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📅 20260716 推文存档
📊 共 63 条推文
@aleabitoreddit
2026-07-16 23:57:05
My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE. A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0.
2026-07-16 22:54:42
Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.
2026-07-16 21:54:10
Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.
2026-07-16 21:06:22
I hope there's someone at X can fix this subscription bug. Many people are reporting that subscriptions don't renew anymore.
2026-07-16 00:56:28
Anthropic to IPO as early as October per Bloomberg. This is following their $65B financing at a $965 billion valuation last May. Hmm, would you all invest in Anthropic at a $1T+ valuation?
@xiaomustock
2026-07-16 23:54:08
冉莹颖跟这个品牌方不仅单呐，十指相扣，拳王皱市明钱不仅被这娘们败光了， 头顶说不定都是绿的，这眼神都拉丝了。
2026-07-16 15:15:12
投降了，剩下60%刚58卖了，太贪心了， 本来买的时候就想着有个75就走， 真到了反而贪心了， 几把人性呐， 太恶心丑陋。
2026-07-16 12:04:34
刚睡醒，又后悔没把剩下的60%也78卖掉，韩国人是真疯呐。
2026-07-16 00:31:07
海力士已经跌的不是大力士也不是海公公了，只能叫它海狗
@elonmusk
2026-07-16 23:38:19
RT by @elonmusk: It’s been very fast, and a pleasure to use. Nice work!
2026-07-16 22:49:07
RT by @elonmusk: Stacking Starship for Flight 13
2026-07-16 19:49:19
RT by @elonmusk: This feels like a scene out of a sci-fi movie but it’s just my drive to work this morning
2026-07-16 18:32:19
RT by @elonmusk: SpaceXAI has updated Zero Data Retention (ZDR) in Docs with more information
2026-07-16 16:44:48
RT by @elonmusk: Starship Flight 13 is flying today, and once again it’s going to make history Throwback: Amazing moment when a SpaceX employee met Elon Musk, gave him a hug, and was very optimistic about the Starship Flight “We will make it,” the employee said to Elon
2026-07-16 15:53:26
RT by @elonmusk: I swear, Grok Build adds about 60 points to my IQ which means I can experience what it's like to have an IQ in the top half of all humans while I'm using it.
2026-07-16 13:40:24
Arguing with NPCs is pointless
2026-07-16 13:30:20
Pinned: Image
2026-07-16 13:06:26
RT by @elonmusk: "@elonmusk is working on the most important areas of A.I. xAI is working on foundation cognitive intelligence A.I., Tesla is working on autonomous vehicles. Optimus is for humanoid robotics. He is very optimistic about the future of A.I."
2026-07-16 13:04:58
That’s how making a startup succeed goes
2026-07-16 08:49:19
RT by @elonmusk: Render mermaid charts in your CLI
2026-07-16 06:58:45
RT by @elonmusk: Usage limits are reset and Grok Build is open-source
2026-07-16 06:04:27
RT by @elonmusk: BREAKING: SpaceXAI sues Grok user accused of creating illegal deepfakes. Elon Musk previously warned that anyone using Grok to create illegal content would face the same consequences as someone uploading it. • A user created multiple accounts using false identities and repeatedly attempted to bypass Grok’s safeguards. • He uploaded photos of adults and minors and tried to turn them into CSAM. • SpaceXAI says its detection and reporting helped lead to his arrest. He now faces eight felony child-exploitation charges in South Carolina. • SpaceXAI has suspended 52,222 accounts and submitted 73,604 reports to NCMEC in 2026, contributing to at least 244 arrests.
2026-07-16 05:56:02
RT by @elonmusk: I've inspected the open-sourced Grok Build so you don't have to. Here's exactly what data it sends (and what stays local): Core (unavoidable)→ Your prompts/conversations + tool calls go to xAI's inference API. That's the whole point of the CLI. Everything else is off by default — no Mixpanel, no Sentry, no product telemetry unless you explicitly turn it on. Even the auto-update check is a simple version GET you can disable in config. Purely local stuff (crash reports, debug logs, secret redaction, auth) never touches the network. All telemetry paths also scrub secrets before anything is sent. Full details 👇
2026-07-16 05:10:27
RT by @elonmusk: Grok Build is now fully open source, and SpaceXAI has made its privacy-first approach even stronger SpaceXAI has officially: • Open-sourced the Grok Build harness CLI • Reset usage limits for all users • Disabled data retention by default • Deleted all previously retained coding data • Made the harness fully local-first, allowing you to run it with your own inference Since launch, Grok Build has supported Zero Data Retention (ZDR) for users who opted in Now, based on community feedback, SpaceXAI has gone a step further: Data retention is now OFF by default for everyone Your coding sessions remain private by default, with retention entirely under your control By combining an open-source harness, local-first execution, zero retention by default, and the deletion of previously retained coding data, SpaceXAI is setting a new standard for privacy in AI coding tools Transparent, open, and built to give users complete control over their data
2026-07-16 04:52:35
RT by @elonmusk: Starlink and the @JAAGOFoundation in Bangladesh are providing connectivity to 30,000 students across remote schools, giving each child the opportunity to develop digital skills that were not possible before 🛰️💓
2026-07-16 04:52:23
RT by @elonmusk: We've appreciated your feedback on X. Limits are reset, Grok 4.5 is available in the EU, and Grok Build is now open source.
2026-07-16 04:48:52
Grok Build is now open source
2026-07-16 01:29:19
RT by @elonmusk: I know I'm late but yeah ok Grok 4.5 is actually really good. It's super fast, direct path to solutions, and quite capable.
2026-07-16 01:29:09
RT by @elonmusk: Buying a Tesla is easy Order within 2 mins on our website, then complete the entire process in the Tesla app
2026-07-16 01:08:59
RT by @elonmusk: The sheer amount of energy it takes to defeat gravity is humbling, but a powerful reminder of what humanity is capable of. My photography is to hopefully provide an optimistic perspective of humanity's future among the stars.
2026-07-16 00:56:22
RT by @elonmusk: Rick Scott Is Right
@dianzhuXS
2026-07-16 19:49:50
【雷齋月限定｜一年僅此一次】 平日不接受公開報名，僅在「雷齋月」期間開放的「念經團」現在開始報名。（僅面向中國大陸以外地區，不接受中國大陸地區報名） 請注意，所有平台頻道的會員資費，包含的僅僅是收看各層級會員視頻節目資格。施食法會，還受生債法會是我們為答謝常年老會員念經功德，贈送的免費會員福利。 ·為什麼要參加「念經團」？ 真正的“難題化解”不在於一時的求助或花錢辦事，而在於本人常年持續的誠心懺悔。 加入「念經團」後，每月可免費參加本壇舉辦的「施食法會」，通過集體誦經、懺悔迴向，為累世冤親債主廣結善緣、消減怨結。集體念經同頻共振，主旨在於「人人為我，我為人人」。 更重要的是，「施食法會」是參加「還受生債法會」的必要前提。只有持續真誠懺悔、認真念經者，方有機會獲得參加進一步法會的資格。 另外，本壇近期準備增設一部《北斗經》，帶領念經團成員集體持誦，集中「北斗解一切厄」的眾念，同心同願、共同迴向，藉由大眾群念之力，廣結善緣，功德無量。 ·加入後可獲得哪些會員福利？ 1.會員專屬福利-可觀看各層級的會員視頻。 2. 每月可免費參加一次集體「施食法會」 由本壇統一準備甘露水、大米等法會所需法物，福主無需自行準備。您只需按時念經、真心懺悔、誠心參加即可。 3. 取得「還受生債法會」資格 連續參加「施食法會」三個月後，我們會在壇前打卦確認已誠心懺悔念經的福主，邀請參加「還受生債法會」。而未被通過的福主請繼續參加「施食法會」、誠心懺悔念經。 4.老會員專屬福利 連續加入「念經團」滿一年者，將視為常年老會員。老會員享有參加特殊法會及推薦新福主參加福利法會的資格。我們很多法會報名不對外公開，僅施行「老會員推薦制」。 ·「念經團」報名方式- 加入patreon會員 ※ 友情提醒：建議使用 Patreon 網頁版或 Android 手機加入會員。 若透過 iOS App 加入 Patreon會員，Apple 公司將額外收取平台費用（俗稱「蘋果稅」），該費用並非支付給本壇，而是支付給 Apple 公司。 加入 Patreon 平台會員後，可選擇等級：初級會員、高級會員或超級會員。 ※ 普通會員等級不屬於「念經團」會員，福利僅是收看會員視頻，無法享有任何法會福利。 · 報名流程及截止時間 ①先聯繫管理員告知您所在國家／地區（中國大陸地區勿擾）。 ②管理員確認後，將發送 Patreon 加入方式及各會員等級說明。 ③完成加入會員後，提供所需資料，即完成報名。 **農曆六月二十截止報名（東八區公曆：2026年8月2日） **管理員聯繫方式：郵箱cupidd166@gmail.com或 Tg電報@tutu_166 最後再次提醒各位，本次「念經團」成員公開報名僅在「雷齋月」期間開放，錯過後需待明年的「雷齋月」方可再次報名。若有意加入的福主，還請留意報名截止時間，以免錯過此次機會，過期不再受理法會報名信息登記，感謝各位的理解與配合。
2026-07-16 08:21:26
這就是我們去年，翻譯組都準備好了四國語言文稿，但我依舊按下了『讀經心得』出書暫停鍵的原因，我不怕，但我得為大家的安全著想。
2026-07-16 07:28:22
【立個旗】 有人說現在中國物價低，是的，但必須加個前提，您這是相對海外的工資標準來說的，韭菜集體返貧，物價不低，就真活不下去了。 說句口冷的，中國的這次「通縮」大概率比上回日本的那次還要長，幾十年內都看不見通漲的影子。 即使牠翠了，即使組織玩完了，還是沒希望的，經濟這東西與「繁榮」有關，但更與「穩定」有關。目前不繁榮，但還算穩定。坐穩了，既不繁榮又不穩定的歲月，還沒來呢😮💨
2026-07-16 07:08:39
【一句話乾貨】 這幾年，作為中文圈，不管是中簡還是正體，最需要注意的是～ 不承載牆國因果，不替別人擋災！ 過幾年回頭看，您就是大贏家💪
@Mimiwftt
2026-07-16 18:10:49
晚安💤
2026-07-16 17:35:26
Video
2026-07-16 15:01:56
恒生科技画线
2026-07-16 14:53:16
x.com/i/spaces/1qKVmmeeRgDxB
2026-07-16 14:52:17
去年科创50，1588我说短期见顶，一样骂声不绝于耳，说我踏空。哎😑
2026-07-16 14:50:39
一边是友情，一边是爱情，左右都不是为难了自己 。
2026-07-16 14:47:32
咱们是听完薛伯伯的直播再开呢？还是一起space听薛伯伯呢？
2026-07-16 14:40:59
这条推文下面之前很多跑来骂我的人，我真的是不明白了，你们有不同意见可以不听我的，坚持自己的逻辑拿稳就好了。 7/15，2周过去了，恭喜你们坚持在科技的人，都发财了吧。
2026-07-16 14:10:16
昨天刚提到他。🤣
2026-07-16 13:49:22
今天收盘后想听语音吗？你们有什么问题吗？
2026-07-16 13:41:11
R to @Mimiwftt: 散户T+1的交易模式，你要想想你今天买进去的，明天能获利出来吗？
2026-07-16 13:39:06
还是那句话，强势股不抄底，只能做强，没有底部形态，强势反转之前谁抄底谁死！ 熊市里跟多这种跳空低开后快速反弹诱惑散户短线资金抄底的形态，千万别上当！
2026-07-16 13:27:43
所以，你们大部分人并不需要天天要股票代码！ 会做的人一年只需要做好1-2只股票足够了。 这两年多少牛股，天天换，赚到钱了吗？
2026-07-16 13:22:31
量化程序选股一般监测到的是资金异动，但如果你的执行力不够，很有可能被短线资金反复收割。
2026-07-16 13:16:50
很多人用量化选股就觉得可以“无敌”了，其实并非如此，大多数人缺的不是“股票代码”，而是认知逻辑。
2026-07-16 12:50:26
你本金的多少决定你能扛得动多大的海浪🌊
2026-07-16 10:55:07
🤣🤣🤣
2026-07-16 10:09:23
昨天语音复盘中提到，高位科技方向散户拥挤度依然偏高，这是短期行情持续洗盘的主要原因。 主力洗盘的手法主要有两种： 一是通过宽幅震荡制造恐慌情绪，迫使持仓不坚定的资金离场； 二是以持续阴跌的方式消磨短线资金的耐心，进一步完成筹码交换，为后续行情蓄势。
2026-07-16 10:05:30
昨天复盘说今天会有一个修复，但主力的手法是跳空低开后修复，根本不给你解套的机会。
2026-07-16 09:48:51
科创50跳空下跌，M头形成（我之前提醒过要小心双顶） 回忆一下薛伯伯的那句话，“会兑现的赚不多，拿得住的跑不掉” 做短线波段完美吃肉的毕竟是少数，大多数普通投资者都是追涨杀跌一个月下来反而“亏损被套”
2026-07-16 09:07:45
是的。
2026-07-16 08:26:34
关于国内外宏观经济数据分析我推荐你们去看艾丽。
2026-07-16 07:49:48
时间允许的话还是多听一下语音复盘吧。 我用的中信证券的电脑版和手机app版，可以对照着学习。进步会很快。
2026-07-16 07:03:42
【井水不犯河水：交易最重要的是向内生长】 “井水不犯河水”，放在交易里，我理解为一种心态——向内生长，不受外界影响。 井水为什么清？因为它的水源来自地下，由内而发，不受外界环境左右。河水为什么容易浑浊？因为它一路流淌，不断受到周围泥沙、雨水和环境的影响。 交易也是如此。 市场每天都有各种声音，有人看多，有人看空；有人赚钱，有人亏钱。如果你的判断总是跟着消息、情绪和他人的观点变化，就像河水一样，很容易变得浑浊，失去方向。 真正成熟的交易者，更像一口井。 不断学习，不断复盘，不断完善自己的交易系统，让认知从内在生长。这样，无论市场如何波动，无论外界如何喧嚣，都不会轻易动摇自己的判断。 交易的底气，不是来自别人，而是来自自己的认知和纪律。 当你开始向内生长，守住自己的节奏，不被外界干扰，你的交易才会越来越稳定。
2026-07-16 06:19:34
我一直认为：这个世界上，没有人能够让你依赖一辈子。 父母会老，爱人会离开，朋友会有各自的人生，贵人可遇不可求。真正能陪你走到最后的，只有你自己，以及你掌握的能力。 所以，趁现在，赶紧学起来。不要等到需要的时候，才后悔当初没有行动。 也希望大家珍惜当下，趁着我还有激情，还有分享欲，还愿意把自己知道的、会的、经历过的，都毫无保留地分享给大家的时候，多学一点，多提升一点。 因为今天学会的一切，都会成为未来的底气；今天付出的每一分努力，都会在未来给你最好的回报。
2026-07-16 05:29:18
我昨晚说了“也许会有那么一天”不是说立刻马上现在。
2026-07-16 05:01:20
又熬夜了吧
@JonathanDi3614
2026-07-16 00:31:00
7月风格该均衡了。单边押注，最容易两头挨打。这个市场的博弈性向来如此——每次你想大干一场，就会被市场大干一场。 今日布局：粤电、中创 明天剧本怎么走？老登继续回血，还是小登开始反弹？医药退潮的话，小登是有机会的。今天吐槽段子明显多起来了，骂声一片——这是情绪临近冰点的信号。 懂的人自然懂：冰点之后，变盘就不远了。别倒在黎明前，也別急着满仓冲。方向要明确，节奏要踩稳。市场不会亏待清醒的人，但一定会惩罚情绪化的人。现在，你要做的就是冷静下来，看清筹码在谁手里。
生成时间：2026-08-04T08:16:02.316Z