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📅 20260628 推文存档
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@elonmusk
2026-06-28 23:35:27
RT by @elonmusk: Tell me more about billionaires buying our elections.
2026-06-28 23:25:20
RT by @elonmusk: Here's one of Michael Crichton's very finest quotes, especially applicable to climate "science": "I want to pause here and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had. Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right ... In science, consensus is irrelevant." Best to everyone, w.
2026-06-28 23:02:24
RT by @elonmusk: Elon Musk sitting by the Model 3 production line in 2017 on his birthday Never give up 🙌
2026-06-28 22:49:39
RT by @elonmusk: Après avoir vu Elon répondre au Programme alimentaire mondial de l'ONU qui lui réclamait 6 milliards pour "résoudre la faim dans le monde", j'ai compris quelque chose que je vais essayer de prouver ici. Désormais, méfiez-vous de TOUT le monde qui achète de la sympathie publique en signant des chèques. Reprenons l'histoire d'Elon, parce qu'elle est parfaite. 2021. Le patron du PAM, David Beasley, le tague publiquement : "2 % de ta fortune et tu résous la faim." Elon ne dit pas non. Il dit une seule chose, et c'est la chose la plus saine qu'un milliardaire ait jamais dite à une ONG : "Décrivez-moi exactement comment 6 milliards résolvent la faim. Compta open-source, que le public voie où va chaque dollar. Et je vends du Tesla immédiatement." Réponse de l'ONU : un plan à 6,6 milliards pour nourrir 42 millions de personnes… pendant un an. Vous voyez le problème ? Ils n'ont jamais pu répondre à la vraie question. Parce que la réponse n'existe pas. Le don ne résout rien : il nourrit douze mois, et la faim revient en janvier. C'est un abonnement, pas une solution. Beasley demandait un robinet permanent et l'appelait "charité". La charité moderne, c'est ça : un puits sans fond déguisé en vertu. Elle ne touche jamais les causes profondes — la gouvernance, les institutions, la corruption, l'absence de marchés — parce que toucher les causes profondes tuerait l'industrie. Une ONG qui résout son problème se suicide. Son incitation, c'est que le problème dure. Et l'argent ? Il ne va presque jamais à ceux qui sont censés le recevoir. Il s'évapore en couches de logistique, de salaires d'ONG, d'overhead, de "renforcement des capacités", de conférences à Genève. Vous donnez 100, le bénéficiaire en voit une fraction. Le reste fait vivre la classe professionnelle de la compassion. Et puis il y a l'aile "intellectuelle" du truc : l'effective altruism. La version QI 145 du virtue signaling. Calculer froidement le bien marginal par dollar, "earn to give", sauver le futur. Le poster boy du mouvement s'appelait Sam Bankman-Fried. Il a détourné des milliards de clients en expliquant que c'était pour le bien de l'humanité. 25 ans de prison. Toute la ramification autour — fondations, think tanks, gourous de la moralité quantifiée — a découvert que l'altruisme optimisé est l'alibi parfait pour la fraude. Quand tu te crois en mission cosmique, voler devient un détail comptable. Maintenant, le retournement. Devinez la SEULE forme de charité avec des preuves dures, des RCT propres, qui marche vraiment ? Donner du cash. Brut. Random. À un village. Sans condition, sans plan, sans ONG qui t'explique comment vivre. Étude Egger et al., Econometrica 2022 : 1 000 $ donnés à 10 500 ménages dans 653 villages au Kenya. Résultat : pour chaque dollar injecté, ~2,5 dollars d'activité économique locale. Quasi zéro inflation. Les gens achètent, les commerçants embauchent, le grain circule, le meunier rouvre plus tard. ~80 % de l'argent reste dans le marché local. Et c'est là l'ironie totale, presque cruelle : le seul "acte de charité" qui fonctionne fonctionne parce que ce n'est PAS de la charité. C'est juste… du capital qu'on laisse couler dans une économie. Vous n'aidez pas les gens en leur donnant un plan. Vous les aidez en amorçant la pompe et en les laissant être des agents économiques. La charité qui marche, c'est juste du capitalisme déclenché de force. Donc voilà ma règle. Méfiez-vous de quiconque achète votre estime avec un don public. Le chèque visible n'est pas une preuve de vertu, c'est une transaction : de la sympathie contre de l'argent, payée par les pauvres qui restent pauvres pour que le donateur reste admiré. La vraie philanthropie ne pose pas pour la photo. Elle construit des produits, des entreprises, des emplois, des marchés. Elle amorce la pompe et s'en va. Le reste, c'est de la cocaïne pour riches sans créativité.
2026-06-28 21:23:57
RT by @elonmusk: Elon Musk turns 55 today. Here are 55 milestones. Age 54: world's first trillionaire Age 54: takes SpaceX public Age 54: SpaceX acquires xAI Age 54: releases Grok 4 Age 53: launches Robotaxi service Age 53: xAI acquires X Age 53: catches Starship booster Age 53: unveils Cybercab Age 53: first private spacewalk Age 53: Colossus supercomputer Age 52: first Neuralink implant Age 52: launches Grok Age 52: rebrands Twitter as X Age 52: founds xAI Age 51: launches first Starship Age 51: buys Twitter Age 50: flies first all-civilian crew Age 50: unveils Optimus robot Age 49: wins NASA moon contract Age 48: launches crew to orbit Age 48: ships Tesla Model Y Age 48: unveils Cybertruck Age 48: launches Tesla Megapack Age 47: first Starlink satellites Age 46: launches Falcon Heavy Age 46: unveils Tesla Semi Age 45: starts Boring Company Age 45: opens first Gigafactory Age 45: founds Neuralink Age 45: unveils Solar Roof Age 45: reflies Falcon 9 Age 44: reveals Tesla Model 3 Age 44: lands a rocket booster Age 44: co-founds OpenAI Age 44: ships Tesla Model X Age 43: unveils Powerwall Age 43: launches Tesla Autopilot Age 41: opens first Superchargers Age 40: ships Tesla Model S Age 40: Dragon reaches ISS Age 39: Dragon reaches orbit Age 39: takes Tesla public (IPO) Age 38: Falcon 9 first flight Age 37: Falcon 1 reaches orbit Age 36: ships first Tesla Roadster Age 35: co-founds SolarCity Age 32: co-founds Tesla Age 31: sells PayPal to eBay Age 30: founds SpaceX Age 30: takes PayPal public Age 27: founds X dot com Age 27: sells Zip2 to Compaq Age 24: co-founds Zip2 Age 19: sells PCs in dorm Age 12: codes video game Blastar
2026-06-28 21:00:21
RT by @elonmusk: Today’s cover: George Soros and son Alex have funneled staggering $103M into midterms so far, on track to shatter spending record https://trib.al/vfu5pMk
2026-06-28 20:03:50
RT by @elonmusk: If they genuinely think that the USAID cuts have caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands, or millions, shouldn't they also be highly upset with Mackenzie Scott for not saving all these people? The cost of the Aid cuts to Africa is something like $5 billion a year, and they claimed that already hundreds of thousands to millions have died. $26 billion could have saved them and more.
2026-06-28 19:20:06
RT by @elonmusk: Elon Musk reveals the moment his son Saxon left an entire sushi restaurant speechless "I was living in L.A., and I took my older boys out for lunch to Sugarfish, which is a very kind of uptight sushi restaurant. In fact, on the menu of the restaurant, it says, do not ask for soy sauce, because the chef has put the right amount of soy sauce." "So, like, extremely strict sushi restaurant. And so the waiter is going around asking everyone what they want and then it comes to Saxon and Saxon says I'll have a cheeseburger." "And the waiter takes a moment to recover because no one ever asked for a cheeseburger at this very strict sushi restaurant. It took him like 30 seconds to realize he'd just been asked for a cheeseburger, because you're not even allowed to ask for soy sauce." "So then when he finally recovered, he said, we don't have cheeseburgers. And Saxon goes at the top of his voice, what? Like, what kind of restaurant doesn't have cheeseburgers? He says, fine, I'll have a hamburger."
2026-06-28 18:50:05
Grok 4.5, based on our 1.5T V9 foundation model, with Cursor data added in supplemental training, is now in private beta at SpaceX & Tesla. Early evals show performance close to, perhaps exceeding Opus. RL is continuing to significantly improve the model, and the Grok Build harness gets better every day. Nice work by all those involved! Completely trained from scratch new models will be released by @SpaceX every month this year.
2026-06-28 14:15:14
RT by @elonmusk: Happy Birthday Elon 🎂 YOU are the love of humanity ❤️
2026-06-28 11:51:11
RT by @elonmusk: 🎂 Happy birthday, @elonmusk. Humankind's guardian Angel. >be Elon Musk >richest man alive >could buy anything and sun his Balls >decide to spend the whole fortune fighting for the human race instead >start SpaceX >everyone says you cannot land a rocket >land them anyway >goal is to make humanity multiplanetary so one bad day on one rock doesn't end the entire species >backup the light of consciousness itself >start Tesla >legacy auto giants laugh in your face >drag the entire planet toward sustainable energy by force >now every one of them is scrambling to copy you >open-source the patents so the whole industry can move faster >build Starlink >Ukraine gets cut off from the world overnight >switch it on for them immediately >keep millions connected when every other system failed >start Neuralink >people paralyzed for decades told they will never move again >put a chip in a man's brain >he moves a cursor with a thought >give the disabled their lives back >build Optimus >decide nobody should be trapped doing backbreaking labor to survive >build a robot to do the work humans never wanted >aim straight at scarcity itself >look at Twitter >see a censorship machine quietly deciding what billions of people are allowed to think and say >buy the entire thing for 44 billion >open the files and show everyone how the censorship worked >turn it back into a town square where a normal person can actually speak >build Grok >every other ai lobotomized to give the approved answer >refuse to make a machine that lies to people to keep them comfortable >build one that actually tells the truth instead >maximally truth-seeking >watch a mind virus crawl through every institution >careers ended for saying the wrong thing out loud >refuse to play along >name the woke mind virus and fight it head on >make it ok to think for yourself again >watch the whole machine line up to crush one election >put your name, your money, your reputation on the line >go all in to help Trump win >take fire from every direction for doing it >bet everything on the people instead of the machine >start DOGE >government torching tax money on things nobody ever voted for >open the books so every citizen can see it >show people exactly where their paychecks were disappearing to >bureaucrats suddenly very, very nervous >unelected judges overriding what the voters actually chose >two-tier justice, one rule for them and another for everyone else >call it out by name in front of the whole world >refuse to let robed activists run the country >hear about young girls groomed and r**ed for years >councils, police, and social services knew and buried it >media refuses to touch the story >everyone too scared of being called a name to say a word >post about it anyway >refuse to let it stay buried >drag the entire coverup into daylight >victims finally heard after being ignored for over a decade >look at the birth rate >realize civilization is quietly dying because people stopped having kids >sound the alarm while everyone else ignores it >fight for the future to actually have humans in it >has lots of wonderful children >get called every name in existence for all of it >keep going regardless >mfw none of it was ever about the money >mfw it was always about humanity >turns 55 today >plans for the future span decades >still going
2026-06-28 10:29:51
Good point
2026-06-28 10:28:39
Yes
2026-06-28 07:03:45
RT by @elonmusk: Everyone tells me that Elon Musk is a fascist because he could "solve world hunger" for a mere 3 billion dollars, but MacKenzie Bezos has burned through 26 billion dollars of her ex husband's money and accomplished absolutely nothing of note.
2026-06-28 05:47:57
RT by @elonmusk: "To anyone I have offended, I just want to say I reinvented electric cars and I am sending people to Mars on a Rocketship, did you think I was also gonna be a chill normal dude?" @elonmusk
2026-06-28 01:29:26
RT by @elonmusk: xAI models now support Zero Data Retention (ZDR) on OpenRouter Developers can now use: • Grok 4.3 • Grok 4.20 • Grok Build 0.1 with Zero Data Retention enabled This means requests aren’t retained by the provider, making it a strong option for privacy-sensitive and enterprise workloads
2026-06-28 00:48:53
RT by @elonmusk: 2 year old girl raped and murdered by a migrant This is the moderate response
2026-06-28 00:39:17
RT by @elonmusk: Citizen Vigilante Delivers the Warning Western Governments Desperately Need to Hear
@xiaomustock
2026-06-28 18:23:03
群联ceo在年初就预言下半年因为涨价或拿不到存储的消费电子公司会倒闭，比如那个运动相机鼻祖gopro已经因此倒闭了。 一切都在逐步印证他的想法。
2026-06-28 18:17:24
谷歌限制了meta对gemini模型的使用需求。 这还不能证明AI基建还非常早期吗， 供不应求，AI的发展速度远超基建速度。 这些大公司是看到了产品狂暴的需求端可能才大举借债融资搞AI基建。 并非是没有转化成收入， 对谷歌来说都开始因为需求暴限制客户使用了， 咋可能没转化收入。 我们这些普通人都是小虾米，可能远远看不清未来的真相， 但自己看不见可以相信黄仁勋看得见，谷歌看得见，美光ceo看得见，三星海力士老板看得见，群联的那个ceo潘健成也非常非常有眼光和远见，我从去年到今年一直看他的存储相关的言论，他的思维和眼光特别超前。
2026-06-28 16:46:01
存储的地位一年内都难以改变， 安心等海力士7月23号发的1300亿美金的季度利润财报。 美光难料，但 #海力士 绝对没问题。 这些大公司云厂的借债和融资都是为了给存储送钱。要么生要么死，没有存储产品和服务就没法提供，这俩年产能就这么多。 即使是国内长鑫长江一样是满产。
2026-06-28 13:55:59
今天也算是半年过去，对自己上半年的惨痛交易也做个总结， 1.尽量买标品生意能流水线生产的或者互联网能直接复制产品的公司。 诺基亚这一俩个月俩回没啥起色，可能就跟它非标品的生意模式有关，基站啥的只能靠人力一点点干，搞土地搞关系搞人力搞供应链，苦力生意。 2.尽量买护城河极高，能参与公司极少的垄断公司垄断行业，湖南裕能这些就是对手多，无脑扩产的太疯狂，很难形成自己稳固的定价权。 3.自己没法掌控它实时仓过往业绩也不是特别好的etf或者lof少碰。当时5月初选港美互联网lof这个标是因为它持有美光和闪迪。如果基金经理完全按照一季度持仓加仓，则后续理论上表现会非常夸张，毕竟美光和闪迪在6月都涨了快50%，但真想不通这个傻逼经理在秀什么几把操作，后续价格走势完全跟美光和闪迪无关联。简直是盲盒交易。远不及中韩半导体这种etf持仓稳固，几个季度过去一直高比例持有三星海力士。 4.最重要最严重的错误，融资上杠杆。 差点在3月份爆仓死掉，2x海力士和ewy都暴跌差点没熬过去。以后再不去买超过自己本金的资产，顶多在自己本金范围内购买2x扩大上升周期的收益。 最沉痛的教训，当时3月的暴跌不仅吞噬了我1/2月份的收益，还直接巨亏打到了接近失去上桌的机会。 后续市场肯定还会有类似的波动， 比如真的加息来临， 比如市场承受不住大把的AI公司发债融资， 比如存储高价可能大幅抑制消费端需求，造成需求减弱，或者存储后期大幅度扩产引发降价等等。 总之市场会在我们意想不到的方式来一个黑天鹅来摧毁杠杆投资者，一俩个月风声过去，股市继续歌舞升平，全场新高，但与你无关。
2026-06-28 13:05:30
这是年初写的对去年的交易体会总结， 能未来替代目前全AI行业抽水机存储地位的，可能就是康宁的这个集成了光纤光通信的玻璃基板。 不过没有发生百亿美金规模级的利润前人们还很难确定，我也是。 只是从黄仁勋让康宁扩产10倍，那么肯定对应着未来英伟达十倍以上的需求。 说明在投产放量后会发生10倍以上的需求暴增，这跟存储发生的事情有点点像。 如果未来某一天发生AI的某细分行业数倍增速百亿美金级别的规模利润，如果还拥有极高护城河极少竞争对手，那值得瞬间梭哈 。 现在阶段只能猜，但最终会百分之一万有这么一天，至于哪个细分则不可知。
2026-06-28 03:11:19
现在看来 康宁 $GLW 是英伟达接下来的芯片散热必选项。芯片越堆越厚，玻璃基板成了唯一解决方案。而未来康宁的产量会直接决定英伟达的产量，如果康宁不扩产，未来英伟达的芯片就没法迭代更先进的版本，因为传统基板满足不了后续新一代AI芯片的散热问题。
@aleabitoreddit
2026-06-28 17:32:04
Yup, Schaeffler $SHA0 is the ideal example for automotive players. ~ €7.47B MC auto player. - but also working with 45 humanoid players (extremely insane number, they do have €5.14b debt, EV is higher) - covers bearings, gearboxes, sensors/ECUs, actuators, power electronics. -ests. They can be roughly 50% BOM of a humanoid - targeting 10% market share of that. But only projecting a few hundred million revenue by 2030 (extremely sandbagged) if we’re using Elon’s projections for the market. Then’s theres auto players like Nabtesco (6268) for joints. And then Sanhua in China for $TSLA Optimus. Many of them are trade at lower valuations from drag from auto. But humanoids + AI Auto (TSM chairman cited this as a growth vector) should be a good catalyst past 2027 for automotive players. IMO there just needs to be a ChatGPT/Anthropic breakout downstream leader first for humanoids. That brings up the entire ecosystem that has robotics exposure. But as of now it’s probably like 1% of many of their overall revenue figures, and markets are focusing on immediate upside from bottlenecks like memory or MLCC. I’m sure we’ll see some random Toto-HBM type surprise as different humanoid architecture evolve.
2026-06-28 15:37:26
Guess we finally found why $META signed massive agreements with Neoclouds like $NBIS back in March... And why Gemini got super nerfed. $GOOGL reportedly restricted Meta's capacity in March 2026 because of compute restraints. Google's CEO said from last earnings computing power restrictions prevented Google Cloud from taking on more customer needs and made the department's backlog nearly double the previous quarter. This is probably positive for the AI DC capex buildout since hyperscalers capacity is way below what is needed, and especially so if they can't rely on one another.
2026-06-28 11:34:17
WSJ: “China Has Matched Anthropic in Cybersecurity, Resetting AI Race” China’s Zhipu AI, has matched Anthropic’s Mythos in certain benchmarks, such as exploiting cybersecurity bugs. Well, that’s not good. Instead of blaming the administration which did the correct thing… Anthropic’s clearly at fault for not setting enough guardrails to prevent distillation. Even before Fable release there were a lot of rumors that China had backdoors to distill it. Part of it is the trillions of capex to accelerate the AI moat. And the second part is not handing that work over on a silver platter for millions in API calls.
@dianzhuXS
2026-06-28 12:55:35
重要通知❗️ ❗️ ❗️ 今晚直播取消 因在油管發帖收到警告 不能有外部鏈接 （已刪帖） 所以還是做一期錄播節目吧 畢竟目前還不能完全告別油管 今晚開錄爭取明天在油管更新 謝謝大家的理解
2026-06-28 10:34:15
昨天直播有一個關鍵點忘了聊，想今天繼續，會不會太耽誤大家休息了？https://x.com/i/spaces/1jGXggOgMOdKZ
2026-06-28 09:57:14
玄學中愣充大明白，像張紹剛一樣，不懂裝懂的很多很多
2026-06-28 07:39:24
昨晚的直播中 說「中國尊」風水 寧讓青龍高萬丈 不叫白虎抬頭望 順口提到了 我去年駁斥大老王的 「血外行潦草玄學」 以前都支持川普 我說的還算溫和 現在牠成了川黑流量逼 也就是我的對立面 我自己懶得找 有心人可以自己去翻翻 說白宮坐向那一帖 貼在留言裡更歡迎 一個從來沒正經學過的愛好者 都能笑話專業人士死讀書 玄學真是門檻太低了 還是那句話 大盧不怕看合訂本 說到合訂本再提一件事 川普訪中那幾天說打台灣的 都是牠們自己希望「打台灣」 現在呢？打了嗎？ 用對世界大亂的詛咒 迎合牆內精緻利己 提供情緒價值換點廣告費 看不得別人過好日子 純屬壞逼+流量逼，雙逼本逼！ 直播錄音保存在Substack👇 精彩的風水學和奇門遁甲解盤 還需不需要我親自寫重點筆記呢？ https://substack.com/@dianzhuxs/note/p-203833421?r=8moxkp&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
2026-06-28 06:33:48
說打台灣的，都是牠們自己希望「打台灣」，看不得別人過好日子，純屬壞逼！
生成时间：2026-08-04T07:45:00.092Z