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📅 20260801 推文存档
📊 共 57 条推文
@elonmusk
2026-08-01 23:01:21
Grok 4.5 is Pareto #1 when considering speed & cost
2026-08-01 22:45:42
RT by @elonmusk: NASA recently recognized one of America’s outstanding engineers. At @SpaceX’s Rocket Development Facility in McGregor, Texas, I joined Congressman @PeteSessions and McGregor Mayor Jim Moody to present Andrew Berkowitz with NASA’s Exceptional Public Achievement Award. Andrew’s pioneering research to better understand liquid methane and oxygen explosions is helping enable the next generation of rockets that will return Americans to the Moon, establish a sustained U.S. presence on the lunar surface, and prepare us for Mars. America’s greatest achievements in space are built by extraordinary people whose work often happens behind the scenes. Andrew’s contributions will help shape the future of exploration for years to come. Congratulations on this well-deserved honor, Andrew, and thank you for your contributions to NASA’s mission and America’s future in space.
2026-08-01 22:40:51
RT by @elonmusk: AI will increasingly do more and more difficult tasks that would take longer and longer to comprehend. We will, at first, gasp. Then, over time, it will be just another normal day. Just like people expect Full Self-Driving to take them from Point A to Point B without questions.
2026-08-01 21:58:00
RT by @elonmusk: I would like to see a steampunk-style film
2026-08-01 14:57:13
RT by @elonmusk: SpaceX just completed its 90th Falcon-family launch of 2026 Falcon 9 lifted off from Vandenberg carrying 24 Starlink satellites, successfully deploying all of them into low Earth orbit Booster B1081 completed its 26th mission and landed on Of Course I Still Love You in the Pacific That is 89 Falcon 9 launches and one Falcon Heavy mission in just seven months
2026-08-01 14:13:33
They are far along the road to extinction
2026-08-01 14:03:27
Video
2026-08-01 14:02:35
💯
2026-08-01 13:52:38
Cool
2026-08-01 12:16:02
Grok Build can do almost anything you can think of http://X.ai/cli
2026-08-01 10:58:45
RT by @elonmusk: Watch Falcon 9 launch 24 @Starlink satellites to orbit from California https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1AxRnnrObgzxl
2026-08-01 10:02:49
Grok Build improvements http://X.ai/cli
2026-08-01 09:55:40
Video
2026-08-01 09:49:03
Try @Grok Build http://X.ai/cli
2026-08-01 08:58:58
Imagine Video 1.5 improvements
2026-08-01 08:46:44
SpaceX is hiring exceptional engineering & skilled trades talent to build & operate the most powerful AI supercomputer clusters on & off Earth. If interested, please email 3 bullet points demonstrating evidence of exceptional ability & your resume to datacenters@spacex.com.
2026-08-01 08:31:18
RT by @elonmusk: They smashed babies against trees and murdered nearly 2 million Cambodians in under 4 years chasing a pure agrarian communist utopia with no cities, no money, and no private property. On April 17 1975, the Khmer Rouge rolled into Phnom Penh and within hours emptied the entire city, marching hospital patients and the elderly into the countryside on foot as they declared Year Zero and set out to erase every trace of the old society. Anyone tied to the past became a target and wearing glasses alone could get you killed because it proved you could read, while doctors, teachers, engineers, and monks were executed as enemies of the revolution. They turned a high school into a prison where roughly 20,000 people were tortured into confessing crimes that never happened, after which they were trucked to mass graves in the killing fields where executioners smashed infants against the killing tree to save bullets. But they never achieved a classless utopia so it wasn’t like real communism.
2026-08-01 08:06:14
Moonlight Sonata Starship
2026-08-01 07:26:28
RT by @elonmusk: Starlink with @SostGlobalMX, is providing high-speed internet to two community centers run by Indigenous Maya groups on Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula. At these centers, several families can now access digital tools for education, improve farming projects and protect forest conservation 🛰️❤️
2026-08-01 06:53:51
21 out of 27 EU countries have more deaths than births
2026-08-01 06:46:20
Most countries are dying
2026-08-01 06:25:00
RT by @elonmusk: Read this Fauci diary entry closely. Officials would not admit the vaccine was not stopping spread because it might weaken the legal case for mandates. That is not science. That is a cover-up to justify coercion.
2026-08-01 06:01:22
RT by @elonmusk: Connect Superwhisper to Grok Build with your SuperGrok or X Premium subscription
2026-08-01 05:56:17
RT by @elonmusk: I finally have all 1.2 million raw image files from my latest mission to ISS! Here is a sample of one of my favorite Milky Way photos, taken from the Cupola with Nikon Z9, Arri Zeiss 15mm lens, T1.8 with custom sidereal drive that cancelled out star motion relative to our orbit.
2026-08-01 05:29:38
Nigeria alone had 4 million more births than the entire EU last year! https://grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5_55b997a1-df61-4de0-a96c-bcbfe2fe23ae
2026-08-01 05:23:27
This is essentially true. However, it is possible to filter for exceptional people from any country. The problem for the left is that exceptional people mostly won’t vote for them.
2026-08-01 05:06:57
Starship in space as seen by Starlink
2026-08-01 05:05:35
RT by @elonmusk: This is the most impossible launch moments ever captured this close A camera sat beneath Starship’s Super Heavy booster as all 33 Raptor engines ignited at once Inside each Raptor, methane and oxygen produce combustion gases approaching 3,000°C, or roughly 5,400°F Then the full engine array erupts, hammering the launch mount with supersonic exhaust, violent shockwaves, extreme acoustic energy, vibration, water spray and enormous clouds of steam Yet the camera kept recording through the entire ignition sequence from directly beneath the mount, without the view ever clouding or fogging SpaceX team engineered a way to capture footage from the most brutal launch environments imaginable The camera system behind this shot may be almost as impressive as the footage itself
2026-08-01 04:28:39
Troubling
2026-08-01 04:24:08
RT by @elonmusk: Weaponized migration in Spain
2026-08-01 03:44:43
Try Grok 4.5 http://X.ai/cli
2026-08-01 03:15:15
You will be alerted via 𝕏 messaging if there is something you interacted with and perhaps thought was true later turned out to be untrue or incompletely true
2026-08-01 03:05:56
Yeah, the incentives need to change
2026-08-01 03:05:23
Talk to @Grok. You can leave Grok voice on and just tap mute when you’re talking to someone else.
2026-08-01 03:04:08
Product Perfection Produces Prosperity
2026-08-01 03:00:53
RT by @elonmusk: Wake up Europe. You have civilizations worth preserving, and it’s not racist to make sure entrants are compatible with it. If Spain doesn’t handle this migrant invasion decisively, they’ll experience exactly what Paris does. Riots and chaos, even during celebrations.
2026-08-01 02:41:13
😑
2026-08-01 01:34:30
RT by @elonmusk: Tesla now has a dedicated live Virtual Power Plant dashboard for multiple regions: California, Texas, New England, Australia and Puerto Rico. In total, Tesla has 226,158 homes participating with a total capacity of 2.3 GW. You can even go back in time to a specific grid event/date and see how many Powerwall units dispatched, energy output for that event, etc. Pretty cool. Link: https://www.tesla.com/vpp/california
2026-08-01 00:51:11
RT by @elonmusk: Zimbabwe destroyed itself the day it destroyed the people who produce. Confiscating 4,500 productive commercial farms from the people who actually knew how to run them and handing them to political allies with zero farming experience is precisely how you turn Africa’s breadbasket into a country that can’t feed itself and ends up printing 100 trillion dollar notes that won’t even cover a bus fare. Mugabe did exactly that in 2000. >commercial farmland lost 3/4 of its value in a single year >food production dropped 60% over the next decade >nearly 700 companies that depended on farm exports and food processing shut down within 2 years >the economy shrank more than 6% a year and average incomes fell by more than half “Just give poor people money, bro!” And so they did with the tax base gone! >printed money to fill the hole >prices were doubling every 24 hours by late 2008 >official inflation numbers stopped being published and an independent economist calculated monthly inflation at 79.6 billion %. Communism is grand.
2026-08-01 00:36:08
RT by @elonmusk: SECRETARY RUBIO: We in America have no interest in being polite and orderly caretakers of the West's managed decline.
2026-08-01 00:19:26
This is extremely important to understand. The birth rate you see in the West is the BLENDED number of ~90% who have a fertility rate half that of replacement and ~10% who have a birth rate double that of replacement. Demographics is destiny.
2026-08-01 00:04:36
RT by @elonmusk: 🕐Annonce : http://ReplacementClock.org est en ligne ! Il y a un an, j’ai cherché un outil de suivi du « Grand Remplacement » : un site qui rassemblerait les données démographiques de l’ensemble du monde occidental et permettrait de mesurer l’ampleur des changements en cours. À ma grande surprise, rien de tel n’existait. Il y a six mois, j’ai donc décidé de le créer moi-même. Aujourd’hui, j’annonce le lancement de la première version de la « Great Replacement Clock ». Cet outil permet de suivre l’évolution de la part de la population d’ascendance européenne dans le monde et dans 45 pays historiquement à majorité européenne. Il réunit données historiques et projections modélisées au sein d’une même frise chronologique interactive. Chaque estimation est documentée et vérifiable, et la méthode employée est présentée en toute transparence. Dans les pays occidentaux, il est particulièrement difficile d’accéder à des données fiables sur l’origine ethnique des populations. Aucun pays ne mesure directement la part de sa population qui est d’ascendance européenne. Plusieurs États interdisent ou restreignent fortement la collecte de telles données. La France, connue pour ses restrictions en matière de statistiques ethniques, en est l’exemple le plus souvent cité, mais elle est loin d’être la seule. Ailleurs, les statistiques officielles rendent les tendances de long terme difficiles à discerner en raison de catégories de recensement changeantes ou de méthodes de regroupement qui gomment des distinctions pourtant significatives. Les problèmes de comptage et de classification prennent des formes récurrentes : inclure les populations originaires du Moyen-Orient et d’Afrique du Nord dans la catégorie « Blancs », classer les immigrés de deuxième ou troisième génération parmi la population « autochtone », ou encore comptabiliser comme simplement « étrangers » les Européens installés dans un autre pays européen. Les États-Unis en offrent un bon exemple : jusqu’en 2020, les normes fédérales classaient les populations originaires du Moyen-Orient et d’Afrique du Nord parmi les Blancs. Il en résulte un paysage informationnel dans lequel certains des faits les plus déterminants pour l’avenir des sociétés occidentales comptent aussi parmi les plus difficiles à établir avec précision. Ce projet vise à combler cette lacune. Il s’appuie sur les meilleures données démographiques disponibles afin de reconstituer, au fil du temps, la part d’ascendance européenne de chaque population selon une définition cohérente d’un pays et d’une époque à l’autre. Les sources, les hypothèses et les ajustements qui sous-tendent chaque estimation sont publiés afin que chacun puisse les examiner. Il s’agit d’une première version. Si un chiffre vous paraît douteux, n’hésitez pas à le signaler. Vos remarques et vos contributions sont les bienvenues. L’outil continuera de s’enrichir et de gagner en précision. La composition démographique relève de l'intérêt public, pas du secret d'État. Les peuples occidentaux ont le droit de savoir quelle heure il est. @RenaudCamus @LibrairieRCamus @jylgallou @InstitutILIADE @EgoNon3 @JRochedy @gannat_JEG @brivael
@dianzhuXS
2026-08-01 19:59:14
今天調試新麥克風 順手給節目加了 一個水印～盧家 明天有直播 明天有直播 明天有直播 重要的事說三遍 🤗🤗🤗
2026-08-01 18:59:25
一個問題 五中全會都開始排期了 怎麼沒人傳「拿下200斤」了呢？ 上次四中全會有陰影了？ 這屆聽床不給力呀？ 這波流量不要了？
2026-08-01 16:31:01
再用中简发一条 最近很多人在骂日本 说日本不宜居住了 我想说 韩国更不宜居住 比日本还不宜居住 尤其墙人 千万不要来了 千万不要来了 千万不要来了！ 重要的事儿说三遍 都去左疯当政的国家吧 那里最适合 这是真心的建议 不是调侃 爱信不信
2026-08-01 10:16:56
我老婆發現了一個好東西 這包裝，哈哈哈🤣
2026-08-01 08:39:03
有人問，那地方又出新的『出入境管理規定』了，大盧你們不「苦口婆心」了？怎麼不再分析分析形勢，勸人趕緊辦護照，趕緊潤了？ 我喊了六年了，累了，聽得進去的，能跑的早跑了。現在我不喊了，因為沒啥用，如果非要喊點什麼的話，那我覺得現在最應該對海外常居的群體喊～換國籍，趕緊！
@xiaomustock
2026-08-01 17:31:52
gate有放钱的赶紧走吧， 不要跟自己的资金安全过不去。
2026-08-01 17:27:32
亚马逊2026 年 Q2 电话会中文翻译 今年早些时候，我们表示，计划在2026年投入约2000亿美元现金资本开支（Cash CapEx）。 其中绝大部分将用于支持 AI 和 AWS 的基础设施建设以及相关人员投入。 我们非常清楚，这些投资将带来十分可观的财务回报。下面我解释原因。 这项投资主要由两部分组成： 第一部分是数据中心（Data Centers）； 第二部分是部署在数据中心里的服务器（Servers）和网络设备（Networking Equipment）。 这两部分资产具有完全不同的资本投入周期。 数据中心通常需要提前约两年开始建设。 待数据中心建成后，我们再将服务器部署进去，即可开始产生收入。 一个数据中心一旦正式投入运营、服务器上线，我们几乎立刻便开始获得大量收入，并且这些数据中心未来30年以上都可以持续创造收益，而无需再次投入最初建设数据中心所需的大规模资本。 相比之下，服务器和网络设备属于更新周期较短的资产。 通常，我们会在正式投入使用前几个月才采购这些设备。 在决定采购之前，我们已经能够非常清楚地看到客户需求。 如果没有需求，我们就不会投入服务器和网络设备的资本。 平均而言，这类服务器投资不到三年即可收回成本（Break Even）。 目前服务器的使用寿命至少约为5～6年。 而如今，大多数 AI 算力合同的签约期限至少都是5年。 这意味着，在服务器和网络设备实现回本之后的未来2～3年，它们将持续产生大量自由现金流。 另外值得注意的是，AWS 一直拥有非常优秀的记录，能够不断缩短服务器投资的回本周期。 我们已经取得了实质性的进展，能够在不影响客户体验的前提下延长服务器设备的使用寿命。 对于寿命超过30年的数据中心而言，我们预计至少能够经历5～6代服务器升级。 正如前面所说，第二代、第三代以及之后的服务器，其整体经济效益都会优于第一代。 原因在于，我们无需再次投入最初建设数据中心的巨额资本。 因此，在短期内，由于市场需求迫使我们必须提前同步建设大量数据中心，而这些数据中心尚未开始产生收入，所以资本开支（CapEx）会维持在很高水平，自由现金流也会承受压力。 直到这些数据中心陆续上线并开始商业化运营之后，这种压力才会缓解。 随着服务器投入使用几年之后，收入增长最终将超过新增资本开支的增长速度——这一阶段迟早会到来。 届时，公司所产生的收入、自由现金流以及投入资本回报率（ROIC）都会非常具有吸引力。 我们其实在第一代云计算时代就已经经历过类似的发展过程。 只不过，当年的需求增长速度远没有今天 AI 时代这么快，而是更加循序渐进。 我们看到，如今 AI 业务的利润率和投资回报率，与当年 AWS 云计算业务发展到相同阶段时非常相似，甚至还要略好一些。 目前，我们预计2026年的现金资本开支将达到约2200亿美元。 相比此前约2000亿美元的预期有所提高。 主要原因是内存（Memory）成本上涨，推高了整体资本开支。 不过，即便投入达到2200亿美元，我们在2026年的算力仍然不足以满足全部客户需求。 我认为，这种供不应求的局面在2027年仍将持续。 事实上，我们目前已经收到的2028年需求规模都令人震惊。 请记住，目前企业客户在生产环境中大规模部署 AI 推理（Inference）仍处于非常早期阶段。 长期以来，我们一直认为 AWS 能够成长为一家数千亿美元年收入规模的业务。 而现在，我们认为它至少能够达到此前预期的两倍，并且非常有可能最终成为一家年收入达到1万亿美元的业务。 与此同时，它还将拥有极具吸引力的自由现金流和投入资本回报率（ROIC）。 上面那么多跟ai废话文学一样总结一下就是 亚马逊26q2ai核心观点： 开支：2200亿美元（原2000亿美元），主要因HBM/内存涨价。 需求：2026、2027算力仍供不应求，2028需求已非常强劲。 投资回本周期：服务器投资<3年回本，之后持续产生自由现金流。 数据中心寿命30+年，可支持5–6代服务器升级，后续ROI持续提升。 现金流状况：短期自由现金流承压，长期自由现金流和ROIC大幅增长。 AWS长期目标：年收入1万亿美元。
2026-08-01 17:13:24
刚进入8月还有一件大事，AI界的卷王DeepSeek正式更新V4 Flash ，ds flash已经逼近GLM-5.2，价格只有十五分之一。 ds 的Coding Agent和软件工程能力大幅提升，在终端操作、代码仓库修改和复杂开发任务上的表现明显增强； ds的AI Agent和工具调用能力明显增强，更适合连续执行多步骤任务； 针对Codex也做了适配，更方便接入各类AI编程和Agent工具。 这次升级是冲着Coding和AI Agent来的， 而且pro版本也很快要发布，那到时候真是要准备对着Cladue的核心coding业务干。 最值得关注的点是ds只用了2840亿参数就实现了接近对手万亿参数规模的智能水平， 全世界可训练参数规模再往上堆可能也就kimi这种2万多亿，他们参数堆到极限再往上空间不大了。但ds还有10倍的堆参数空间，正儿八经的性能优化调参的工程级卷王。 这一波不仅冲击了国内模型定价连带也必然冲击了国外ai的定价，如果ds 的pro版本coding能力逼近claude和openai，那么他俩的高价也必然无法维持都得降价。 降价就会被动带来海量的用量提升，数据存储压力倍增，对存储又反而是利好。市场对存储最大的担忧就是长鑫这条鲶鱼，而不是对存储需求的担忧。但实际这种担忧对业绩的影响是远期的，这种利好和利空的左右脑互搏，市场肯定会上下来回震荡，直到存储紧缺到市场所有人都难受的时候，可能路径才会再次明确。
2026-08-01 16:48:09
虽然过去一个月亏了35%，账户接近腰斩，但是今年存储带来的收益还能剩268%。 不再激进求获得多高的收益， 只求能稳定健康点，祝老板们以后财富长虹。回看真正稳妥的大机会都是黑天鹅式的， 去年关税战暴跌到170的台积电，80多的英伟达， 今年美伊战争暴跌下来的存储，美光，闪迪，铠侠，三星海力士，全都跌成了白菜价。 以及7月份的存储俩周时间闪崩腰斩， 市场是真不缺机会，更不缺黑天鹅。 以后打算长期保持个30%现金仓位学巴菲特蹲黑天鹅机会再下手，其他时间一点不动。像闪迪能一天拉40%，1000拉到1400。 这种时间直接梭哈带来的收益远超每年持有apy或者qqq平均带来的15%左右年化。
2026-08-01 16:36:15
刚进8月来了个鬼故事， 长鑫存储的lpddr6研发几乎完成，下半年就开始量产。 长鑫可以侵蚀掉dram份额， 不过三巨头的核心是hbm4，以及未来存算一体三位堆叠光电融合的共封装，这部分是 涉及到英伟达算力的hbm不可能撼动。美国佬不可能把算力交给长鑫来打包，而这是真正存储市场的爆发式的增长点。 长鑫吃国内厂商合作的存算一体hbm的算力基建也足够了，国家层面刚发了4万亿算力基建。
2026-08-01 03:44:41
不想发大财也不想赚更多的钱或者以往冒很大风险了。最近这一个月体感太差。 趁着meta财报暴跌了一波.把这俩天抄底解脱卖出来的钱刚553刀买了点 $META 占个1/5仓。 meta这个长期80%毛利，18%的年营收增速和类似腾讯社交的全球社交地位，这点一万亿市值还是令人着迷。 对比纠结了半天都处于财报暴跌的苹果和meta，一个4万亿一个1万亿，最终还是选了个meta数据上长期拿胜率更高点，营收增速下5年后4000亿美金，80%毛利就能冲到3000亿美金毛利，相比现在这个市值对我自己来说还挺心动。希望以后meta别瞎折腾了，搞搞新出的云业务可能比他之前一直瞎搞好，搞了一堆啥都参与了啥都没成。 后面不想像以前那么激进操作了，万一真遇到啥更大规模的黑天鹅人干没了没必要，把spy和qqq配置得提上日程，只用小于一半的资金撸最热的大市值概念，猥琐狗起来，降低预期，不贪就不返贫。 也降低发推欲望，时间花在打游戏和看资料看书洗脚按摩上肯定比一直盯着股票和推特更开心。
@aleabitoreddit
2026-08-01 14:24:58
$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs: Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory. And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand. This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expanding to CW, especially as CPO ramps. I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.
2026-08-01 06:52:21
The media framing and X reactions around Leopold are egregious. Framing his successful multi-year thesis from $SNDK to $BE as a "collapse" or "failure". After July's surprising crash, then personally attacking him on top is just pathetic to witness. It's almost like everyone is cheering for the downfall of others. Yes, July's crash exposed problems with SA’s leverage, liquidity management, and hedging. But his current YTD performance remains +80%, ranking among the best performing hedge funds. And he still has public equities after all this (just removed leverage). I think he's doing something unique while being successful at it. And this draws the envy of others.
2026-08-01 03:16:17
As a earnings recap: $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT guided a 2026 combined capex forecast to ~$720-$745 Billion. Up from $695-$725B Billion previously. Amazon: $220B Google: $195B-$205B Meta: $130B-$145B Microsoft: $175B We've already seen significant deleveraging and retail/institutional margin liquidations (maybe it continues for more time, who knows). But medium-long term, I'm not quite sure how anyone can be bearish the upstream semis or neoclouds. Given each hyperscaler has flagged either compute shortages, rising cloud demand + pricing power, or increased spending for chips/networking. My "bottleneck" thesis with many of these upstream semi supply chains is that when trillions in capital flows into things from InP substrates or memory (which were both treated as cheap commodities) or even energy. Lot of these current AI names that were treated as useless before in telecom cycles or even toilet sellers. Gets rerated when their inflection period hits and capex flows into their balance sheets. As seen with $NVDA GPUs past few years, memory this year, CPUs/MLCCs next few years, CPO in 2027, Glass Substrates in 2027, 800V in 2027, and so on.
2026-08-01 00:18:47
$RDDT ER in a nutshell: Revenue: $804.9M vs. $730.4M (expected). EPS: $1.25 vs. ~$0.95. Net income: $252.8M vs. $196.5M Q3 guidance: Revenue: $860–870M vs. 829.1M Adjusted EBITDA: $385-395M vs. $369M Blowout financials, market always like to explain the drop 22.6% off some new BS narrative. Last quarter: "AI will disrupt Reddit causing revenue loss!" This quarter: "See, DAU fell .6%!" (proceeds to ignore any revenue/profitability growth)
生成时间：2026-08-04T07:45:00.047Z