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📅 20260626 推文存档
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@aleabitoreddit
2026-06-26 23:56:32
Morgan Stanley: Retained its forecast for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates through year-end (no rate hikes). Michael Gapen said incoming data since the June FOMC meeting has made it "marginally more comfortable" in its no-hike baseline.
2026-06-26 21:06:00
just throwing out a random thought, the UBS report is anecdotally true + and it's interesting there's more Chinese reports on Anthropic distillation. Many US startups/companies using AI: Are using Chinese models like DeepSeek since they’re much cheaper than Gemini/OpenAI/Anthropic reasoning models for cost per task. Kinda a catch 22 when US is built on capitalism and everyone goes for the cheaper options. I think the US just has to get good and out innovate here: - both with heavy KYC-auth frontier models for US only like Mythos given those are being distilled by competitors. and amybe staggered tiers for allied partners so US is always ahead Maybe something like dedicated AI Google auth like FaceID + Persona would do the trick before access/key creation for the newer models, then short lived scopes. At least addressing those simpler fake/stolen account + pool allegations, requiring biometrics before use. Then US Gov drafting new regulations making it illegal for sharing access similar to identity forgery with bank accounts. - then the most obvious one is just heavily optimized reasoning models that mogs DeepSeek and others. Kinda good Trump admin paused Fable/Mythos access, imo not quite sure why a trillion dollar company keeps letting itself get distilled over and over again. There should be friction added if you’re accessing something close to ASI. TLDR: US just needs to good at cheap inference and add bank-grade authentication to AI model access. Easier said than done tho.
2026-06-26 17:50:52
OFC I'm aware. But I'm personally sleeping comfortably since I have conviction in my hyperscaler mapping research with $SIVE. And yes, I still have my million+ share position. Not sure if people realize this: but I'm only here to share my thoughts/ideas. I don't control market volatility, what decisions you all make, or how markets react to new information synthesis. It's much safer for analysts to just reactively tag along Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan/Goldman Sachs research whenever it's created and just summarize. Rather than coming up with new ideas from OSINT mapping and waiting them get validated. Because when you discover a new angle: Everyone keeps heatedly debating topics of 4-6 inch InP fabs, employee count, who their hyperscaler customers are, volume ramp timelines, etc to try and play devils advocate with a thesis. Then actively monitoring every single 5-20% price movement. I'm forced to stay on this topic more since it's less validated + there's always heated discussions. Just like $EWY in Feb, which I did memory projections on + Helium/LNG/Oil analysis. But months later everyone sees memory looks structural with Micron's 16+ LTAs and LNG isn't taking down SK Hynix margins. Or $NBIS from last year in terms of sum-of-parts / dilution structures vs $IREN. And now it's close to ATHs and listed on $QQQ. I'm personally just waiting Sivers to volume ramp in 2027 + listing on NASDAQ to support their M&A efforts. So they can walk down the same path as $LITE when they scaled from $3B to $60B+.
2026-06-26 15:47:43
Just Elon Musk casually sounding the alarm. On the massive demand + price hikes for $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung memory relative to supply. He probably has higher visibility into the memory bottleneck than others…
2026-06-26 13:06:59
“What matters is not the eggs, it is the Goose itself” SoftBank probably down -13.5% today after markets saw this investor presentation today. Also the OpenAI IPO possible 2027 delay cause Altman wanted a $1T valuation might have been a small cause…
2026-06-26 11:51:47
There's a global correction right now, no clue when it stops. Kospi is down -8.18% (Sk hynix/Samsung) Nikkei is down -4.8% TWSE Index is down -3.82% As you've seen with $SOI or $RKLB dropping 30-40%. From personal experience, high beta stocks get hit a lot harder, but usually frontrun index drops. And they typically recover earlier? Aside from Korea which is typically volatile, when major indexes start correcting 3-4% a day, usually not a fun time.
2026-06-26 08:34:45
Looks like Power Semis are already starting price hikes. Which is bullish thematically for US power semi trade from $AOSL to $POWI, before the 800V DC shift fully hits. China's Yangjie Technology, announced a 2nd price increase this year, raising prices across its full product range by 10%-15%, July 1. Chongqing China Resources Micro, Silan Microelectronics, and NCE Power also price hiked. “Demand is playing a larger role than costs in the latest round of price increases” from AI DCs, to energy systems, and new EVs. Another potential beneficiary is the upstream material companies that make these: - nonferrous metals like copper and tin. -Plastic molding compounds - chemicals, and packaging consumables “Nearly all major Chinese power semiconductor makers have raised prices in 2026.” (Digitimes) So positive read through on power semi adjacent (reduce China-driven price pressure + better pricing + demand validation)
2026-06-26 00:55:54
Nah, gonna fill out the job application for $WEN and set up camp behind the dumpsters. Even $MU and $SNDK ridiculous performance today couldn't save my port. Cheering on Japan though, hoping Sweden gets mogged with a 2-0 to represent the 20% drop.
2026-06-26 00:15:27
oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GFS reference laser - laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up - $POET and others for CPO scale out - $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers - O-Net for ELS mass production So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck... And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward. The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization). You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop. The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out. But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media. With $AAOI at $10B, you have: - A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027. - With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs. And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m). Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS. This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu. I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.
@elonmusk
2026-06-26 23:52:06
RT by @elonmusk: I’m a gay man and I’m done staying silent. I survived bullying, the coming-out wars, and actual hate for who I am. What I won’t accept is importing millions from cultures where they throw us off rooftops, hang us, or jail us for life. Pride flags in Tehran? Laughable. Open borders + unchecked migration from places that treat gays like vermin isn’t “compassion” — it’s suicide for everything we fought for. Protect Western values or watch them disappear. Gay rights aren’t compatible with mass immigration from the most anti-gay societies on Earth. Change my mind.
2026-06-26 23:26:00
RT by @elonmusk: 100% correct. When I was at the Del Rio, TX Haitian bridge camp in 2021, many of the Haitians told me they had been living in Chile & Brazil for years before coming to the US illegally for economic (not safety) reasons. The Haitians were dumping & tearing up their Chilean documents at the river’s edge hide this fact from the US so it wouldn’t hurt their fraudulent asylum claims. The idea that all these Haitians came directly from Haiti after an earthquake or assassination is false. Many of them were living happily and safely for years in South America until Biden’s open border policies became too attractive to pass up. Others also flew into the US via Biden’s CHNV mass parole program which was supposed to be for only 2 year humanitarian parole grants. Of course, most never left.
2026-06-26 23:19:31
RT by @elonmusk: John Bolton once called for Edward Snowden's execution. He even fantasized how, saying Snowden "ought to swing from a tall oak tree." Bolton is now a convicted felon for mishandling classified information: not to inform the public but to profit off a book. Get the noose.
2026-06-26 22:01:25
RT by @elonmusk: Read this article. DEI has only one purpose, and it has nothing to do with social justice or equity. Every person carries a moral frame that precedes any training module: conscience, faith, community. Romans 2:15: the law written on the heart. DEI exists to displace it. The endpoint is moral authority reassignment. Away from God, family, country, conscience. Toward the NGO-Administrative Complex. That's what the training was always for: consultation transfer. The military was a top target because it had to be.
2026-06-26 20:20:36
RT by @elonmusk: Full duration single-engine static fire test of Starship
2026-06-26 20:17:35
RT by @elonmusk: BREAKING: Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez thanks @elonmusk and @Starlink for providing free connectivity after the earthquakes.
2026-06-26 20:05:23
RT by @elonmusk: When you came to Iceland in early June 2025 we had not yet started to see many of the consequences of the 2024 push to bring in people from Gaza (led by a group of women in an empathy rush). Since then, we have had a grooming gang being stopped by coincidence, revealing they had two teenage girls they had drugged in the car, a group of Hamas-connected men made an attempt to kill a person in a parking garage (on trial now, but one escaped to Jordan), another group attacked a 17 year (could have killed him) old because he had the reaction of punching the hood of their car as they drove over his foot, joined by people who came out of a nearby Kebab restaurant to help beat him up. We have gangs of kids from Gaza that are terrorising other children. We do not let our kids out the same way as before. We see pictures of them in expensive cars (how do they get expensive cars? – there was an effort to gather money to pay them out of Gaza) – some pictures with guns. Videos of them browing the horns of their cars to assert dominance. We hear their loud music in the night when they drive by our homes. There was an incident of a person walking a suburb with a machete during an argument (photographed from all angles). They (or other muslims) took over a shed by the airport that taxi drivers had to have coffee and go to the toilet and the denied everyone else entry (people that legally can use it and have used it for years) as they turned it into a place to pray. One woman, who had brought a "refugee" from Gaza and married him has now testified in an interview that he was indeed a violent Hamas member (good for her to admit that she was wrong and testify). All this is just the tip of the Iceberg and everybody that has eyes and ears sees and hears this. This is just little Iceland in about one year since you came here. Only the ideologically possessed can't see what is going on.
2026-06-26 20:02:49
RT by @elonmusk: Heute vor fünf Jahren, am 26. Juni 2021 fand man in Wien am frühen Morgen ein totes Mädchen auf der Straße. Leonie war gerade einmal 13 Jahre alt, als sie von drei Afghanen in einer Gemeindewohnung erst mit Drogen vollgepumpt und dann von allen vergewaltigt wurde. Letztlich starb sie laut dem Gerichtsgutachten einen Erstickungstod unter Einfluss der Überdosierung. Man fand das tote Mädchen in einem Wohngebiet. Die Täter hatten sie in einen Teppich gewickelt und wie Müll einfach draußen auf der Straße entsorgt und an einen Baum angelehnt. Bei den Ermittlungen kam heraus, dass ein Täter falsche Angaben zu seinem Alter machte. Gab er selbst an, er sei 16 Jahre alt, ermittelte das Gutachten ein Mindestalter von 20 Jahren. Einer der Täter floh nach der Tat nach England, konnte aber verhaftet werden und wurde nach Österreich überstellt. Zubaidullah R. wurde im Prozess im Dezember 2022 zu einer lebenslangen Haftstrafe verurteilt, Ibraulhaq A. zu 20 Jahren. Ali H., der angab, Leonies Freund gewesen zu sein, muss 19 Jahre in Haft.
2026-06-26 16:29:28
RT by @elonmusk: In Deutschland ohne Freigabe – Elon Musk stellt ganzen Film von Uwe Boll bei X online http://to.welt.de/QRrI3OS
2026-06-26 13:01:14
RT @GadSaad: Please watch.
2026-06-26 11:58:06
RT by @elonmusk: Please watch.
2026-06-26 11:55:27
RT by @elonmusk: Children are a blessing ❤️
2026-06-26 07:28:29
RT by @elonmusk: We exist and work so leftists can rule over us. Our labor and taxes get extracted to build and sustain political clients who deliver power to the left at home and extend its reach abroad. Democrats expanded welfare after the War on Poverty to turn black Americans into a captured voting bloc. The new programs discouraged marriage and work. The rate of out-of-wedlock births rose from 24% in 1965 to above 70%. Black support for Democrats locked in at 90% or higher and has stayed there. The identical approach runs with illegal immigrants now. Policies drive large inflows. Taxpayer money then covers housing, healthcare, food, and schooling in Democrat areas. Fiscal estimates place the net annual cost near 150 billion dollars. Census counting of non-citizens shifts House seats and electoral votes toward the party that sustains the inflows. Abroad, the same funds support left leaning movements and governments through foreign aid and grants. Billions flow to organizations and projects that advance the broader agenda. Domestic clients and foreign allies draw from one source, taxes taken from working Americans. The record shows the pattern without interruption. Welfare after 1964 produced long-term dependents whose votes reward the party delivering benefits. Current immigration policies expand the dependent pool and alter political arithmetic. Foreign spending projects the model outward. Productive labor funds all of it so the left maintains control. The numbers on family structure, fiscal transfers, voting loyalty, and power allocation line up exactly. So work harder and pay your taxes, peasant.
2026-06-26 06:47:08
RT by @elonmusk: BREAKING: Starlink is providing free internet for Venezuela after devastating earthquakes. • Free service through July 25 for people impacted by the devastating earthquakes in Venezuela. • The free service applies to both new and existing customers. • Starlink is also rapidly deploying terminals to the hardest-hit areas. Elon Musk is once again standing with people in need.
2026-06-26 06:04:32
RT by @elonmusk: AMERICA IS BUILDING AGAIN 🇺🇸 I went underground with @boringcompany checking out the MUSIC CITY LOOP — a massive 25-mile twin-tunnel system in Nashville that will move people from the airport to downtown with ZERO traffic @USDOT processed approval requests within 1 MONTH — that’s 6X FASTER THAN NORMAL Even better — the project used ZERO TAXPAYER DOLLARS This is the kind of innovation that is powering the next revolution in transportation
2026-06-26 05:51:52
RT by @elonmusk: 👀
2026-06-26 05:13:20
Soros is Magneto and his son is Mini Magneto
2026-06-26 05:09:28
Video
2026-06-26 04:51:57
Texas
2026-06-26 02:41:36
RT by @elonmusk: Grok Imagine Video has become the clear leader in @vercel AI Gateway, now amounting to ~50% of videos generated by developers 🤯 http://vercel.com/ai-gateway/leaderboards/video/models
2026-06-26 01:52:36
RT by @elonmusk: Nochmal, damit das alle verstehen, was in Deutschland passiert. Die gesamte deutsche MSM-Presse verliert kein Wort über Uwe Boll oder Citizen Vigilante. Ausnahme drei Artikel: Welt (hinter Paywall), web. de und t-online, je ein Artikel über die FSK. Sie müssen begreifen, was das zu bedeuten hat. Es gibt zentralisierte Mechanismen der Absprache, die bundesweit alle Zeitungen erreichen. Jedes Lokalblatt, jedes Magazin, jede große Tageszeitung. Von Deutschland ca. 1000 Zeitungen und Lokalblätter wurden nur zwei Artikel über das größte Filmphänomen des Jahrzehnts, das größte Gesprächsthema im Internet zum aktuell meist diskutierten politischen Thema in Europa veröffentlicht. So gleichgeschaltet, so kontrolliert ist die deutsche Presse! Vergessen Sie das nie! Die deutschen MSM-Medien sind reine Propaganda. Alle und immer!
2026-06-26 01:33:57
RT by @elonmusk: Women are not suitable for dealing with the amount of violence necessary to maintain civilization. This is, again, because women are wired to care for babies with whom "zero" violence is the correct amount. This is why the central problem of Western Civilization is childless women with political power. Civilization requires continuity, past and future, and thus it belongs only to those that create said future. Allowing childless people authority over civilization is fundamentally suicidal.
2026-06-26 00:50:48
Tim Cook, who told The Wall Street Journal that the jump in costs was unlike anything he had seen “in any area in over 40 years.” Biggest price jump in anything I’ve ever seen too. https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-data-center-boom-is-sparking-a-third-wave-of-inflation-926adc6e?st=oU4UNF
2026-06-26 00:45:41
Video
2026-06-26 00:43:35
Well said
2026-06-26 00:00:41
Griffin and Xavier 20 years ago
@xiaomustock
2026-06-26 23:12:34
马斯克也说产量和需求之间有巨大鸿沟， 马斯克的规划要非常庞大的存储量，除非马斯克上手自己造存储芯片，不然它的几个业务都不挣钱买不起海量的存储。
2026-06-26 19:52:22
AI的门槛超乎想象的高，互联网根本不是一个级别，不是互连网那种是个程序员都能干的。 你会敲个代码，能买个域名，自己就能捣鼓个网站干互联网产业。 AI你没有千亿万亿资金，什么也做不出来， 而拥有这个水平资金玩得起AI的，全球合起来都没多少家。 真正意义上的玩家俩只手数得过来。 所以赢家的范围非常小。
2026-06-26 19:44:08
而且即使一旦发生AGI时刻，这些大厂原有购买到的存储卡算力卡也都会瞬间变成恐怖的印钞机。 人们觉得泡沫觉得要到头了， 是因为AI发展俩仨年了，人们还没有见过真正意义上能取代他们生活工作的超强AI，只觉得依照这种目前的Ai状态只能停留在手机电脑的聊天框里，他们似乎没有多大的价值。 这是对AI太弱小的嘲讽。
2026-06-26 19:38:26
现在确实是AI非常早期的阶段， 大厂之所以巨额投入， 就是想通过自己海量的算力，海量的存储， 抢先干出AGI时刻， 那就是赢家通吃的时刻， AI瞬间席卷摧毁变革所有行业， 赢家会成为人类有史以来市值最庞大的公司 你不投入不卷算力卷内存卷人才，那么你最终突破的几率就比别人少一点， 一旦突破的不是你， 那市场最终只有1和0。 为啥国内的智驾汽车卖不到美国， 跟特斯拉满血fsd比它就是1，其他就是0。 即使有人买也是美国底层傻逼实在是太多，智力分层严重。 我们此刻的恐惧，担忧，都受限于我们的想象力。老黄让康宁扩产10倍，总不能还没扩产AI没了，你聪明还是老黄聪明，你有远见还是老黄有远见。 他之所以提前让康宁扩大10倍的产能就是不想再未来下个阶段的产品重蹈存储三巨头的覆辙。康宁在英伟达下个阶段产品中对老黄太重要了。
2026-06-26 19:28:02
AI有泡沫，但AI没有丝滑的取代所有白领的工作前就不可能破。路途遥远。 所有的脏活累活AI机器人干， 所有复杂耗时的脑力活动AI干， 现在的agent还很弱智。 现在的AI也没有普及进入每个人的生活， 你们现在所从事的工作没有被AI取代， 说明AI的泡沫破灭还路途遥远， AI都还没理解物理世界， 只在文字层面和虚拟空间挣扎， 跌一跌的很正常， 真到哪头满大街的机器人外卖员， 机器人服务员，机器人厨师， 所有的科技创新，创意，AI最终都会比人类干的更好，但现在远远没有， 等吧，泡沫最起码也是agi来临后。
2026-06-26 18:45:54
在未来某个时刻存储降价开启的时刻，可以第一时间梭哈苹果，因为售价不变利润率飙升，预期财报利润暴涨。 对英伟达刚开始利空，长期也是利好，因为现在的英伟达是存储的搬运工，存储降价的时候，英伟达的产品不一定降价，利润也会暴涨，这也是这一年多英伟达不涨的原因。
2026-06-26 18:41:37
存储三家海力士三星美光合起来市值应该要比英伟达值钱。 三家可以不造hbm直接卖dram， 但英伟达不买hbm，营收就归零了。 话语权更大的一方应该享受更大的市值。
2026-06-26 11:18:09
充分证明了一点，找男女朋友一定不能找韩国人，韩国人的情绪无时无刻都处于暴怒爆喜来回跳跃。
2026-06-26 11:02:25
又全崩了，康宁 $GLW 和日月光 $ASX 硬气，海力士正股跌的有点麻。 市场现在慌得一逼， 涨了慌，跌了也慌， 我也慌。
@dianzhuXS
2026-06-26 11:29:33
陳士和老前輩，怹老人家算是我們這一枝，評書門的老祖了。我兒子新官上任（點燭電子報主編），翻家裡的舊書庫，把這幾本『聊齋』翻出來了。這可不是『聊齋誌異』，是老前輩們口述的「書道子」。犬子正在看『羅剎海市』寫讀後感了。嗯，幹正事的了，我很開心。
2026-06-26 09:03:48
這幾天使用「電子報」，我感覺挺驚艷，尤其平台對創作者的「公平合作」理念，和對流量放權的軟件設計初始架構，很自由。看大家普遍反映，對新平台也是比較認可，聽眾功能強大細節滿滿。接下來我們會加大在新平台的獨家更新頻率，比如直播後我親自作重點筆記⋯⋯希望能多一個落腳地，狡兔三窟知行合一，謝謝大家的陪伴和支持。
2026-06-26 07:32:26
一些常年跟隨我，念經團的老會員，如果您還是身在牆內出不來，就領悟一下「透明」二字吧。我相信，大家這麼多年的經不是白念的，多少都有點「智慧」了吧。咱們戰勝自己的表達欲，應該不難。 在那個地方，咱惡事絕不能做。但請注意，善事也不是都能公開去做。在喪屍堆裡，做個正常人肯定就很危險，讓牠們知道你是個正常人也不安全。 什麼也不做反倒比做強。無奈，但這就是現實😮💨
生成时间：2026-08-04T08:16:02.329Z