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📅 20260719 推文存档
📊 共 35 条推文
@xiaomustock
2026-07-19 23:48:21
假如说此时kimi高价买了一大堆推理卡内存卡，等能到货安装运行的时候，如果被gpt或者ds或者别的claude反超远远拉开，这买的推理卡和内存卡是不是打水漂了或者收效甚低也错过了在模型领先时刻爆赚的红利。 云厂恰恰能解决所有大模型公司的这种顾虑。
2026-07-19 23:44:58
真正利好的是谷歌和亚马逊这种云厂。 不管谁的模型突然又又领先， 那么云厂都能给调配算力过去， 而不是大模型公司自由算力在领先的时候爆赚在落后的时候爆亏。 云厂是不管谁领先，它的生意都越来越大需求越来越旺，它都能吃到调配算力的溢价。 而谷歌兼具大模型和云厂俩大业务真可能被他笑到最后，模型一时的领先对谷歌来说不重要了。
2026-07-19 23:32:41
再牛逼的模型，想把模型实力转化成收入， 那你就必须要有海量的内存卡和推理卡， 不然破天的富贵你把握不住， 所以你说内存和推理卡缺不缺？ kimi再牛逼能怎么样，富贵来了新增订阅都接不住。
2026-07-19 23:24:04
这倒不是，现在主要需求是内存和推理卡，这部分是面向客户的，内存和推理卡越多能转化成的收入越多。 能达到kimi这个水平只是说明训练卡可能不需要特别顶尖一堆烂卡依然能训练出来顶尖模型， 但你你想转化成收入那就需要海量内存和推理卡为用户服务了。
2026-07-19 23:15:49
明天又要搏命了，感觉soxl没skhynix稳，怕他娘的美股再跌个10%亏个大的我人没了直接换成了韩股sk。 这俩天kimi这个太热了，导致老外认识到大模型公司没有任何护城河，没几天就被别人干掉，今天gpt干gemini，明天claude干gpt。 市场可能会重新思考什么类型的公司是真正有稳固的护城河的。 能被kimi竞争登顶出现，很可能会被华尔街觉得长期利好谷歌，因为目前任何一家大模型公司谁能熬得过谷歌？稳固的现金流稳固的业务作为护城河，现在不管哪个模型领先，最终可能都是谷歌领先，它可以慢慢追，追到所有ai军备竞赛的大模型都耗尽家财，谷歌还有源源不断的血液继续干gemini。
2026-07-19 23:02:00
对于顶尖的模型来的算力和内存一直紧缺， 差生只是文具多才出租算力。
2026-07-19 08:38:19
你们是什么时候开始知道hbm存储的
@elonmusk
2026-07-19 22:14:04
RT by @elonmusk: The faster we reach better intelligence, the faster we reach abundance, and the faster we stop having to fight over anything at all.
2026-07-19 21:35:51
RT by @elonmusk: Back then she was a young 55 year old with crazy ideas
2026-07-19 17:00:41
RT by @elonmusk: Image
2026-07-19 15:19:17
Video
2026-07-19 12:05:25
Try Grok Build
2026-07-19 06:55:11
RT by @elonmusk: Throwback to 2014: Elon Musk gives a tour inside the brand-new Dragon V2 An early glimpse of Elon showing America the spacecraft that would eventually restore its ability to launch astronauts into orbit from its own soil
2026-07-19 03:29:14
RT by @elonmusk: Gold rush
2026-07-19 02:23:39
RT by @elonmusk: Every person living in a western nation needs to listen to every word of this Katherine Berbalsingh went to the University of Oxford and is Headmaster at Michaela Community School in London, UK She PERFECTLY explains the mass indoctrination into the narrative of oppressor and oppressed, and of hating White People I will write only some of this out because it’s very important, however you should listen to it so you can hear the passion: “The culture shift comes from what children learn at school and online. Ask any young person what history they learned at school, and they’ll tell you, Hitler. Ask them what else? Slavery. Ask them what else? American civil rights. In fact, what little they know of history will be all about Black and brown people fighting for equality against the white man, women fighting men for the vote, gay and trans people fighting for various rights. Our young people have been taught that history is simply one long story about various groups struggling under the oppressive dead white man. — History is taught through an oppressor lens. The triangular slave trade, white men held the power. What about Britain ending the slave trade? More than a quick mention, if at all? Mm, no. What of the Arab slave trade that lasted 3 times as long as the triangular slave trade? Mm, no. Okay, so GCSE history in Britain is often taught as migration through time, so the idea that Britain has always been a land of immigrants is embedded in our children’s heads. Most schools would prefer to concentrate learning about the tiny number of Black people who existed in Tudor England over a thorough analysis of England’s break from Rome. — Not to mention weeks on King Mansa Musa of Mali because he was a Black Muslim. His bearing on British institutions, laws, and faith is nonexistent. And the fact that he is said to have been the richest man in history, thanks in part to his massive slave-owning society, is a detail somehow that teachers rarely ever teach. But it isn’t just our schools. It’s our general culture too. Take your kids to a museum or an art gallery in any Western country, and you’ll find the same narrative. As an example, when learning about aviation in London’s Science Museum and the extraordinary feat that is man making massive machines move in the sky, a write-up on the wall explains that women and Black people were historically barred from aviation schools and the military. Similarly, James Watt, the man who invented the steam engine and is considered the founder of the Industrial Revolution, has a write-up on the wall explaining that his early career involved slave trafficking, with a bonus analysis of the whole of Britain’s complicity in the slave trade. They flatten the entire human story and all of its complexities into the narrative of oppressor and oppressed, leaving young people unable to see the world in any other terms.” We have to end the mass indoctrination
2026-07-19 02:12:10
RT by @elonmusk: Big updates next week 😃
2026-07-19 00:45:18
Robot fights are fun 😂
@dianzhuXS
2026-07-19 20:30:06
x.com/i/spaces/1pKkOOzWjWVKj
2026-07-19 17:05:17
乾貨，不解釋（Substack 同步直播）https://x.com/i/spaces/1pKkOOzWjWVKj
2026-07-19 10:29:58
有毒的基本盤，簡稱「毒盤盤」
2026-07-19 08:05:33
來條短的 目前牆國的走勢 結局無非就兩個可能性 一個亂死 一個爛死 沒有第三種😮💨😮💨😮💨
2026-07-19 07:56:39
跟2019年比是的 不過嘛 過5年再比 那時再買 是又少打了30年工 要論中國的房價 還是馬雲說的對 【房價如蔥】 不是形容詞，是真如蔥！
2026-07-19 06:54:44
身在海外的朋友們，請注意一個事實。 毛賊東活了83歲，蔣禿子活了88歲。 港真，咱們現在的醫療條件和食品安全，比這倆貨當年也不差。 只要不內耗，遠離「憂思悲恐驚」順應自然，每個人活到100歲以上都很簡單。 我們頭上沒有獨裁，身邊沒有毒空氣，吃的沒有高科技與狠活，最重要的沒有運動和戰亂，大環境友好，生活有盼頭。說實在的，也沒啥真正值得焦慮的事。 只要智慧一些，別用別人的錯誤懲罰自己，遠離傻逼壞逼，大部分人長壽已是必然，哦耶💪
@Mimiwftt
2026-07-19 20:13:50
下周钱就回来了，晚安💤
2026-07-19 19:52:43
我看可以。其实炒股是我最拿不出手的一件事。😈😈😈
2026-07-19 19:07:52
以后我想尽可能语音聊天吧！少码字，就把这里当朋友圈，分享生活日常挺好的。
2026-07-19 18:54:36
又辛苦课代表了
2026-07-19 16:51:10
我希望大部分人做中长线，做投资，别做投机。 把精力放在现实的工作，生活，家庭里。这才是人生最重要的东西。
2026-07-19 14:59:30
有问题留言在这里
2026-07-19 14:58:08
x.com/i/spaces/1lJQRRPYrqvxE
2026-07-19 11:34:51
R to @Mimiwftt: 儿子这两天回家钦点了些他想吃的。
2026-07-19 11:27:21
午餐变四川人了
2026-07-19 09:58:12
下午中国时间15点space
2026-07-19 07:32:09
Pinned: 【mi姐说】 很多人目前还在纠结市场到底是牛市还是熊市，但如果单从流动性的角度来看，我认为目前依然处于牛市周期，只不过不是传统意义上的全面牛，而是典型的结构性牛市。结构性牛市的核心特征就是资金集中在少数主线赛道，市场呈现明显分化，而非普涨格局。 回顾2025年以来的行情，市场经历了普涨阶段后，资金逐渐向科技成长方向集中，AI、算力、机器人、半导体等科技板块成为资金抱团的核心，赚钱效应高度聚焦；而消费、医药、新能源以及部分周期板块，则更多处于震荡调整或轮动修复阶段。因此，与其说现在是全面牛市，不如说是科技主导的结构性行情。 而接下来市场真正值得关注的，并不是牛熊之争，而是资金风格是否会发生切换。未来大概率有两种演绎路径： 第一种，是科技抱团开始瓦解，高位板块进入结构性熊市，资金兑现离场，市场整体风险偏好下降，指数也随之承压。 第二种，则是科技板块经过高位震荡消化估值，并没有出现系统性退潮，而是由银行、券商、保险等大金融，以及中字头、高股息、核心蓝筹等低位权重接力，形成新的增量资金共振，推动指数继续震荡上行。在这种情况下，科技负责维持市场人气，蓝筹负责抬升指数，两者形成接力，行情将从单一主线演变为更加健康的轮动牛市。 因此，现阶段真正需要观察的，并不是简单判断牛市还是熊市，而是密切关注市场资金是否开始由科技单一抱团，逐步向低位权重和顺周期方向扩散。如果扩散成功，那么结构性牛市有望进一步演变为更广泛的行情；如果始终只有科技独木难支，而其他方向迟迟无法接力，那么科技板块一旦出现明显松动，市场也将面临更大的调整压力。 未来一段时间，资金流向、板块轮动以及指数与科技板块之间是否能够形成新的共振，将是决定市场下一阶段运行方向的关键观察点。
2026-07-19 07:03:29
昨天做的凉皮，有人说“姐是陕西人呀” 今天一早给儿子做的煎饼果子，所以我是哪里人呀？
生成时间：2026-08-04T08:16:02.315Z