB is listed in the photonics blueprints.
Did I miss something?
Or did markets miss something?
2026-06-02 15:55:22
🏷️ 20260602 本周精选
DID YOU LISTEN ANON?
Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration.
$SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform.
For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH.
This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history.
As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route.
I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue.
To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.
2026-06-02 15:00:32
🏷️ 20260602 本周精选
The most consequential event of an entire company’s history.
Got released today with a photonics player.
Making them the functional standard laser for CPO, Pluggables, and SiPH.
For companies like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, to $MRVL using the foundry.
Does anyone know the name?
2026-06-02 12:50:41
🏷️ 20260602 本周精选
$NVDA Jensen Huang:
“ $MRVL the next $1T company ladies and gentlemen “.
Marvell is currently trading at $191B.
I have positions in Marvell… but how much faith do we have in Jensen for the 5x?
2026-06-02 09:41:08
🏷️ 20260602 本周精选
Just a heads up, I've uncovered a bot farm with dozens of accounts used to spread disinformation about $SIVE in the past few days.
This illegal campaign likely stems geographically from Asia.
As these accounts were used to do marketing for the same Asian projects like Alchemy Pay. Or bought brand new bought X accounts.
All of which have no activity, but have an abrupt shift in timeline to repeating false claims about selling $SIVE positions and telling others to sell.
With some getting caught using AI prompts to create a negative reply.
This will be passed along to the SEC for investigation given there's certain traceability logs available.
While the regulators investigate, maybe not a good idea follow along false bot farm advice.
2026-06-02 07:51:46
🏷️ 20260602 本周精选
I never thought I’d see the day where $GOOGL needs to raise $80b for AI capex…
Then Warren Buffet’s $BRK.A is funding the hyperscaler AI buildout.
- $40B ATM, $30B offerings, Berkshire $10B
Upstream ecosystem from $LITE to $AVGO to Mediatek to $TSM to $MU should go brrr.
Not sure if the Google holders are though, given this massive capex scale isn’t as funded by FCF.
2026-06-02 04:27:55
🏷️ 20260602 本周精选
Macron announces that $NBIS invests €8B to build out AI Cloud Infrastructure in France.
This was my favorite comment:
“What about the Water”
2026-06-02 04:01:50
🏷️ 20260602 本周精选
-> IP acquisition -> Just waiting for CPO to take off
$SIVE is a laser chokepoint for photonics and are publicly validated by:
$GFS (1 of 2 public laser suppliers with $LITE for CPO per presentation)
$JBL (“Relatively dramatic moat” for pluggables built with Sivers)
CHIPS ACT for the overall company
For highest visibility:
-> Ayar is the largest CPO player that primary sources $SIVE and are expected to ramp in 2027.
-> $POET is another near term CPO volume player that’s heavily visible with Sivers.
For OSINT mapping:
$MRVL Celestial (direct, not through Poet), Lightmatter, Lightelligence, were all high confidence customers of Sivers.
$SIVE is also developing/qualifying with multiple more optical transceiver players following Jabil.
It feels like they’re going to end up everywhere.
I’m not sure people realize how special that many qualifications is coming from a <$2B MC laser company is… right before 2027 volume ramp.
Especially while all the other laser companies trade at $15B-$70B valuations.
Just need pluggables to bridge revenue gap into H2 2027 (CPO Scale up)
Then making every laser they sell more valuable following the $LITE playbook, to capture more TAM of both markets.
In the overarching optical $141B TAM (10x) in the next 1 1/2 years. (Goldman Sachs)
and CPO TAM going from 0 to $81B in the next 1 1/2 years.
So, easily multiply revenue opportunity overnight doing IP acquisition downstream.
It’s more of just a waiting game, I think $SIVE is very undervalued relative to forward revenue potential.
If it were a private Silicon Valley startup it would probably be worth $4-6B today.
Just needs to get listed on NASDAQ for premiums to bridge that gap.
2026-06-02 01:22:45
🏷️ 20260602 本周精选
I did say $AAOI was my favorite US optical long...
+20.1% today.
If you want the next $SNDK, you're looking at it.
I think H1 entering H2 2027 will likely be that massive inflection point for photonics players.
We're just a tad early entering H2 2026 while everyone is building up capacity.
Just a general rule of thumb in general if your name isnt space or quantum, markets are forward looking round 8 months.
That revenue ramp inflection point is coming, more of a matter of when, waiting for it, and embracing volatility in the meantime.
2026-06-02 00:34:42
🏷️ 20260602 本周精选
$ARM is just ridiculous.
$134 straight to $413 in just 2 1/2 months.
Should have went options, would have been up thousands of percent instead of only 3x.
最后更新：2026-08-04T07:44:59.956Z