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📅 20260605 推文存档
📊 共 55 条推文
@aleabitoreddit
2026-06-05 23:58:58
Fun times with market corrections.
Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%.
Funny to see media always trying to explain like:
"Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks "
Broadcom projected insatiable demand into 2028, just made up narratives. Nothing's changed the AI buildout aside from increasing capex.
Main material thing was rate hike probabilities increase.
But you have random ones like these few times a year into ATHs.
Personally wouldn't try and trade fed decision probabilities and stay long on current company projections (eg. $AAOI $471m h1 2027)
2026-06-05 23:15:06
Xintec (3374) also looks like an interesting idea (TSMC packaging/test subsidary).
MC is at ~ $2.18B.
$TSM COUPE mass production starts this half, H2 2026. and... they have plans for "Aggressively pursuing CPO opportunities with subsidiaries Xintec".
This is just very high-level, not too much public figures on volumes flowing to Xintec in COUPE.
But this is just a asymmetrical guess on $TSM wanting to vertically integrate as much as possible and volume flowing down to their own subidary.
Lot of the Taiwan CPO stocks like Foci, MSSCorp, Shunsin (foxconn advanced packaging/test), and co. are gradually being repriced... (disclosure: have exposure to everything above).
But generally, architectural shift is going to be pretty sudden, and will show up in their balance sheets soon.
Especially $TSM related companies (Xintec looks more compelling than VisEra, at least for this next few months). Foci I've already covered for FAU.
2026-06-05 22:25:29
$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI.
Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there.
Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air.
To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary.
Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser.
(Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth)
Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all.
So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater).
But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now).
Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too.
Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE.
Just a matter of time before volume ramps.
2026-06-05 19:37:34
Apparently my Chinese name is “白毛股神”
Which translates to “White Hair Stock God” in English.
I’ll gladly accept it.
2026-06-05 17:10:16
$RPI: $283 -> $983, up 247% from my thesis post.
Quote: Strong AI-related demand was expected to result in core profit "significantly ahead" of market expectations.
Turns out European Media’s favorite “memestock” with “no fundamentals” back in Feb.
Was actually was backed by revenue growth from AI?
2026-06-05 10:31:16
专门写给我的中文读者：
绿的谐波（LeaderDrive，688017，577.3亿人民币）是我在布局人形机器人赛道时最青睐的中国上市标的。
他们的业务涵盖：
谐波减速器（据称占有超过60%的国内市场份额，以及1800多家全球客户）
人形机器人旋转关节减速器
直线执行器
电机/关节，以及许多其他核心零部件。
并且他们正在进军行星滚柱丝杠（planetary roller screws）领域。
目前占据着绝对的主导地位：超过60%的国内市场份额以及1800多家全球客户。
主要客户包括优傲机器人（Universal Robots）、优必选（UBTech）、智元机器人（Agibot），而特斯拉（Tesla）、Figure 以及绝大多数其他人形机器人研发商都很可能是他们的潜在客户。
如果你看一下这些零部件的 BOM（物料清单），粗略估计它们占到了每台研发出的人形机器人的 4-15%，随着他们进军更多细分领域，这个比例可能还会更高。
我认为没有人能对这类公司进行精确的财务建模，其前景更多取决于未来几年内会有多少人形机器人实现量产。
这其实是对一家能够在每台生产出的人形机器人中占据可观份额的公司，进行的一种方向性做多（directional long）。
在可扩展的规模化量产方面，中国显然是该领域的领导者，许多西方玩家无法将成本降到绿的谐波那样的水平。
随着我们向实体人工智能（physical AI）的规模化迈进，我极其看好机器人这个赛道。
2026-06-05 08:46:54
$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28.
Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute?
There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers…
Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration.
I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T.
So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing…
Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028.
Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time?
Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected…
Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.
2026-06-05 08:03:15
Anthropic: “Urges Global Pause in AI Development”
Translation: “please let us take the lead, stop building!”
Regardless, statements like this encourage every Country to start investing in AI.
Implications are profound from fields of medicine, math, and basically everything.
@elonmusk
2026-06-05 23:36:21
RT by @elonmusk: Storyboarding in Grok @imagine was pretty fun. I really like how the agents help visualize some of the important historical events.
I was trying to iterate through the clothing and voices from the ancient Chinese drawing to reflect on the historical fact and it was fun to interact with.
2026-06-05 22:55:31
RT by @elonmusk: Elon Musk just gave a massive update on Community Notes
Users who interact with a misleading post that is later corrected by Community Notes will now receive the correction directly through X Chat
This is a huge upgrade
People who saw the original claim will now actually see the correction too
𝕏 is the platform where truth shines and this step takes it even closer to the truth
2026-06-05 22:39:46
RT by @elonmusk: SpaceX has launched in 7 years almost as many satellites as every government and private company in the world did since the 50s
2026-06-05 22:31:44
Users who interact with a misleading post that is subsequently corrected by @CommunityNotes will receive an 𝕏 Chat message of the CN to correct any misperception
2026-06-05 22:27:50
RT by @elonmusk: Europe has no-go zones in Paris and London.
That’s our future if we don’t stop mass Islamic immigration.
2026-06-05 22:00:31
RT by @elonmusk: i still think about this
2026-06-05 22:00:00
RT by @elonmusk: Come visit our CVPR booth for hands-on experiences:
– Neural video generation + sim drive – Selfies with @Tesla_Optimus – Real FSD test drives in Tesla models of your choice
Chat directly with the team behind it, including @aelluswamy & @pduan and other engineers to get answers to your questions. Recruiters are also on-site for career opportunities.
While others talk about autonomous driving, Tesla is the only one solving it in the real world with a true long-term approach. Come experience live demos and grab some swag!
2026-06-05 21:02:06
RT by @elonmusk: Hot take: Universities charge $300,000 for a degree that teaches you skills any LLM can do for free. At some point we need to have an honest conversation about whether higher education is the greatest individuals misallocation of capital in recent history.
2026-06-05 15:19:15
29 more Starlink satellites.
Over 10,000 in orbit now.
2026-06-05 15:18:08
Grok supports worktrees
2026-06-05 15:16:01
Grok Build updates
2026-06-05 15:13:52
Grok model improvement
2026-06-05 13:48:36
RT by @elonmusk: How did white people become the protectors and defenders of every group except white people?
2026-06-05 13:21:23
RT by @elonmusk: Drop the fiction. Just science.
2026-06-05 12:23:36
Yes, SPLC is a criminal organization
2026-06-05 12:06:09
Video
2026-06-05 11:28:40
Yup
2026-06-05 11:28:18
Corruption
2026-06-05 11:25:08
RT by @elonmusk: I’m about to offer the House-passed version of the SAVE America Act on the Senate floor in connection with tonight’s vote-a-rama
This one should get at least 51 votes
Will keep you posted
2026-06-05 11:11:12
Vote them out
2026-06-05 10:01:33
SpaceX
2026-06-05 07:49:30
RT by @elonmusk: ELON MUSK: The Future of Energy Is Beyond Earth.
"It's increasingly difficult to build power plants on the ground. There are very few people who want a power plant in their backyard, so if we wanted to say double the electricity usage of the United States, which is on average about 500 gigawatts, we would have to build, about twice as many power plants, which I don't think people are, well, most communities are not super excited about that, but actually, if we go to space, we can go far beyond the electricity generation of Earth.
In fact, this is going to sound kind of crazy, but you could actually increase harnessed energy by a factor of a million and still be using much less than a millionth of the sun's energy, so current human civilization uses much less than a trillionth of the sun's energy output, which is kind of humbling to think about."
2026-06-05 07:22:38
Even 2010 tbh
2026-06-05 07:13:25
RT by @elonmusk: Il y a une chose que peu de gens ont compris, et qui sera pourtant évidente dans dix ans.
Nous ne vivons pas une crise. Nous vivons une bascule. Et tout ce qui ressemble aujourd'hui au chaos n'est que le bruit d'un vieux monde qui refuse de mourir pendant qu'un nouveau se met en marche.
Le premier verrou qui saute, c'est le mental. Pendant soixante ans, l'Occident a été infecté par un virus qui lui faisait haïr sa propre réussite. La honte de bâtir, la suspicion de l'excellence, la sacralisation de la plainte. Elon a fait ce que personne n'osait faire, il a nommé le virus à voix haute et il a refusé de s'y soumettre. Quand un seul homme montre que l'on peut bâtir sans demander la permission, des millions comprennent qu'ils le peuvent aussi. Le sortilège se brise toujours par l'exemple, jamais par le décret.
Le deuxième verrou, c'est la géographie de l'audace. L'Occident n'a pas perdu sa place parce qu'il était devenu faible, il l'a perdue parce qu'il avait décidé d'avoir peur. Peur du risque, peur du nucléaire, peur de la croissance, peur de lui-même. Or la frontière revient là où l'on ose à nouveau. Les fusées repartent, les usines reviennent, l'énergie redevient un projet plutôt qu'une culpabilité. L'Occident ne reprend pas son trône par nostalgie, il le reprend parce qu'il recommence à construire pendant que les autres administrent.
Le troisième verrou, c'est la rareté elle-même. L'intelligence devient abondante, le travail devient abondant, l'énergie devient abondante. Le gâteau cesse d'être fixe, et le jour où le gâteau cesse d'être fixe, toute la logique du ressentiment s'effondre d'un coup. On ne se bat pas pour partager l'infini. La réussite de l'autre cesse d'être ma perte. L'abondance est l'antidote chimique à la haine.
Et c'est là qu'arrive la plus belle partie, celle dont on ose à peine parler.
Une fois la survie résolue, la vie redevient un jeu. Pas un jeu futile, le plus sérieux des jeux. Un monde où chacun n'a plus à se demander comment survivre, mais quelle est sa place, sa quête, sa contribution à quelque chose de plus grand que lui. Certains bâtiront des villes pensées comme des œuvres, d'autres feront avancer la science comme une aventure, d'autres dessineront, soigneront, exploreront. Et au sommet, une seule grande quête commune, la seule à la hauteur de l'espèce, ouvrir le cosmos.
Des hôtels sur la Lune, des vaisseaux vers Mars, des sphères de Dyson, des étoiles colonisées. Ce n'est pas de la science-fiction, c'est le prochain objectif de niveau. La Terre n'était que le tutoriel.
Le vrai conflit du siècle ne sera plus le riche contre le pauvre. Ce sera le gardien contre l'explorateur. Ceux qui veulent un petit monde qu'ils contrôlent, et ceux qui veulent un monde immense qui les dépasse.
Je sais de quel côté je me tiens.
L'avenir est radieux. Il est temps de jouer pour de vrai, et il est temps de construire. https://x.com/SpaceX/status/2062489901007057075/video/1
2026-06-05 07:05:41
RT by @elonmusk: Elon Musk says Orbital AI Data Centers will be easier than Communication Satellites for SpaceX:
"The Starlink V3 communications satellites is an incredibly complex machine. The AI Data Center will be much simpler by comparison.
It’s really just solar power, plus radiator, some basic equipment, and the laser links would connect to the Starlink communications constellation, and then to the ground."
2026-06-05 06:26:04
Starlink V3 satellites have >10X bandwidth of V2 and there’ll be >10X launched, which means >100X more bandwidth.
Also, altitude will be 350km vs 550km, so min latency can be cut in half.
Light travels 300km/ms in space, so physics round trip min latency drops to <5ms.
2026-06-05 05:37:35
Yup
2026-06-05 04:55:43
Video
2026-06-05 04:51:34
SpaceX IPO info
2026-06-05 03:26:06
RT by @elonmusk: Ideological conditioning and two-tiered policing are glaring symptoms of civilizational decline. They must be rejected across the West.
The United States sends our condolences to the family of Henry Nowak and the people of the United Kingdom at this troubling time.
2026-06-05 03:23:26
RT by @elonmusk: Starmer on Henry Nowak: "Don't exploit this for politics"
Starmer on George Floyd:
2026-06-05 03:13:28
This provides some sense of scale
@xiaomustock
2026-06-05 23:10:59
人们都期待的是买入即拉盘， 而不是漫长的等待， 他们一刻都等不了， 更别说五年十年。 但真是买入天天暴涨， 泡沫得大到多大的程度， 公司的营收和科技的发展肯定得跟公司市值匹配或者不能差太多。
2026-06-05 23:08:36
今天这个心理按摩都按不动， 跌的疼的一逼， 身体没受害， 感觉被砍了一刀。 十年前的前十公司市值，合起来没有现在英伟达一家多。 通货膨胀一直也在膨胀全球最顶级的公司市值。
2026-06-05 22:36:25
太惨了，如来佛祖来了
2026-06-05 14:26:30
女股神都救不了eth和btc， 被cz俩口子搞成诈骗市场废了， 唯一败绩败给了crytpo， 再牛的人来了也得亏成裤衩子才能走。 全线崩盘。
2026-06-05 14:00:52
仓位不大今天都亏到自闭， 不说话了。 沉浸式打游戏😂
2026-06-05 13:13:56
股票就是先信卖后信，早信早发财。 白毛女刚发的时候还是跌的， 现在直接20cm 周末说不定再发酵一波
2026-06-05 02:19:21
我要是 $INTC 英特尔老板， 就直接全部放弃自己的cpu业务，转头给 $NVDA 英伟达 和 $AMD 代工他们家的cpu， 反正自己家的cpu都打不过他俩家，干脆不做了，直接给这俩家搞代工，这样俩家也不怕英特尔偷技术，反正自己cpu业务放弃了，还能出让点专利费。 还能接来自海力士美光这些存储厂的HBM代工， 以美国优先的策略，市值能轻轻松松干过 $台积电。 可惜呐，非要自己浪费一大堆资金搞cpu研发，还亏的底朝天。
2026-06-05 02:09:45
海力士除了与台积电代工合作， 正在寻求 $INTC 英特尔来解决产能不足的问题，存储厂商都称27年产能缺口很大。
对于 $INTC 英特尔业务线的唯一正解， 彻底放弃自己的cpu业务， 孤注一掷转向代工业务， 那么 $INTC 市值至少能飙升到1.5万亿美金以上， 业务能立马实现盈利。 可惜英特尔还在硬捣鼓他们那个已经落后了的cpu芯片。 就看以后英特尔会不会这样干。
2026-06-05 01:35:49
感谢老板们订阅，订阅里没啥太多不一样的内容，受之有愧，另外也不想跟老板们有啥资金纠葛。 打算月底了绑个卡把这个钱捐给韩红基金会， 就当给你们积福缘了。
2026-06-05 00:52:11
今天 $AVGO 博通和 $MRVL 迈威尔这俩反弹带来的反差感，增强了我长期拿 $MRVL 的信心。 这俩同时抄的底，开盘前都亏，现在 $MRVL 拉起来赚钱了， $AVGO 还亏，纹丝不动，感觉像被 $MRVL 吸血了一样。 不过 $AVGO 5%总能反弹到的吧，他娘的。
@dianzhuXS
2026-06-05 18:45:50
今晚22：00～24:00（東九區時間） 群體意識集中兩個小時 眾念【秦州稱亡，世界和平】
2026-06-05 11:33:30
以這篇「定數」 勸牠們最後一次
😮💨😮💨😮💨
鎡基詎可為君計 畢竟年深轉見難 俗事于懷人汨沒 舊交相隙轉瓓珊 休傳萬里歸空雁 好問千重遠舍山 此語瞭然君自覺 不須說起淚欄干
2026-06-05 11:29:31
以這篇「定數」 勸牠們最後一次
😮💨😮💨😮💨
鎡基詎可為君計 畢竟年深轉見難 俗事于懷人淚沒 舊交相隙轉瓓珊 休傳萬里歸空雁 好問千重遠舍山 此語瞭然君自覺 不須說起淚欄干
2026-06-05 08:31:19
2026年的芒種交節入氣 是在6月5日晚上23時48分04秒
@JonathanDi3614
2026-06-05 00:09:08
复盘：大科技极限抱团，非科技被吸血 今日操作：华光环能 上证中轨线4133，下轨线4019。个股跌多涨少，中位数-1.69%。盘面其实很好理解——别被那些小道消息绕晕了，一句话：大科技极度抱团，对非科技疯狂吸血。
年内高点4258点，已经套住了大量散户资金。主力的任务只有一个：把散户洗出去。带血的筹码才最香。
半导体经历一波主升后，分化严重。不少个股走出双头趋势，量能接近前高。但大盘还在震荡筑底，没有持续放量，突破前高很难。逢高减仓，是稳妥的选择。
今天指数没往下轨探，亏钱效应却很明显。接下来几天，方向性选择就要来了。抱团可能瓦解，边走边看。
别急，等方向明朗再动手。
生成时间：2026-08-04T07:45:00.103Z