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📅 20260609 推文存档
📊 共 36 条推文
@aleabitoreddit
2026-06-09 22:57:11
I don’t quite think photonics from $AAOI to $LITE or $SIVE are disappearing anytime soon…
Just extremely volatile.
Anyway, curious what other people are buying today?
2026-06-09 21:54:06
$EWY 32% IV into 58% IV expansion trade.
Into underlying SK Hynix / Samsung increase way ITM.
Was such a goated call? (~383% return)
Had way too many great ideas this year…
Still super proud of predicting South Korea index volatility increase due to memory concentration
2026-06-09 19:52:27
Names like:
- $ASX
- Sumitomo Electric
- $JBL
- $VICR
- $GFS
- $AAOI
- AlChip
- $TSEM
- $FN
- Furukawa Electric
- $CLS
- $NBIS
- $NOK
- $AMKR
- $LITE
- $COHR
Off the top of my head.
So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range.
Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit?
(Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above)
I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns.
Still feels like many of these have room to go.
2026-06-09 16:37:12
Given my recent popularity, might be a good time to put out a PSA.
Early followers have known this from the start:
- I don't do any paid promotions, paid marketing, or accept outside gifts.
But I appreciate all the recent outreach from companies!
If you see or engage with something online related to any type of payment, it's fabricated for engagement or a scammer.
The reason I don't want to is because I'm just posting on X for fun, and when money is involved it turns into a job (which I don't want it to feel like).
Also, well off personally so I've never felt influenced by anyone outside.
- The only "paid" thing I have is $1 subscriptions. That's all.
From the very start, I've never taken a single penny outside of X subscriptions/creator sharing. Which is why I say in my bio:
"I only use X, beware of imposters."
Anyone approaching you to share an external community or app is a scammer or imposter.
It's just very frustrating that people still fall for these impersonators.
- I'm just one person posting my thoughts online.
-> Not some institution or Illuminati team.
Quality of research is "high" because I have a technical background. And I genuinely do this as a hobby researching supply chain ideas.
There's not some "hidden" motive like a paid research group from Asia, it's just fun lol.
- I will always disclose positions if I have them or if I don't. Very open and transparent about it.
With Chinese equities I'm just posting research in hope it benefits people find conviction in critical companies in global supply chains.
I don't have any positions / any financial incentives (so I can be impartial), and haven't privately discussed with anyone about ideas I post beforehand.
Maybe it happens in Asia, but in the US it's highly illegal to be running groups or getting paid to post about companies.
I'm just posting my ideas for free without outside influence, in case others like the idea.
It probably seems odd, but I'm doing this as a hobby and for fulfillment of helping others.
- I'm staying anonymous so I can just freely post my ideas online.
Reason being is after I first posted negative things about $IREN, I would have a lot of personal IRL threats and harassment from dozens of accounts for me to stop.
Don't want any personal safety or people around me to be at risk for just publishing free research online.
Anyway, goal is to help out retail investors with free information synthesis; rather than just selling that directly to institutions.
I'm sure this positive sum model might anger people along the way (who have expensive paywalls, or financial incentives) that might feel threatened by information democratization.
But genuinely just sharing day-to-day thoughts for free.
Very surprised by recent popularity but it helps me distribute compelling ideas to more people.
And grateful Elon / X gave me an opportunity through X.
2026-06-09 15:21:45
A massive catalyst arrived today with $SIVE:
Sivers announced $8.2M volume orders starting for Space applications (allspace).
This is for Beamforming ICs powering Space LEO/multi-orbit satellite communication.
The bigger implication is not the contract size:
But that Sivers now powers a larger defense prime in $YSS following their allspace acquisition (similar to $MRVL design-in with Celestial).
Which typically leads to more follow-up orders + volume contracts for Sivers, rather than just this specific contract.
Turns out Sivers is also a Space/Defense supply chain chokepoint (ahead of SpaceX IPO) on top of their photonics AI DC sector lasers...
This win aside, I'm expecting more volume ramps to be coming soon as well from their photonics side (looking at you Jabil + other pluggable makers)
2026-06-09 14:44:07
Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B.
Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet.
Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand.
They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines.
Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest.
So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain.
Don’t currently have positions, just throwing out a thought for others to do research on.
Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rereating seems plausible?
(dont have any open positions, just a thought)
2026-06-09 13:42:08
I do see a lot of comments about "harvesting the leeks".
And I hope my picks like LeaderDrive can help change that perspective around certain equities being good long term holds.
I think my only Chinese listed pick was Innolight last year, and that's up triple digits to ATH?
All my ideas come from a Western perspective (eg. institutional research from JP Morgan / Goldman Sachs I synthesize) and what US hyperscalers like $GOOGL or $MSFT require.
And I do consider about geopolitical tensions + game theory all the time, such as with $AXTI.
I think a foreigner's perspective brings a different kind of alpha here, and I'm excited to share how this plays out.
Regardless, I'm excited to see how adventures in Chinese equities go!
(also, I'm just 1 person posting thoughts throughout the day. there's a lot of conspiracy theories going around saying I'm some Chinese institution.
and yes, English is my primary language, i typo sometimes since I post 20+ a day on mobile mostly).
2026-06-09 09:58:57
我怎么有种奇怪的感觉…
我的中国粉丝是不是都在等我喊新票啊 lol？
我看好的标的（比如 688017 绿的谐波）通常都是做长线，可不是只拿几天就走！
不过，这周我确实会再去挖几个新机会研究一下。
2026-06-09 09:25:40
Can someone tell me what caused $INHD to go up 3660.95%?
2026-06-09 08:59:36
Nah, Jim Cramer is like the 4th Newton’s Law.
Inverse Cramer just written into the laws of the universe.
I’ve been bullish on $RDDT since $140.
But Cramer was telling everyone to buy Reddit the entire time since Feb.
So it’s been flat.
2026-06-09 08:25:18
For people out there citing Bank of America quotes now about selling.
Just remember:
They said $EWY/ KOSPI (SK Hynix/Samsung) was an extreme bubble back in March.
And blamed retail for the cause, then implied they should sell Korean memory equities: comparing it to the 2008 financial crisis, .com bubble, and Silver crash.
Then shortly after retail sold their longs, memory rallied to all time highs.
Institutions are not your friends.
Usually when an unusual flood of negative news, they need liquidity.
@xiaomustock
2026-06-09 22:19:29
麻了，又直线下跌📉
2026-06-09 21:50:23
英伟达机柜这里面存储占300万美金的成本项，其他的概念都是占几万u甚至几千u少得可怜的，没有规模就没有利润，其他都是虚头巴脑的，就存储是真的， 其他的就是股民的幻想。 按照马斯克和黄仁勋的长远眼光看待存储， 就是继续短缺到2030年， 产能翻倍都远远不够。 $DRAM $MU #2x海力士 #2x三星
2026-06-09 13:26:27
炒股这玩意每个人都不是神仙，暴跌抄底抄早了把自己抄成满仓最好还是装死。 如果自己选股眼光不行，就上行业指数比如 $DRAM 或者 $SMH 这种，变相帮自己广撒网。 如果嫌自己资金少，就2x看多etf，甚至如 $SOXL 这种三倍看多半导体。 美股每次跌了都是好机会。
2026-06-09 13:00:27
高频短线交易则是停留在打工人思维，想着靠短线每天挣点，除非你是天选打工人，否则很难发财甚至大部分人都肯定最终亏钱。
而长期持有只在特定情况调仓是老板思维， 如果你的眼光和认知配得上你的财富，拥有足够远见，则早晚必定发财。
2026-06-09 02:03:30
之前这张英伟达 $NVDA 的Vera Rubin NVL72成本图变化了，之前是780万美金预估，系基于过时的内存价格，严重低估了实际成本。伯恩斯坦分析师Stacy A. Rasgon给出了机架成本910万美元的预估底层逻辑。
GPU仍是最大单项成本。报告显示，Rubin GPU每颗5.5万美元，每个机架配备72颗GPU，GPU成本为396万美元，占机架总成本近半。每机架36颗Vera CPU合计成本约18万美元。
当前HBM 4价格约为每GB 16.6美元，但预计到2027年Vera Rubin大规模出货时，价格将升至每GB约53美元。伯恩斯坦预计该项成本约为320万美元，远高于此前根据历史价格预估的200万美元。其中，HBM 4贡献约109万美元，CPU DRAM（LPDDR5X）约80万美元，直连存储约128万美元。
网络、冷却与供电合计成本200万美元。网络成本约127万美元，包括NVLink交换机约25万美元、线缆约24万美元、背板及其他规模扩展组件约38万美元，以及SpectrumX交换机约20万美元；冷却约16万美元，供电约15万美元。
@dianzhuXS
2026-06-09 17:50:45
我就記錄一下，你們忙你們的，不用說「準」啦，麻木了🤗
2026-06-09 13:54:20
菲律賓
2026-06-09 13:28:53
另外，請睜眼看看現在的日韓關係，這是日本首相高市早苗的原文，推特目前已經開源翻譯功能了，不懂日文也應該能看懂吧。 美國怎麼會放棄韓國？放棄了韓國，日本呢？台灣呢？ 誰在挑動是非「恨韓」 為習豬大東亞共榮2.0找突破口，大家自己分辨吧😮💨
2026-06-09 11:54:30
問一聲啊【朝鮮二豬會】啥情況了？沒消息呢？
2026-06-09 09:00:54
所有到我這裡「恨韓」的，我開始拉黑。李在明親中，韓國不親中。李在明有帳號，你們去他推特下留言罵去唄，來我這裡倒什麼髒水？ 你的情緒禍害你自己就好，別來帶上我，我又不是你家長，不會慣著你！
@elonmusk
2026-06-09 16:21:00
RT by @elonmusk: This is the UK
2026-06-09 04:52:22
The level of fraud here is mind-blowing
2026-06-09 04:49:35
The system is rotten
2026-06-09 04:28:09
Wow https://x.com/i/grok/share/52ed880e9a534c1c9b522c5030c14156
2026-06-09 03:55:21
RT by @elonmusk: 🚨BREAKING: A petition demanding the officers who arrested Henry Nowak are prosecuted has just hit 200k signatures
Britain wants JUSTICE! 🇬🇧
2026-06-09 03:05:44
🇰🇷🇰🇷 Korea is Awesome 🇰🇷🇰🇷
2026-06-09 01:08:25
RT by @elonmusk: People demanding "proof" of election fraud are not understanding how crime works. I worked at Manhattan DA for over 2 years, one in Homicide. We never had video proof of the crime. We almost never had DNA. These are things that occur on CSI on TV, not in real life. And we still convicted people all the time.
What we had was testimony and circumstantial evidence. Travel times, bank records, cell phone data, gate access codes. Motive, capability, benefit, time and place. Never direct proof. Of course the defendant always denied the crime, but there was enough evidence to show that one had to have occurred nonetheless.
If what we have in the LA Mayoral election is a statistical anomaly that is beyond reasonable explanation with anything besides fraud, that is enough to prove a crime. This has been true since the beginning of Western Civlization.
2026-06-09 00:49:02
RT by @elonmusk: Let's recap the weekend:
-Billy Schmidt (a 22-year-old Penn State student) was murdered by two black men over a phone in South Philadelphia. -Louis Erebia (a 56-year-old father of 5) was murdered by a black man with a long criminal history in Houston while trying to help recover a stolen truck. -Six people were randomly stabbed at Penn Station in New York City by a homeless man in what police described as a senseless attack.
This isn’t “random violence”, it's preventable, and the direct result of left-wing policies that value criminals over citizens.
2026-06-09 00:34:42
RT by @elonmusk: The American people want Voter ID.
Politicians refuse to enact it.
There is only one logical conclusion here…
2026-06-09 00:33:43
RT by @elonmusk: Grok Imagine Video 1.5 Preview has officially taken the #1 spot in Image-to-Video generation on Design Arena
• #1 overall with a 1357 Elo rating • Massive 49-point lead over the next-best model • Ahead of Seedance 2.0 and Seedance 2.0 Fast
It established a new Pareto frontier in AI video generation, delivering state-of-the-art quality while simultaneously being faster and more cost-efficient than competing models
The model averages just 41.2 seconds per generation while maintaining top-tier output quality
Most AI labs optimize for one metric
xAI is improving quality, speed, cost efficiency, and product capabilities all at the same time
That’s an incredibly difficult combination to achieve
2026-06-09 00:33:10
Once voting is this fraudulent, they can get whatever outcome they want, making a sham of democracy
2026-06-09 00:31:59
No more discrimination
2026-06-09 00:30:35
Suicidal empathy becoming homicidal empathy
2026-06-09 00:23:17
Choice of narrative is the biggest lie of the legacy media
2026-06-09 00:21:47
RT by @elonmusk: Image
生成时间：2026-08-04T08:16:02.340Z